Joined February 2017
4,016 Photos and videos
Crypto PTSD tells me $SPCX will end up as crypto hyped low-float/high-FDV token launches. Tradfi is at the 'High-FDV is a meme' stage crypto was 2 years ago. But $SPCS can't do 10x at current valuations, especially as unlocks start. Meaning all upside to IPO was taken by insiders. Retail is exit liquidity. Exactly, the set up that Cobie criticized within crypto high-FDV launches. Crypto's mission is to fix this by giving access to retail at lower valuations. But pre-IPOs aren't it. Anyone who bought the pre-ipo perps at 1x-like leverage are underwater. At least we can easily short it. Worse, PreStocks trades at 41% DISCOUNT and 'early' retail crypto degens got rekt. So, crypto x Tradfi merge means that crypto investors are exit liquidity to hyped IPOs. To fix this we still need native crypto assets to do well, those like are born onchain with broad distribution like mining, fair launches or airdrops. When we return to this key crypto value proposition and we start winning, retail will come back to crypto.
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Woke up in a permanent underclass as a EU citizen. This should cause some ‘we’re concerned’ posts from the EU bureaucrats… on Monday after the weekend. Seriously, Fable was great. Luckily managed to update all Obsidian vault and claude md files in time.
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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$SPCX Open Interest: - Binance: $312.8M - Hyperliquid: $309.0M - Variational: $15.63M - Lighter: $1.69M
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Liquidated again
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I'm so back. nothing that revenge trading cant fix
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This Vitalik's 2016 Reddit post gave core idea for Uniswap: 'Let's run on-chain decentralized exchanges the way we run prediction markets'. Hayden then built it and DEXs became core infra of DeFi where price discovery happens, LPs farm, and ppl can trade without KYC. What if the new idea by Vitalik becomes a new Uniswap? Or in this case Aave? He proposes DeFi without liquidations, built on options instead of debt. How it works in practice: Today on Aave you deposit 1 ETH at $1.5k and borrow $1k USDC. If ETH dumps too much (likely lol), a bot sells your ETH with a penalty. The whole system depends on real-time oracles being correct every second. Late liquidations incur bad debt. In Vitalik's design your 1 ETH splits into two tokens: a 'stable dollars' token and an 'ETH upside' token. - Borrowing: sell the stable token for cash, keep the upside token. If ETH dumps you just lose the upside. No liquidation bot and no penalty - Stablecoin: hold the stable token. Worst case it slowly turns back into ETH rather than depegging overnight - Leverage: buy the upside token. Max loss is what you paid and you can't get liquidated It works like buying a call option: you pay once upfront, that payment is the most you can ever lose, and a temporary price wick can't liquidate you since only the price at expiry counts. The two tokens always add up to 1 ETH, so the protocol can't end up with bad debt. And the price oracle is only checked once at expiry so slow prediction-market style oracles are enough, no real time price feeds. Since positions expire you have to roll them. But this creates new DeFi products like Pendle-ish vaults that automate the rolling for a fee. This design removes cascading liquidations from DeFi lending. Gotta keep an eye on it.
Looks like the options thing is happening already! See also: various people thinking through and building different versions of the idea in the thread: ethresear.ch/t/building-inde… Though I do strongly urge that if any of these get on mainnet quickly, we formally verify it first. I hope @vyperlang and/or github.com/lfglabs-dev/verit… folks ( @Fricoben) can help! (Also, now is a good time to be thinking about robustness-optimized oracles) firefly.social/post/x/206494…
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Vitalik was early on Uniswap as well as prediction markets. It would be no surprise this options style protocol will be big too.
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So, what's the current bull case narrative for $BTC?
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Very cool to see native BTC as collateral on Aave. Babylon's temp check PASSED to deploy two Aave V4 spokes where you borrow against BTC that never leaves Bitcoin chain. So no wrapping, no bridging, no custodians. How it works, as I understand it: - You lock BTC into a Taproot vault on Bitcoin. The script is fixed at creation: who can ever redeem BTC, and which Ethereum contract decides who currently holds that right. - Aave mints vaultBTC against it, a transfer-restricted ERC-20 for accounting. You borrow stables or any other asset on a dedicated V4 spoke. - Repay the loan, submit a ZK proof of repayment on Bitcoin, get your coins back. But how do you liquidate on slow Bitcoin mainnet? Nothing gets liquidated on Bitcoin in real time. Liquidators liquidate you on Ethereum, then instantly swap the seized vault for WBTC from the Aave hub at a small premium. Permissioned arbitrageurs later buy the escrowed vault, repay the WBTC, and redeem the actual BTC on Bitcoin through a fraud-proof window that takes days. And no, you can't watch the price dump and move your BTC to another wallet. Locking means the coins sit in a UTXO that only the vault script can release. Your Ledger txs can't move BTC same as you can't spend from a multisig alone. Claims without a valid proof get challenged and blocked during the fraud window. This is super cool and 2022/23 CT would be full with discussions about it. Also 'trustless' does some work here mainly because arbitrageurs are a permissioned entity. Babylon has ~51k BTC ($3.1B) staked natively, so demand for skipping wrappers is here. Personally, I love the idea of native BTC but wBTC risk is replaced by experimental risks in the meantime.
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Remember the ETH unstaking queue FUD? Today the exit queue is at zero. The entry queue has 3M ETH (~$5B) with a 52 day wait. The main reasons seem to be: - BitMine. The largest ETH staker now with 4M ETH staked, and they keep adding as they buy. - Grayscale moves ETH to Coinbase Prime for staking, BlackRock's new staking ETF ETHB stakes up to 95% of its holdings. Five more ETF issuers waiting for approval - Post-Pectra validator consolidations inflate the numbers a bit too Pls share the exact entities, as the data isn't clear since deposits aren’t all public entities. But the visible names are all corporates and ETFs. And all of this with ETH at $1.6k So probably retail is panic selling but institutions are preparing for the long hold.
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Earned $911 from 31 Variational sign ups after shilling the referral. But lost it all leverage trading. I really cannot trade with leverage. Farming the airdrop is the better trade: 50% of $VAR supply goes to the community and only ~3.5 months left in the points season. Use OMNIIGNAS for a 12% boost.
Gut feeling Variational will do well. Especially since $HYPE and now $LIT are both pumping. Two parts I care about: 1) Variational runs RFQ instead of an order book. So one MM quotes you from all of CEXs, DEXs and TradFi liquidity at once. For major RWAs, liquidity isn't a problem on any perp DEX. But for less liquid RWAs, RFQ is awesome. It just routes to liquidity that already exists offchain. 2) Still in private beta, and airdrop point farming runs till Q3 2026. Code is required and my code gives a 12% boost: OMNIIGNAS omni.variational.io/?ref=OMN…
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Reading replies to the comparison one thing really distinguishes $ETH from $ATOM: Ethereum has very strong community and believers and this matters the most in this memetic industry. The worst is apathy: when one criticizes an asset and no one cares. Ethereum is not here. The main counter-arguments mentioned in the comments: - ETH dominates DeFi TVL, RWAs, L2 capital. ATOM never had that scale. - ETH is gas, collateral, staking, treasury, ETF asset. ATOM was just staking governance. - BlackRock, Robinhood, Wall Street back ETH. Cosmos never escaped crypto native ppl. - L2s exist because of demand overflow, and L1 still gets value back through blobs and security. - ETH has Lindy and the largest dev mindshare. All fair points about Ethereum as a platform. Taxing L2s, increasing txs to the L1 would flip $ETH narrative quickly. Tbh I still hold some ETH and want it to succeed. The future dominated by corpo slop chains isn't what excites me.
I can't shake off the thought that $ETH is following $ATOM. Both has tech used beyond their own ecosystem: - IBC and the Cosmos SDK run under dYdX, Celestia and Injective. - The EVM runs almost every chain that isn't Solana. Lots of adoption but native coins don't accrue much value. Both scaled by pushing activity out to satellite chains: - Cosmos with app-chains like Osmosis - Ethereum with L2s Cheaper for users, but value leak to the edges while the L1 pay for security. Like L2s are slowly dying, Cosmos App-chains are pivoting or shutting down with Akash's $AKT about to propose a new migration chain. Price is going the same way but slower for ETH. ATOM is down ~86% over five years. ETH 'only' 38%. The big shift was valuing L1s mostly based on fees/revenue. I think that's flawed for L1s but $HYPE and $TRX proved that L1s can actually generate high enough fees and burn tokens via buybacks to affect the price. Cosmos community was asking FOR YEARS to fix ATOM's inflation and weak value accrual, and nothing changed until an 86% dump forced it. Even a founder was pushing for a hard fork. Apathy set in within Atom and no one even talks about it on CT anymore. Now they're redesigning ATOM to capture value instead of just paying stakers to hold. Current proposals: • inflation tied to actual fee revenue (currently a fixed 7-10%) • longer staking locks earn more • value accrual extended to SDK (corporate) usage, beyond staking yields alone $ATOM holders are so desperate they are willing to experiment. $ETH is at way too high MC and not desperate enough to make any radical changes to it. Vitalik called supporting ETH the asset 'outside the scope of the EF'. So any big change probably would come the way it did for ATOM: a crisis deep enough that doing nothing becomes more costly than acting. ETH still secures billions so too large for anyone to treat this as an emergency. ATOM had to fall most of the way to zero before it could reinvent itself. If ETH is on the same path, the level that unlocks it is a long way below here.
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I can't shake off the thought that $ETH is following $ATOM. Both has tech used beyond their own ecosystem: - IBC and the Cosmos SDK run under dYdX, Celestia and Injective. - The EVM runs almost every chain that isn't Solana. Lots of adoption but native coins don't accrue much value. Both scaled by pushing activity out to satellite chains: - Cosmos with app-chains like Osmosis - Ethereum with L2s Cheaper for users, but value leak to the edges while the L1 pay for security. Like L2s are slowly dying, Cosmos App-chains are pivoting or shutting down with Akash's $AKT about to propose a new migration chain. Price is going the same way but slower for ETH. ATOM is down ~86% over five years. ETH 'only' 38%. The big shift was valuing L1s mostly based on fees/revenue. I think that's flawed for L1s but $HYPE and $TRX proved that L1s can actually generate high enough fees and burn tokens via buybacks to affect the price. Cosmos community was asking FOR YEARS to fix ATOM's inflation and weak value accrual, and nothing changed until an 86% dump forced it. Even a founder was pushing for a hard fork. Apathy set in within Atom and no one even talks about it on CT anymore. Now they're redesigning ATOM to capture value instead of just paying stakers to hold. Current proposals: • inflation tied to actual fee revenue (currently a fixed 7-10%) • longer staking locks earn more • value accrual extended to SDK (corporate) usage, beyond staking yields alone $ATOM holders are so desperate they are willing to experiment. $ETH is at way too high MC and not desperate enough to make any radical changes to it. Vitalik called supporting ETH the asset 'outside the scope of the EF'. So any big change probably would come the way it did for ATOM: a crisis deep enough that doing nothing becomes more costly than acting. ETH still secures billions so too large for anyone to treat this as an emergency. ATOM had to fall most of the way to zero before it could reinvent itself. If ETH is on the same path, the level that unlocks it is a long way below here.
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Ignas | DeFi retweeted

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Good news: equities, gold are dumping too today. Bad news: it can last for months like this.
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Are you buying the dip here?
47% Yes
53% No
183 votes • Final results
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Ethereum to Microsoft comparison is sexy, but what if it is actually Linux.
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