Chief US Investment Strategist at BCA Research | Student of Economics, Financial Markets and Immaculate Grid
Joined December 2023
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Fresh off the Bank Credit Analyst’s Chart of the Week win, I humbly submit today’s U.S. Investment Strategy for Title of the Week.
It’s for everyone who’s wondered why equities have been so resilient.
May 9
📈 BCA’s #ChartoftheWeek!
The K-shaped economy now extends to business investment. @DougPeta notes:
💻 Demand for information processing equipment is growing even faster than in 1999...
📉 ...yet demand for everything else has only kept pace with inflation for 12 years
📊 The K-shaped same divide now shows up in investment, profits, and equity performance
The durability of the tech capex boom will determine when investors should rotate away from the tech-dominated US, and Korea and Taiwan in EM.
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I’m a mere mortal and know I can’t beat @TylerKepner in @immaculategrid so my goal is simply to top him in a square or two every now and then. Not sure if today might have fit the bill but I dug deep.
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We interrupt our regularly scheduled macro and markets programming for the following PSA:
If you’re working on your NFL @immaculategrid in public and @FitzMagic_14 offers to play for money, run away.
Ditto @_mcameron44 in baseball.
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The article talks about Fibonacci retracement but today was the seventh straight session that the S&P closed below its 200-day moving average.
Mar 26
⚠️ Energy chokepoint keeps pressure on risk
Our US Investment Strategist @DougPeta told @business:
🛢️ Until Hormuz flows normalize, inflation pressure is likely to stay elevated
📉 Higher energy costs could keep weighing on global growth
⚠️ From a technical perspective, the worst may not be over yet
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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You mean like saying investment banks do “God’s work?”
Feb 25
Need some Old-Right commentators to jump in here and explain to Jamie Dimon that whatever the financial sector is doing is reliably rational, productive, value-creating, economy-boosting, and supportive of human flourishing.
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Agreed, especially with the savings rate already near its lows.
But January’s 0.8% month-over-month rise in aggregate weekly payrolls (workers * avg hourly earnings * avg weekly hours) means that the gap will narrow next month and the OBBBA tax refunds are coming.
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It made my week to learn @greg_ip has been following @bcaresearch for the 30 years I’ve been reading him.
Btw, our math checks out: after taxes, a 10% gain in equities is tantamount to an 18% boost in income. Wealth’s influence on activity is rising.
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Full disclosure: This post was written by a Commanders fan from the DMV.
Just sayin’
Jan 21
#Salesforce is the Dallas Cowboys of Tech — legendary heyday, massive fanbase, and now…perpetual disappointment.
Just checking on them boyz 🤠
-10% since the EPS beat and higher FY26 revenue guidance (Dec)
-16% YTD
-30% from the 2021 SaaS peak
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Thanks to @BNNBloomberg for giving @bcaresearch a chance to weigh in on D.C.’s latest private sector intervention.
You really can’t take @ChicagoBooth out of the strategist, even if he graduated an eternity ago.
bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/…
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