It's a time to reflect on what went well this year and what did not so that we can sharpen the tools we use going forward, and stay away from the things that flopped With the liquidation cascade of 10/10 it is very clear that even the smallest amount of leveraged portfolio opens you up to risk of ruin. Therefor, perps should only be used in rare occasions to fulfil a thesis when it is cheaper and easier to enter the position through perps and not spot. The position should be treated as spot so leverage is never used. There is little or no edge in leverage trading BTC and ETH unless a large narrative comes up. Examples of these narratives are Trump winning the presidential election, and front running the Tom Lee ETH DAT purchases. LTF on BTC and ETH and most majors should be ignored as they are heavily manipulated by market makers and whales in order to liquidate traders, therefor HTF and spot is king if BTC exposure is desired. HTF breakouts are far and few between on majors, last cycles of ripping through resistance does not occur anymore. ATH resistance should always be respected and if long into it should absolutely be taking off 50% of the position and strongly consider closing alts. New hyped launches played well, but only for week one. Coins that ran hard for the first week of opening should be faded after that first week. Consolidation is distribution, there is no dip, it is going to zero after the first week. New launches and stealth launches are still the best risk reward we have, if we are early. You need to be in on day 1, it needs to be a fresh coin, hard to buy, and have some figurehead like Trump or CZ attached. This is where most of the gains are made. Almost never buy the dip and always sell momentum exhaustion, on every coin. Where I made most of our money this year: Most of our money was made trading new hyped coins and exiting into the momentum. TRUMP, ASTER, DOGE, XPL, Most losses can be attributed to leverage trading BTC ETH or other majors options So what's the plan? I have always recognized holding spot BTC when it gets cheap to be THE play. Is it time to buy BTC? Anywhere between 60-100K is a good buy on BTC IMO. If we are not done with the cycle, and liquidity comes back in 2026, then BTC will start to outperform. Fundamentally BTC is entrenched in the financial system now with ETFs and being added to retirement accounts. Companies want to build on the blockchain, they want to offer crypto, banks want our money. So we don't have to worry anymore about "will crypto survive" With the correct time horizon BTC is a good buy and hold. I have always wanted to buy it in bear markets and hold through the next cycle, but I never felt like I had enough money for that to matter. I still want to be exposed to crypto so I want to own BTC, it is simple. Beyond that the biggest income generator was new launches and catching them early. You don't need a lot of funds to make this work. We bet 300K on DOGE and made 2M, 500K on TRUMP and made 5M, 500K on ASTER made 5M, 3M on XPL made 2M and this is all within the last 365 days. So the plan is and will remain spot BTC, with 500K-2M in USDT on the side waiting for the next new launch or hot thing that has the potential to run for a week (and then sell). Macro should get better in 2026, more OG whales and miner supply has been distributed throughout all of 2025, and BTC is here to stay. Don't leave, find out what worked for you, what didn't work, and improve. There is no other place that offers this type of information asymmetry and reward to risk.

As we analyzed before, gold and silver have already topped. At today’s market open, capital has already started rotating into crypto. Even with equities selling off after the open, crypto kept pushing higher. Inflows could continue and upside momentum could accelerate triggering a short squeeze without pullback.

Lot of fud on $LIT and mostly true. Doesnt really matter, think it goes up in H1 so I bought spot.

Fighting the ₿ears

STRK (the stock not the shitchain) pays 10% APR at $80 and has a 25% arb to $100 if BTC survives 🫡

💥 SAYLOR ON POTENTIAL LIQUIDATION: "As long as Bitcoin goes up 1.25% a year, we can pay the dividend forever." "If Bitcoin stops going up, we've got 80 years to figure out what we're going to do about that." I think they'll be alright 😅

following up on this: i also feel like if cz didn't exist (10/10 didn't happen), we'd still be in a dump (given the pullback on equities), but we'd be either fighting to hold onto 100k, or maybe modestly wicking below weekly support at 98.5k. imagine that. assuming stocks recover and risk-on continues and we end up way higher later, this entire episode in hindsight is like "remember when a bunch of toxic flows/forced selling with awful execution dumped us like 20k lower than we should've gone?" and gets looked at as a generational mid-cycle opportunity

It will take over 50% pump for BTC to ATH Does that happen in the next 3-4 years? I am betting on spot BTC to outperform "long term"

Believe

GM

#BITCOIN The last four times the PMI crossed this level, a BTC bull run followed. It looks like it’s about to cross this level again.

Have the governments stopped debasing their currencies? Then it hasn't topped

Im only enough to not care if BTC takes 1-2 years from here to go to 150-200K

4 year cycler selling "because I'm supposed to right now" is a self fulfilling prophecy/50 week jitters will result in a "mini bear." Maybe through rest of the year tax harvest. They'll be smug for a while thinking they called the top perfectly until an ocean of liquidity hits.

Find it bullish that we're dumping on a Sunday before CME, added long:

So who blew up on 10/10?

Gm

Mid cycle low is being put in as we speak Upside target 150-200K from here for $BTC Catalyst is liquidity expansion in 2026 1-2 years to cycle top