4chan, moving $, and masturbating to excel. economic growth is magical. Always bet on US special providence. Census fan.
Joined December 2021
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Special providence has really only started to dawn on me after seeing the U.S. economy do exceptionally well post-COVID and seemingly get through every macroeconomic shock unscathed - I’m just going to start tracking - both stock and flow - examples of that
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It's astonishing how market generalists are able to predict pandemics, Congressional actions, trade wars, and energy shocks better than subject-matter experts. Market efficiency FTW
What is even more interesting is that markets got it mostly "right", while experts wondered why prices were not shooting up to 200. There is a lesson there.
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Special Providence Poster (GDP Stan) retweeted
What is even more interesting is that markets got it mostly "right", while experts wondered why prices were not shooting up to 200. There is a lesson there.
Kinda wild how wrong most energy experts were about the Straits of Hormuz.
What were the root causes of the error? China had more reserves than anticipated, US flexed up exports faster and more ships were actually transiting the straits via the Omani route?
Genuinely curious.
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this oil shock is done and dusted - Hormuz no longer matters at all.
🔥🔥🔥Breaking News: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
🟥Iranian oil tankers are crossing the US blockade with their AIS on!
This is a VLCC carrying 2 mb.
Map form @Kpler
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Special providence has really only started to dawn on me after seeing the U.S. economy do exceptionally well post-COVID and seemingly get through every macroeconomic shock unscathed - I’m just going to start tracking - both stock and flow - examples of that
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And thus this led to a total Iran L where it simply could not spike oil prices above $100 sustainably before it eventually capitualing because the US can freely raze Iran's industrial sites at will & cause mass hyperinflation and unemployment through sentiment shocks and blockade
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The United States, not Saudi Arabia is THE SWING OIL EXPORTER. FOR NOW AND INTO PERPETUITY
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Markets are a thing of awe and wonder in their ability to overcome just about every shock
My colleagues at Bloomberg News are reporting Qatar plans to restore ~50% of its LNG production in just four weeks after SoH re-opens, and ~80% in two months.
And that's LNG, which requires a lot of work to re-start. Imagine what everyone else is going to do with oil output.
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The U.S. economy may now be completely impervious to commodity price shocks. Incredible how far providence will go
Oil bulls were lowkey wrong bro
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Just about everyone thinks* the U.S. military had a piss-poor performance in Iran so this hypothesis might need a little tweaking.
* there’s a cognizable case to be made the U.S. performance was good, but elite consensus dominates and no one in the chattering class thinks that
Jun 15
The war was never really about defeating Iran, but rather about deterring China by demonstrating that the US is both willing and able to use force when necessary.
In that sense, it was already won.
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Special Providence Poster (GDP Stan) retweeted
13h
Well let's see if this Lebanon bit sticks
13h
۱۱:۰۷/ ۲۵ خرداد
امریکا در شب تفاهم با ایران متعهد به خاتمه فوری جنگ در ایران و لبنان، و رفع فوری و کامل محاصره دریایی ایران شده است. انجام این تعهدات قبل از امضا در روز جمعه در حال راستی آزمایی است.
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Interesting hypothesis here which is that if you are at an Asian refiner, you wait until a MOU is signed before going to buy oil so your boss doesn't get mad at you. If you buy oil when there are MOU rumors, if there comes a MOU, you look like a dunce. No issue buying after tho
China’s independent #refiners step up crude inquiries after US-Iran peace deal
▪️China refiners resume crude inquiries post-deal
▪️Iranian Light discount widens to $1-$1.5/b
▪️Shandong refinery utilization drops to 51% in June
🖥️Full story: okt.to/TCNfqD
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They spent 100 days negotiating that 😂
Jun 15
*VANCE: MOU WITH IRAN IS ABOUT A PAGE AND A HALF
*VANCE: MOU WITH IRAN IS A VERY GENERAL DOCUMENT
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The body count inflation here is some exquisite sort of racism
Jun 14
I feel very sad for the protestors in Iran who lost their lives.
Nearly 100,000 innocent people slaughtered this year in Iran by the Iranian regime and IRGC.
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So far, there seems to be disagreement on
- Hormuz tolls/fees
- Hormuz transits
- Lebanon
And whether or not Israel decides to play spoiler in Lebanon
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Special Providence Poster (GDP Stan) retweeted
Jun 15
What a remarkable outcome: the world's largest ever oil supply disruption failed to create a major energy crisis.
The IEA said 2026 shock was worst than 1973, 1979 and 2022 together. And yet, the cost of oil, natural gas, electricity and coal never surpassed the previous peaks.
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As Trump can soon learn, you can just tell Israel no
Jun 14
Netanyahu told Trump the IDF will not withdraw from Lebanon and that Israel does not consider itself bound by the Lebanon clause in the U.S.-Iran agreement - Maariv
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Since Tasnim said the Strait opens on Friday - we can count it is as truly special providence that oil has remained this cheap for this long
It is indeed true the US didn't get its extraordinarily maximalist positions in this war - but what this war shows is that there is negligible downside to most US foreign policy actions
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It is indeed true the US didn't get its extraordinarily maximalist positions in this war - but what this war shows is that there is negligible downside to most US foreign policy actions
Jun 14
Almost none of these “concessions” actually cost anything to U.S. interests. Israel’s ability to bomb Lebanon is not America’s problem and lifting sanctions is positive sum. (Don’t we want cheaper oil?) The only real damage would be allowing a Hormuz tollbooth which won’t happen.
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