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Russia lost Armenia’s election but kept its leverage: Moscow can no longer command Yerevan, yet it can still raise the price of every westward step. Armenia’s real test is not choosing the West, but surviving the cost. By @dubowy_alex
eagleintelreports.com/armeni…
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Pyongyang’s shift is not just another provocation. By treating South Korea as foreign, it is erasing the “one Korea” premise behind decades of nuclear diplomacy. What emerges is starker: two states, lasting hostility, and nuclear deterrence. By Seong Hyeon Choi.
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The 2026 World Cup will test more than football. It will test America’s image as a host nation: inviting the world into its stadiums while its security state decides who is allowed in—and who remains outside the frame. By James O'Shea @jameseoshea
eagleintelreports.com/the-am…
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Britain’s gilt yield is not a vote on Starmer. It measures the gap between what the state has promised and what its economy can produce. Debt, demography and weak productivity are now writing Britain’s politics. By Thomas Falk @topfalk
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Europe’s next crisis may expose a hard truth: Article 42(7) promises EU mutual defense, but lacks the command, planning and crisis tools needed when NATO cohesion becomes part of the problem. Solidarity without readiness is a risk. By Nicoletta Kouroushi @nicolekouroushi
eagleintelreports.com/articl…
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Canada’s SAFE deal is more than a procurement shift. It reflects a quiet doctrine for middle powers: remain inside the alliance, while building enough alternatives to avoid strategic dependence on any single capital. By James O'Shae @jameseoshea
eagleintelreports.com/canada…
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Sources: Lebanon’s president and army command agreed to reject a U.S.-backed plan to form a special army brigade under American supervision to disarm Hezbollah, fearing direct internal clashes.
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Britain is not abandoning Washington. It is adapting to a less reliable America. London’s gamble is to preserve the benefits of the special relationship while building European, trade and defense options that reduce dependence. By Thomas Falk @topfalk
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East Africa is no longer just a transit space. As Red Sea instability reshapes trade, its ports and corridors are becoming gateways linking Africa, the Gulf and Asia. The test: turning logistics into industrial power despite debt and governance risks.
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The Trump–Xi summit offered ceremony without strategic weight. It left Taiwan, trade, and security disputes unresolved, while reinforcing Beijing’s confidence that China is rising and America is losing ground. By Stephen Blank
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Egypt has moved air-defense systems into Saudi Arabia to protect energy infrastructure and maritime export routes along the Red Sea, spanning from Yanbu to the Egyptian coastline near Qena.
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There will be no Saigon moment in Africa. America is retreating quietly, cutting troops, aid, and diplomatic reach, while Russia, China, and jihadist networks move to fill the vacuum Washington is leaving behind. By James O'Shea @jameseoshea
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Kuwait is reinforcing its northern front amid rising tensions, according to sources, with Kuwaiti and British forces deployed near Iraq, while National Guard checkpoints secure Jaber Bridge over fears the Iran ceasefire could collapse.
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Sources say Saudi and Iranian representatives held undisclosed talks in Barcelona to reduce Gulf tensions, secure energy flows through Hormuz, and prevent attacks on energy facilities amid fears of U.S.–Iran escalation.
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America’s deterrence problem isn’t firepower, it’s refill speed. Modern wars burn through smart munitions in weeks, while industry needs years to replace them. The real arsenal is no longer just stockpiles, but production endurance. By Jahara Matisek @JaharaMatisek
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Exclusive: Secret Saudi-Iranian talks in Barcelona, away from US pressure, to secure Saudi oil through Hormuz and halt attacks on energy facilities, in exchange for easing specific Iranian movements amid fears of a US-Iran escalation in the Gulf.
eagleintelreports.com/secret…
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Exclusive: Washington is considering sanctions on Hadi al-Amiri to pressure Ali al-Zaidi’s government, as Iraq’s PM prepares his first Tehran visit to discuss placing factional weapons under state control amid Coordination Framework divisions.
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When civilian nuclear sites become coercive tools, the danger goes beyond radiation: normalizing nuclear risk as leverage. The next catastrophe may begin not with a meltdown, but with a mindset that treats reactors as bargaining chips. Richard Weitz @RichardWeitzDC
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Mali’s war is no longer a fight for territory. It is a fight over who gets to be the state: the junta in Bamako, jihadist commanders in the countryside, Azawad rebels in the north, or Russia’s new security order.
By Mongi Hamdi, former UN Special Representative and Head of MINUSMA in Mali.
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For the Kremlin, the Iran war is not about Tehran alone. It is a chance to expose the West’s limits, drain its focus, and weaken Ukraine by stretching the coalition that keeps it standing. By Alexander Dubowy @dubowy_alex
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