On Bonnie Crombieâs Leadership Review:
Bonnie Crombie is my best friendâs mum. I worked on her mayoral campaigns. Weâre close. And I admire Nate Erskine-Smithâfrankly, Iâd have supported him had Bonnie not run.
But like the majority of the party, I ultimately backed Bonnie because she offered a more complete political package: stronger fundraising, retail skills, the ability to build a diverse team and, most importantly, a willingness to grow. Sheâd often admit she wasnât the smartest person in the roomâbut she could lead it.
Nate, by contrast, had flashes of brilliance. Heâs eloquent, thoughtful and principled. But he struggled to overcome some of his blind spots or adapt strategically as the campaign unfolded.
Both have had a tough year. Bonnie led the party into an election called at a moment of maximum advantage for Premier Ford: when the country felt under threat and Ford was acting, in effect, like a national father figure. Any Ontario Liberal leader, barring a miracle, would have lost that race. (For a similar dynamic, see Polievre, Pierre, April 2025.)
Still, under Bonnie, the party gained ground: in popular vote, in seats, andâcriticallyâregained official party status. Not quite as many seats as I expected, certainly less than Iâd hoped for, but gains nonetheless.
Nate, meanwhile, looked ready to step away from federal politics to spend more time with his young familyâuntil offered a cabinet post, only to be demoted by the new Prime Minister. That clearly stung. His recent public comments have been noticeably bitter. Bonnie, for her part, seems to be moving through subtler stages of political grief.
Now, Nate has thrown down the gauntlet, turning the partyâs AGM vote on whether to trigger a leadership race into a de facto rematch. But if the question is: âwho would have done better in Februaryâs election?â, we have to be honest. Bonnie out-fundraised Nate considerably during the leadership. She built relationships with the press gallery. When she won, she hired top talent from all her leadership rivals. She moved decisively on housing and healthcare, in some cases going further than Nate on an abundance agenda.
Could Nate have done better than her this winter? Maybe. But could he have done materially better, given the circumstances? I doubt it. Itâs doubtful heâd have had the financial resources. Truthfully, he might even have done worse.Â
The party deserves a real debate about strategy, tone and direction. But itâs also worth noting that the caucus members who won campaigns right now arenât backing Nateâs push to oust Bonnie. Thereâs a reason for that. Politics is a team sport.
You can dismiss this as âthatâs just, like, your opinion, manââand it is. But itâs an opinion informed by an honest view of the challenges ahead (Iâm almost always the most pessimistic voice she hears from). Bonnieâs not perfect, but sheâs earned the chance to growâand I hope the party lets her.
The question isnât, ultimately, who wouldâve done better in the last race; itâs whoâs willing to grow for the next one.Â
#onpoli