🧵 Storytime: This is how our #ECBToneMeter tracked the ECB’s gradual shift toward what now looks like a likely June rate hike. When the Middle East war began, our tool (which measures the overall dovishness or hawkishness of recent ECB communication) was effectively neutral. Before the conflict, ECB policymakers were in what many described as a “good place”: ▫️ Inflation near 2% ▫️ Inflation projections near 2% ▫️ Interest rates at 2% Then the shock hit. On February 28, in the outbreak of the war, our indices stood at: ▫️ Governing Council: -0.13 (neutral) ▫️ Executive Board: 0.00 (neutral)

Transcript: Interview with Swedish DMO Head of Funding Johan Bergström on 5 June 2026 #ECB #centralbanks #monetarypolicy econostream-media.com/news/2…

Exclusive: Sweden DMO Head Johan Bergström: New 2038 Bond to Be Launched in H1 2027 #ECB #centralbanks #monetarypolicy econostream-media.com/news/2…

💡 We think Nadia Calviño's comments today on her prospects for the ECB presidency reinforce the case for keeping her among the potential contenders. Read our latest #Insight for the reasoning behind that view. econostream-media.com/news/2…

🇪🇸 Spain’s José Luis Escrivá doesn’t sound particularly reassured about what the US-Iran deal could mean for the energy crisis: 📌 “Even if the conflict is brought under control, and even if prices reflect that relatively quickly, it is not certain that markets will be able to fully capture the disruptions that have taken place on the supply side, or the scale of the challenge and the time it will take to restore production.”

‼️ Nadia Calviño, whose name is often mentioned in discussions about the next ECB presidency, was asked about the role at an event today. As one would expect from someone currently leading another major European institution, she declined to engage with the speculation and instead said that she is "absolutely proud, committed, happy" to head the EIB. econostream-media.com/news/2…

#ECBInsight | Policymakers Adjust to a Growth Slowdown Too Mild to Cure Inflation econostream-media.com/news/2…

🏖️❌ No July hike? So far, ECB communication since yesterday's hike does not suggest policymakers see a July move as the default next step. While there is clearly a willingness to follow up on yesterday's hike with another, comments are at least equally consistent with action post-July. As a result, our #ECBToneMeter has turned slightly less hawkish. The speakers so far — Nagel 🇩🇪, Moulin 🇫🇷, Rehn 🇫🇮, Kocher 🇦🇹, Makhlouf 🇮🇪, Dolenc 🇸🇮 or Kaasik 🇪🇪 — have limited themselves to expressions of a generalized readiness to act if needed amid ongoing concern about the shock's undeniable persistence. Check out our #ECBToneMeter here 🔗 econostream-media.com/toneme…

ECB Insight: Lagarde Resists Roadmap, But Keeps Another Hike in Play #ECB #centralbanks #monetarypolicy econostream-media.com/news/2…

‼️ Lagarde says the ECB has introduced a third alternative scenario, dubbed the "mildest scenario."

‼️ Lagarde says neither a hold nor a 50bp rate hike was discussed at today’s meeting. "The decision that we took today to raise by 25bp our three interest rates was a unanimous decision without reservations, we did not discuss or debate any other alternative proposal."

‼️ Lagarde notes that short-term inflation expectations remain "well above" levels prior to the Middle East war, but reiterates that "most measures of longer term inflation expectations stand at around 2%, supporting the stabilization of inflation around target in the medium term."

🔴 We are now in the ECB press conference room, awaiting Christine Lagarde’s press conference. She is due to speak at 14:45 CET.