#ECBInsight | Policymakers Adjust to a Growth Slowdown Too Mild to Cure Inflation econostream-media.com/news/2…

💡 Why Pierre Wunsch would be better suited to opposition than to succeed Christine Lagarde One news outlet recently floated his name as a possible candidate for the ECB presidency, and his frequent media presence lately smacks of positioning. But we believe his chances remain limited for many reasons: 🔹He does not solve an obvious European appointments puzzle and does nothing for gender balance 🔹Belgium, not a natural ECB presidency country, already had recent access to top European posts 🔹His Francophone profile complicates the post-Lagarde balance 🔹Paris, which he has criticized, is likely to distrust his fiscal/spread instincts 🔹Klaas Knot 🇳🇱 is the cleaner German fallback if Germany can’t have the presidency 🔹He is no consensus-builder in the Lagarde mold; more associated with dissent and model criticism 🔹His communication style is sharp rather than reassuring We explain this in detail in our latest #ECBInsight econostream-media.com/news/2…

👀 #ECBInsight | The ECB will need to hike in June, according to @Isabel_Schnabel. Her interview today strongly corresponds to our view that a June hike is becoming increasingly hard to avoid. This is why: 1⃣ Key change vs April: Back then, the ECB could still justify waiting to see whether the shock would persist. Now, Schnabel says persistence itself is changing the picture and that “looking through” the shock is “no longer an option.” 2⃣ The June case is no longer just about oil prices. It’s about: 🔹persistence 🔹pass-through 🔹inflation expectations 🔹and ECB credibility 3⃣ No waiting for second-round effects to show up in wage data. "If we wait for second-round effects to appear in hard data on wages, we will certainly be too late," she says. 4⃣ Markets cannot tighten financial conditions for the ECB indefinitely. Schnabel says that if markets price hikes because the ECB signals concern, at some point the ECB has to validate that pricing or it will risk damaging its reaction function. 5⃣ A June hike would not automatically mean the start of a full hiking cycle. She stays very close to the ECB’s meeting-by-meeting language and avoids pre-committing beyond June. 6⃣ The growth concerns are still there. Schnabel acknowledges weaker confidence and slowing activity, but she does not phrase it as an argument to wait. Conclusion: The ECB still dislikes tightening into weak growth, but the arguments for waiting have become increasingly hard to sustain. Read more in our #ECBInsight 🔗 econostream-media.com/news/2…

👀 #ECBInsight | How did ECB April hike talk give way to June becoming the more plausible decision point? We review policymakers’ comments since the last meeting to spot the turning points in tone. Read our latest #Insight. econostream-media.com/news/2…

👀 #ECBInsight | Why June Could Yet Become the New April econostream-media.com/news/2…

👀 #ECBInsight | Lagarde’s No Tightening Bias: Dovish or Dumbish? econostream-media.com/news/2…

👀 #ECBInsight | Dolenc Adds to Evidence of Little Appetite for Hiking econostream-media.com/news/2…

#ECBInsight | Villeroy Can Finally Afford to Be Honest About Rate Hikes econostream-media.com/news/2…

👀 #ECBInsight | Little Rush to Go to Bat for an April Hike econostream-media.com/news/2…

#ECBInsight | Schnabel Gives the ECB Room to Wait econostream-media.com/news/2…

#ECBInsight | With the Vice Presidency Secured, Vujčić Shows His Hawkish Hand econostream-media.com/news/2…

#ECBInsight | De Guindos Makes April a More Credible Decision Point econostream-media.com/news/2…

#ECBInsight | With Yet Another Nod to Cuts, Villeroy Highlights the Risk of Taking Him Seriously econostream-media.com/news/2…

👀 #ECBInsight | Why “Vigilant” Is No Code Word Today econostream-media.com/news/2…

👀 #ECBInsight | Lagarde Plans to Show Attenborough-Narrated Ocean Video Next Week econostream-media.com/news/2…