Research Associate, International Security Program @lowyinstitute | @ANU_SDSC and @warstudies alumnus. Clausewitz enthusiast and cricket tragic.
Joined July 2019
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Pinned Tweet
Very pleased to be able to share this @LowyInstitute analysis in which @SamRoggeveen and I examine what China's long-range strike capabilities could do to Australia, now and in the future. 1/
lowyinstitute.org/publicatio…
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David Vallance retweeted
China's growing cyber and long-range strike capabilities are changing Australia's strategic reality, writes @DavidGVallance in @Diplomat_APAC.
thediplomat.com/2026/06/what…
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David Vallance retweeted
The paper is not saying China is an enemy or a friend, a partner or an adversary. It makes no judgments about those questions. In fact, we're implicitly saying that such questions need to be set aside when planning the nation's defence.
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David Vallance retweeted
In response to some commentary about the @LowyInstitute paper I co-authored with @DavidGVallance, published yesterday, a few thoughts on military capabilities and the intentions to use it: lowyinstitute.org/publicatio…
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Pleased to share some thoughts on @SamRoggeveen and my recent @LowyInstitute analysis on the implications for Australia of China’s military expansion.
The PLA’s military expansion is steadily chipping away at one of Australia’s principal defensive assets: geography. buff.ly/ebiemLj
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Very pleased to be able to share this @LowyInstitute analysis in which @SamRoggeveen and I examine what China's long-range strike capabilities could do to Australia, now and in the future. 1/
lowyinstitute.org/publicatio…
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Debates about how best to act within these changed circumstances must be supported by facts and not speculation. It is not enough to say that the balance of power has changed - it is important to show how, which is what we have done here. 6/
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Thank you to my co-author Sam Roggeveen, to @MihaiSora for his notes and suggestions, to @ClareECaldwell for her excellent edits, and all many other colleagues who have made this possible with their advice and assistance. 7/
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David Vallance retweeted
China's capacity to hit the Australian mainland will grow substantially over the next decade, warn @SamRoggeveen & @DavidGVallance in a new Lowy Institute Analysis.
lowyinstitute.org/publicatio…
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Most interesting in this is the idea of the USN operating foreign designs. I'm not sure they've done that in their history. New FFMs for everyone?
navalnews.com/naval-news/202…
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Chaque fois que quelqu’un essaie de citer Thucydides au 21eme siècle ca fair mourir mon âme un peu.
May 14
Graham Allison (Harvard), qui a popularisé ce concept dans son ouvrage, ayant accès au plus haut niveau du Parti à Pékin.
PS: Thucydides a en fait une argumentation beaucoup plus nuancée et complexe que la seule transition de puissance pour expliquer la guerre.
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David Vallance retweeted
May 14
Graham Allison (Harvard), qui a popularisé ce concept dans son ouvrage, ayant accès au plus haut niveau du Parti à Pékin.
PS: Thucydides a en fait une argumentation beaucoup plus nuancée et complexe que la seule transition de puissance pour expliquer la guerre.
May 14
«Bien plus que l’amitié, la crainte mutuelle est la meilleure garantie d’alliance.»
Ce moment vertigineux où Xi invoque le génie athénien de vingt-cinq siècles, pour espérer que la Chine et les USA éviteront «le piège de Thucydide» et la fatalité de la guerre.
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David Vallance retweeted
Mar 27
And it’s pretty rich Defence criticising the public debate given that they have consistently and systematically opposed open communications across all areas, and continue to do a pretty poor job of supporting a better informed discussion.
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My latest for the Interpreter riffing on Erik Sand’s great article in @SecStudies_Jrnl on conventional ICMBs. Some thoughts on what the “new missile age” means for 🇦🇺 planning assumptions.
Conventional ICBMs could end Australia’s geographic sanctuary | David Vallance ift.tt/zmCd0KO
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A very bad choice. The government needs to be building consensus behind building up the ADF, and the best way to do that is to be clear with Australians. Opacity is not good for national security.
aspistrategist.org.au/the-bi…
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My latest for the Interpreter reflecting on Trump’s bluster over Diego Garcia
lowyinstitute.org/the-interp…
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