basketball, draft
Joined June 2022
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353 Photos and videos
Newest project: Statistical Height
Projects how tall a player is based solely on their statistical profile.
Aimed to see how “big” a player actually plays based on performance in stats positively correlated with height, independent of their listed height.
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The ultimate boon to the possession economy in a game where the Knicks needed every single one down the stretch. Makes $4.5 million. Traded for Dalen Terry
The good news if your team missed out? The best PE guard in the NBA is a FA. Every contender should be after Jordan Goodwin
Over 100 replies and 50 quotes but no mention of Jose Alvarado?!
Turnover economy demon (career 2.9 AST/TO ratio and STL%) that can play both on and off the ball
Perfect complimentary player only making $4.5 million/year
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If you want to use Jalen Brunson being a catalyst of team success as proof of concept for a prospect, it’s AJ Dybantsa.
The 8 inch height gap creates obvious statistical differences but I think the impact profile can be quite similar in the league. Don’t quite see it with Acuff.
If Jalen Brunson doing this in the Finals imagine Acuff?
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Big shoutout to @dlee4three for putting this together. I’ll be writing more and @thehwcollectlve will have my final ‘26 board notes and the other things I’m working on
Long-term it will also house my non-written work (metrics, transfer portal model, player profile pages, etc.)
Jun 4
Introducing the Collective, a writer-owned platform designed by David Lee to elevate the collective consciousness of basketball programs, front offices & fans.
thehardwoodcollective.com/
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Jason retweeted
Jun 4
Introducing the Collective, a writer-owned platform designed by David Lee to elevate the collective consciousness of basketball programs, front offices & fans.
thehardwoodcollective.com/
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To the right of the line will be the top 9 players on my final 2026 draft board
Didn’t plan it like that and there’s obviously a lot more that goes into it, but age-adjusted production continues to be the Rosetta Stone.
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Data from the goat @draftballr, original age-adjusted production visual from @UofBasketball
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Wemby is
- 99th% oRim Assist RAPM
- 100th% dRim Assist RAPM
- 98th% oTS RAPM
- 100th% dTS RAPM
His rimfluence removes all variance inside the arc. The reliability of his superpower is why he’s BITW
Can only really be countered by a stronger force of variance: launch 3s and pray
May 31
Who are the true Wemby stoppers in the league?
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There is no “hope he has a bad shooting night” or “hope his teammates struggle” — the paint is on lockdown every single night. No one in the league can rival that.
It’s scary that he’ll be even more dominant at the rim on offense with more time and chemistry with his guards.
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There are others near him/above him in any AIOs you can throw out there but I lean Wemby BITW because of his style of play and how consistent it is across any game, coach, roster, etc.
Variance reduction is THE central theme to my draft philosophy/final big board notes piece
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Last year, dunk attempts were worth 51% more than layups and 54% more than wide open 3s. High usage players that live above the rim have an extremely high, hard to replicate scoring/finishing floor
AJ Dybantsa and Caleb Wilson are self-created dunk machines, rivaled only by Zion
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Shooting Score: a simple metric with only 3 inputs (3P%, FT%, 3Pr), weighted by how correlated each are to NBA 3P%
Here are the best shooters in the 2026 NBA Draft and a graph plotting Shooting Score against self-created 3 point scoring in an attempt to capture shooting dynamism
5 May 2024
Which single college shooting statistic is MOST indicative of NBA shooting success?
Going back to 2009 for over 1300 NCAA prospects who played a single game in the NBA, 3FG% seems to be one of the LEAST predictive numbers from NCAA -> NBA 😮
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Takeaways:
- Christian Anderson best shooter in the class
- Super bullish on Mikel, bearish for Flemings — Houston system plays a role in the 3Pr
- Boozer/Dybantsa/Swain grouping is no fun for anyone
- Darryn Peterson far from outlier
- Your favorite big probably won’t shoot it
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CBA constraints make 1st contract production supremely important. Those that come into the league with relative size have intuitively been much better earlier.
Cam Boozer just measured at 27.6 BMI with > avg WS as the most productive player in college at 18. He’s always been # 1
The NBA really dropped the ball by not requiring official measurements until 2024… but just looking at the last two lotteries it’s pretty clear to me that there’s something there with BMI.
Archetypal size is important.
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The groundwork has been laid.
If the Jazz are bold enough to reject traditional roster construction principles and the urge to trade up for the local kid, Kessler/JJJ/Lauri/Boozer lineups could change team-building for a decade
3 of them on the floor at all times, start all 4
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Similar to the 3 point revolution, the multi-big, dominate the paint and glass philosophy has re-gained relevance lately but I want Utah to be 2010s GSW or early 2020s Boston and “take it too far”, testing the limits of how far positional size/rimfluence/etc. can take you.
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