Director @EurasiaGroup. EU foreign policy matters, Turkey, etc. Recovering journalist, previously with @WSJ & @business. Views my own, repost ≠ endorsements.
Le Pen always at her highest between elections. When she has to come out of hiding & say how she will run the country, she always deflates. More significant finding here may be the resilient popularity of Edouard Philippe @EPhilippe_LH 1/
Mind-boggling. Le Pen is now the 2nd most popular politician in France. Her right-hand man is the 3rd most popular
Her party is the now most trusted on nearly all issues including cost of living, health, education, pensions...
Completely unimaginable only a few years ago
“The USA is a permanent Pacific power much to China’s fierce opposition,” @RahmEmanuel says. “The trilateral partnership is a significant strategic shift in favour of our collective vision.”
After Quad & AUKUS, JUSK?
ft.com/content/936bc605-7b48…
Sweden's national interests are being threatened , says Prime Minister Kristersson, by those people and entities determined to burn holy books.
The government wants to restrict the right to do this in the interest of national security without limiting freedom of speech.
🇹🇷🪙💸🛏️
High inflation plummeting lira low deposit & policy rates quashing of investments in alternative assets (🚗🏘️ etc.) = Money under the mattress
ft.com/content/f8f25e7c-152f…
Finally the governor herself!
Turkey's new central bank governor Erkan @hafizegayeerkan -- the 1st woman to lead the institution in its 93-year-long history --made her public debut. 1st @berilakman's story ⤵️ and then some observations:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @economics
Bugünkü TCMB raporunun iki kazananı var:
1) Piyasa ekonomistleri: Tekrar konuşmaya değer bir raporları oldu
2) TCMB çalışanları: Düzgün tahmin ve analiz yapmanın hazzını kısmen de olsa tekrar yaşadılar.
Sabit gelirliler ise uzun süreli yüksek enflasyon haberiyle yine kaybetti.
EU spokeswoman Nabila Massrali tells me that Josep Borrell "looks forward to continuing very good cooperation with Wang Yi, as with past interactions”.
“He is a well-known counterpart of Borrell. They last met in Jakarta, in the margins of the ASEAN Regional Forum, on 14 July."
🇪🇺 keeping 🇹🇷 happy (🇸🇪 membership to @nato still pending ratification in Ankara) & finally developing some sensible sensitivity towards 🕌🕋 (esp. considering the EU's 25m Muslim population that's forecast to be more than 10% of the bloc's population) europa.eu/!yvTW3b
Admitting Ukraine into the EU will be Europe's biggest, most important geopolitical contribution to the war
My latest piece for @POLITICOEurope looks at the emerging debate in Bxl & EU capitals over “how” best to do it
politico.eu/article/admit-uk…
"As the war grinds on into its second year, the stakes haven’t lowered an inch... we must remain steadfast in our belief in the Ukrainian people & undeterred in our work to get them the support they need." @SenMarkKelly & @SenDuckworth on 🇺🇸 support for 🇺🇦
nytimes.com/2023/07/24/opini…
The road to EU strategic autonomy will be long, winding & full of wrong-turns. The “Fiona Scott Morton affair” is the perfect example. For all its achievements & ambitions, the EU remains uncertain & divided on what it means to become an econ superpower to rival the US & China 1/
🇪🇺 proposing a €20bn fund to finance military aid to 🇺🇦.
That'd effectively mean EU can remove Ukraine from the aptly named, off-budget European Peace Facility with a dedicated fund. It'd also be part of long-term guarantees agreed by leaders in June.
politico.eu/article/eu-20-bi…
MEP @bueti says a BIA won't happen "this year and probably not next year".
"EU-Taiwan relations should not be hostage to EU-PRC relations, nor should we address these relations to poke China in the eye".
But he says "we can't ignore the political context".
This point has been made before.
In March, Benedikt Wiedenhofer, an advisor at Business Europe, says the group does not support "negotiating a headline grabbing agreement" with Taiwan
However, European Parliament remains a strong proponent of BIA
x.com/fbermingham/status/163…
At EU Parliament hearing on Taiwan, BusinessEurope, which says it reps 20 million EU firms, comes out again against an EU-Taiwan bilateral investment deal.
Senior adviser Elena Suarez: We need to ask what we want to do, is it deepen economic ties or make a political statement?