Joined December 2010
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7 Apr 2025
Three things you need to know about Liberation Day tariffs:
1. It’s not about the methodology.
The formula has been widely mocked, but that misses the point. The numbers aren’t meant to hold up in a PhD defense—they’re meant to shock, to create leverage. The more extreme the
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原来‘双鸭山’不在广州，而在北京。
11h
这几天北大清华等学生群里最热的话题就是鹅腿阿姨（第三次鸭骗战争）。/1
她是个售卖鹅腿的小摊贩，生意好了以后换成更便宜的鸭腿卖了十几年。新冠时期食物匮乏时代成为当地网红，大学生排队买。
近期准备拓展业务到国贸，结果社畜们只吃了一天就发现是鸭腿，于是上网曝光，人设塌方。
一个小摊贩原本可能只是想卖点东西赚点小钱，但发现大学生太容易满足（2块多钱的鸭腿卖16块还帮着她说话），就打鹅腿的品牌卖起了鸭腿。久之也不敢自我纠正了。
现在曝光了，她几年获利至少几百万。饿急了的税务局恐怕又能大赚一笔了。
一开始看到这新闻的时候，我感觉没啥大的社会意义，不太想贴。但后来转念一想，不对，我特么是个营销号啊。
搜集了一些资料放在这个thread里。
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New financial data rules just dropped from Beijing (CAC, PBOC, CSRC, etc.), and they explain exactly why the Chinese market is going dark. 👇
A breakdown of the new "Financial Information Service Data Classification & Grading Guide":
1/ Political Security is King: The highest tier ("core data") is explicitly reserved for data that impacts political security. Security > Economy.
2/ The "Important Data" Trap: Almost everything is now restricted. This doesn't just cover steel or EV tech—it includes food/beverage, retail, and hospitality across provinces. If it’s broad economic data, it’s classified.
3/ The Fallout: This explains exactly why firms like Bernstein are pulling out of Chinese consumer sector coverage. You can't analyze what you can't see/say.
The Bottom Line: Analyzing the Chinese market is about to get a lot more murky. As I said long ago: from now on, all news will be good news. 🤫
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Jun 13
《大濛》虽然故事不新，但方言的运用让旧瓶装了新酒。戏里的善恶划分很直白：觉醒与坚韧属于本省好人，外省人则集贪财、好色、残忍于一身。甚至口音越靠北，人就越坏：山东口音是阴险特务，京片子则是贪腐局长，而说粤语的虽爱占小便宜，最终却能为本省人站出来。这几乎是直到今天美丽岛对对岸刻板印象的具象化。
看完真心期待，大陆什么时候也能拍出一部属于自己的《大濛》？
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Jun 13
This is what you call alien technology—we earthlings are just not good enough for it.
Jun 13
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.
Access to all other Claude models is not affected.
We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.
Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Jun 13
As the Global Human Rights Governance High-Level Forum opens in Beijing, it is time to recall these key principles from the Declaration on the Right to Development:
Article 6.2: All human rights and fundamental freedoms are indivisible and interdependent. Equal attention must be given to civil, political, economic, social, and cultural rights.
Article 6.3: States must eliminate obstacles to development that result from a failure to observe civil and political rights.
Article 8.1: States must ensure equality of opportunity for all regarding basic resources, education, healthcare, food, housing, employment, and the fair distribution of income.
Jun 12
Beijing just rolled out the red carpet to lecture the world on global human rights, completely ignoring independent international data that places its own domestic record at the absolute bottom.
On June 11, 2026, the Chinese government hosted the Global Human Rights Governance High-Level Forum in Beijing. Addressing over 400 international delegates, Publicity Department Minister Li Shulei claimed that China adheres to a people-centered philosophy that treats state-driven development and economic survival as the primary basic human rights. This narrative actively attempts to prioritize collective economic milestones over individual civil liberties.
Independent tracking data from the Human Rights Measurement Initiative reveals the stark reality behind this official rhetoric. According to recent global metrics, China ranks near the bottom of the world across multiple safety and empowerment indicators. The nation scored a dismal 2.3 out of 10 for physical integrity, heavily penalized by widespread arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, and systemic mistreatment.
The data reveals an even bleaker reality for civil and political liberties, where China scored a crushing 1.9 out of 10 for citizen empowerment. This near-total suppression applies directly to freedom of opinion, peaceful assembly, and religious belief. The extreme deficit in personal freedoms exposes a massive rift between the government's international public relations efforts and its domestic reality.
#HumanRights #Beijing2026 #GlobalGovernance #CivilLiberties #GlobalPolitics #InternationalRelations
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Jun 12
This link between the Opium Wars and Huawei—connecting back to Howard Lutnick’s call to get China “addicted” to the US tech stack—is a such a genius way to open.
Bravo on this piece @selinaxuxinyue!
The People’s Republic of Techno-Optimists: theideasletter.org/essay/the…
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Jun 13
Many people referred to @SecRubio in the comments, but he was sanctioned when he was Senator, and China changed the Chinese translation of his name after he became Secretary of State to get around the issue as I noted earlier.
I don't think Teodoro will get the same treatment. To the contrary, I'd bet that there are probably already efforts underway to pressure the Marcos government to get rid of him.
This starts a dangerous precedent that is very likely to be repeated over and over again, especially against small states that China deems not worth dealing with.
So much for the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, which might turn out to only apply to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.
Jun 12
This is not getting the attention it deserves. As far as I know, this is the first time China has imposed sanctions on a sitting minister of another country, rather than former officials or current lawmakers as it has done previously. That suggests Beijing is willing to escalate far beyond its earlier, largely symbolic sanctions playbook. In other words, the sanctions game may now be entering an entirely different phase — one where China is prepared to target incumbent members of foreign governments directly, raising the stakes significantly in diplomatic and geopolitical confrontation.
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Jun 12
This is not getting the attention it deserves. As far as I know, this is the first time China has imposed sanctions on a sitting minister of another country, rather than former officials or current lawmakers as it has done previously. That suggests Beijing is willing to escalate far beyond its earlier, largely symbolic sanctions playbook. In other words, the sanctions game may now be entering an entirely different phase — one where China is prepared to target incumbent members of foreign governments directly, raising the stakes significantly in diplomatic and geopolitical confrontation.
Jun 12
Beijing sanctions Philippine defense chief over 'erroneous remarks' s.nikkei.com/4xq6Cvk
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Jun 11
Great to join Trade Policy Decoded, hosted by @PeterDraper5 and Dr Prudence Gordon, during my visit to the University of Adelaide last month. We had a wide-ranging discussion on Trump's trade policy, China, the EU, and many other issues shaping the global trading system.
Check out the episode at:
open.spotify.com/episode/2eX…
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Jun 10
Remember the Soveit Union?
Jun 9
The Economist: “At no time in modern history has a large country gone all in on investment in high-end technology while also navigating a slowing economy and a local government debt crisis, notes Yuen Yuen Ang of Johns Hopkins University.”
@yuenyuenang
economist.com/finance-and-ec…
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Jun 9
China has finally “solved” its endemic food safety problem — by banning all unauthorized testing conducted by individuals or entities lacking official qualifications.
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Jun 8
Lianhe Zaobao reported that the number of “flexible employees” in China is expected to reach 320 million this year, accounting for 44 per cent of the employed population.
There are many reasons for this, but as I discussed last year, major reasons include the flawed social security system, which imposes unreasonable burdens on employers, as well as the problematic judicial interpretation issued by the Supreme Court.
Since these factors have not only remained unchanged but in some respects have worsened, I expect the situation to deteriorate further.
8 Aug 2025
Why don’t these MSMEs pay social security as required?
It’s not simply greed—the system was flawed from the start:
1. Excessive contribution rates.
Rates vary by province, but employer contributions are generally 25–30%, and employee contributions 10%, for a combined 35–40%.
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Jun 8
2012年12月，习近平总书记强调，我们在社会制度与意识形态等方面都与西方国家存在完全的不同，这就决定了我们同西方国家的斗争和较量是不可调和的，因而必然是长期的、复杂的、有时甚至是十分尖锐的。西方国家不论从国际战略格局上来说，还是从意识形态上来说，都绝不会希望看到像我们这样一个社会主义大国顺利实现和平与发展的。而他们的最终目的就是要搞垮我们的领导、颠覆我国社会主义制度。就是提醒我们要深刻认识到斗争是客观存在的，并且具有长期性、复杂性、尖锐性，决不能一厢情愿、自欺欺人地一味妥协、退让，怕、躲都是没有用的，必须敢于斗争、善于斗争。
paper.people.com.cn/rmlt/htm…
Counterpoint:
Xi Jinping (2012): “We differ completely from Western countries in social system, ideology & other aspects. This determines that our struggle and contest with Western countries is irreconcilable and therefore inevitably long-term, complex, and sometimes very acute”
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Jun 7
谌旭彬的《大宋繁华》一书，从农民为何“躺平”而不愿致富，到普通百姓为何不愿生育乃至生子不举；从改革屡屡陷入越改越差的司马光困境，到以“维稳”为第一要务的不断扩军；从房地产沦为汲取百姓财富的工具，到本应由政府承担的赈灾责任被层层转嫁；再到人人争相做官、视仕途为唯一出路……还顺带diss了那些只要“初衷良善”便将政策一概奉为善政乃至歌颂昏君宋徽宗的“白左”观点，还原了“古者刻剥之法本朝皆备”的历史真相。皮里阳秋，发人深省。
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Jun 6
A great article illustrating both the promises and perils of the China model. In particular, I’d highlight five points:
Jun 5
Key takeaways: China's EV success isn't a top-down planning triumph you can replicate with "industrial policy." It's the emergent product of decentralized competition, regulatory arbitrage, and local-private alliances—messy, risky, and very hard to copy.
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4. Local officials increasingly behave like venture capitalists — partly because high GDP growth helps their promotion prospects, and partly because they desperately need new sources of revenue to sustain local economies. The latter has become especially important after the housing-market collapse and the sharp decline in land-sale revenues.
As a result, many local governments are aggressively chasing the “next big thing,” sometimes willing to throw millions at little more than a hastily assembled PowerPoint deck. This dynamic is illustrated by the looming collapse of Dreame Technology (追觅科技), which built much of its commercial empire through hundreds of linked entities whose main business model was to pit ambitious local governments against one another in competition for venture capital funding.
x.com/szslg/status/206283037…
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Jun 6
5. This also explains "What's wrong with China providing us with solar and other renewable energies?"
When local officials rise, the industries they sponsor rise with them — but when those officials fall, the industries can be restructured or consolidated.
That is essentially what happened in rare earths: an industry once fragmented across provinces and cities competing fiercely (and often corruptly) was eventually consolidated under central control.
The result is not just economic power, but geopolitical leverage — whether through higher prices or, potentially, supply restrictions against countries China has political disputes with, as we’ve seen in recent months.
x.com/henrysgao/status/20609…
May 31
"What's wrong with China providing us with solar and other renewable energies?"
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