It would be extremely bad, for a number of reasons.
First, it would allow this level of malicious cyber activity without needing to hide from Anthropic / OpenAI. The only constraint would be attacker skill and compute.
It would enable defenders as well, but they take far longer to adapt to change. Attackers would be using it within hours of release to massively upgrade their AI attack harness / workflows.
And then separately it would also be really bad for nuclear biological chemical as well. Since like Mythos it would probably just be a generally more competent model at everything.
The worst part about this hypothetical is that, in my opinion anyway, and that of many others, this is a matter of when rather than if.
I want to say 18 months for an estimate, but it could be 6-36 months. I just don’t see any reason to assume it won’t happen.
I think the least priced-in aspect of all this AI activity, and its effect on the economy, is what happens to the market the day the government says it’s now illegal to use open source AI.
Hugging Face gets taken down. AI is now like buying explosives or nerve gas. And the government is massively regulating the few commercial AI companies.
Every version of a new model goes through weeks or months of government testing before release. Etc.
Meanwhile…China. What are they doing?
I think we’re massively underestimating how inevitable, disruptive, and potentially imminent this is.
I mean I’ve been passively talking about this for a couple of years, but the government just took a model offline with a letter. I think this is way closer than we think.
I feel everyone is talking about cyber risk with very little input from cybersecurity.
For people in cyber, I want your take: How good or bad would it be for cyber if an open-weight no-guardrails Mythos-level model released tomorrow?