From our energy expert
@FryerJaxson:
Saudi Supply Disruptions Keep the Physical Market Tight: Attacks on Saudi
#upstream, refining, and export infrastructure have removed meaningful capacity from the system. The implication is that even if headline risk cools, the physical market can stay tight for longer than futures imply because normalization is logistical and quality-driven, not instantaneous. East Daley’s view has been that the market clears through sequence and crude quality, not just flat-price headlines.
U.S. Producers Are Not Chasing the Price Spike: Even with political pressure to drill more, U.S. E&Ps are still behaving conservatively because the forward strip, not the prompt spike, drives capital allocation. The implication is that near-term export demand is more likely to be met by inventory draws than fresh production growth, which keeps the supply response muted and supports tighter balances for longer.
KMI Acquires Monument Pipeline: Kinder Morgan is buying the 225-mile Monument system for $505MM, adding a Katy-to-Houston Ship Channel asset with about 9 years of average contract life and strong utility/industrial exposure. The implication is that KMI is leaning harder into contracted, Houston-area demand growth tied to utilities, industry, LNG, and storage optionality rather than taking pure commodity risk.
Gas
#Infrastructure Valuations Are Still Rich: Spire’s $650MM storage sale and Apollo’s purchase of 40% of Pembina Gas Infrastructure both reinforce the same message: the market is still paying up for contracted gas infrastructure with reliability value. The implication is that storage, pipes, and integrated gas networks remain scarce strategic assets in a market increasingly driven by optionality and locational demand.
FERC and the White House Are Actively Pushing Infrastructure Forward:
#FERC plans to act on the large-load interconnection docket by June 2026, while the White House is also moving on pipeline and energy-security actions. The implication is that power demand growth, AI load, and hydrocarbon infrastructure are becoming more directly policy-linked, which should help some projects advance but also makes permitting and regulation a bigger part of the investment case.
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