Here's the problem with SPCX, and no analysis can solve it.
There is no chart.
We have three rules for every IPO:
– Never buy on day one
– Wait for the "Good Chart" to form, enough price history to read trend, support, and the real level
– Ask whether you'd buy at this price if it were already listed
So look at how these stories usually trade. A pop as retail piles in. A long grinding melt as expectations meet reality, often down 50% or more. Then dead money, one to four years of nothing while the company grows into its valuation. And only then, the real move.
Amazon fell almost 90% after listing before it became Amazon. The class of 2021 was brutal: Robinhood -92%, Coinbase -92%, Rivian -95%, Oatly -97% from their day-one highs.
A great business and a great investment are not the same thing. The price you pay decides which one you get.
SpaceX may well be the most important company of the next fifty years.
Which is exactly why there's no rush to overpay on the first afternoon.
The rocket launches today.
The Good Chart launches later.
We'll wait for it.
Full breakdown in this week's Weekly by arvy.
Link via bio.
ALT @mariusschober
This week, the largest IPO in human history begins trading.
SpaceX. Ticker SPCX. $135 a share. $75 billion raised. A $1.75 trillion valuation.
The old record, Saudi Aramco in 2019, raised $29 billion. SpaceX more than doubles it.
A view from Switzerland: $1.75 trillion is more than seven Nestlés. The most respected company in our country, founded in 1866, fits into this rocket maker about seven times. On day one.
Nestlé earns $11 billion in profit a year, like clockwork.
SpaceX lost almost $5 billion last year.
One is a cash machine the market values at one-seventh of the dream.
The other is the dream.