“Quantum computing is an imaginary problem for Bitcoin.” @saylor says critics must now imagine: • a computer that doesn’t exist • a cryptographic breakthrough • nobody upgrading Bitcoin • everything suddenly failing “The only reason it gets traction is that there are no real problems.”

In the last two #Bitcoin cycles people told me how dumb I was to buy in at $3,000 because it was still going to drop by 50%. Then in 2021 to 2022 they told me that $15,000 was nowhere near the bottom. "@saylor has to get liquidated first" and that we were still going to drop by 50 %. Now people are saying that we're going to drop at least until the $40,000 or $20,000 range. Some things never change. If you want a really win, just buy Bitcoin all the time and hodl.

JUST IN: Bitcoin mining difficulty to drop 9.55%, the second-largest downward adjustment of 2026

A dot a week, keeps your critics weak.

Over the last 11 years, #Bitcoin hasn't given you a lot of opportunity down here.

As the timeline is flooded with calls for $50K and lower, it is important to maintain a healthy perspective. This chart compares buying the bottom in 2026 to 2022. If the bottom is in, then buying bitcoin today at $63,500 is similar to buying below $17K in 2022. A phenomenal entry. But SuperBro, what if bitcoin CRASHES to $48K? Then current prices are comparable to buying $20K in 2022. Zoom out, stack sats, and chill my bros. This is where we build our fortunes.

.@SpaceX is now the 6th most valuable company in the world by market cap, and roughly 6% of its corporate treasury is held in bitcoin. Not ETH. Not some other shitcoin. Bitcoin. That's it. That's the tweet.

JUST IN: Elon Musk's SpaceX officially becomes 8th largest public Bitcoin holder with 18,712 BTC 🚀

$BTC to $1M Is Not a Moonshot. It Is the Next 10x. Bitcoin already moved: $0.10 → $100,000 That is a 1,000,000x move in ~14 years. Six separate 10x moves. $0.10 → $1 Oct 2010 → Feb 2011 Step time: ~4 months Age from genesis: ~2.1 years $1 → $10 Feb 2011 → Jun 2011 Step time: ~4 months Age from genesis: ~2.4 years $10 → $100 Jun 2011 → Apr 2013 Step time: ~22 months Age from genesis: ~4.3 years $100 → $1,000 Apr 2013 → Nov 2013 Step time: ~7 months Age from genesis: ~4.9 years $1,000 → $10,000 Nov 2013 → Nov 2017 Step time: ~4 years Age from genesis: ~8.9 years $10,000 → $100,000 Nov 2017 → Dec 2024 Step time: ~7 years Age from genesis: ~15.9 years Every move delivered the same return: 10x. But every move felt harder to believe. $10 → $100 felt possible. $10,000 → $100,000 felt absurd. Same math. Different emotion. The next step is: $100,000 → $1,000,000 On a linear chart, that looks insane. On a log chart, it is simply the next order of magnitude. That is what scale invariance means. $10 → $100 and $100,000 → $1,000,000 are the same distance on a log chart. The dollar amounts change. The scaling relationship does not. Bitcoin does not care how big the number feels to your brain. It moves by orders of magnitude. Now look at the timing. The last major 10x took about 7 years: $10K in Nov 2017 → $100K in Dec 2024 If the next 10x takes roughly the same or slightly longer, the next milestone lands around: $1M BTC in 2032–2035 The power-law points closer to 2032–2033. Historically consistent with Bitcoin’s long-term monetization path. At $1M per BTC, Bitcoin would be roughly a $20T asset. That is approximately gold-scale territory. The log chart shows the scaling. $1M Bitcoin is reasonable on the math of scaling.

In the depths of the 2022 crypto winter, our average cost basis was $30K while $BTC traded nearly 50% below it at $16K. What did we do? We bought more.

Back to basics. Fiat money is fake and immoral. Humanity is being cattle herded into a debt slavery system enhanced by AI-enabled dragnet surveillance. Bitcoin fixes this. If you don't get it, I don't have time to explain it to you. Figure it out.

Trump likely had to cancel strikes this evening due to the SpaceX IPO tomorrow, probably got a call from big banker.

Bitcoin is sitting right on the 200-week moving average, around $61,300. I want to be precise about why that matters, because most people quote the wrong line. The 200-week simple moving average, not the exponential one, has marked the cycle bottom in 2015, in 2018 and in 2022. Every major bear in bitcoin's history has bottomed at or just below this line and then turned. It is the closest thing the asset has to a structural floor, because it represents roughly four years of average price, which is one full cycle. We are testing it right now, and bitcoin has already lost the 50-week moving average on weekly closes, which is the line that historically separates a bull market from a bear market. So the structure is bearish, and we are in the part of the cycle where you find out who actually had a plan. The thing I keep repeating, because it is the thing people get wrong, is that this crash is macro, not crypto. There is no FTX here, no Luna, no single blowup to point at. What happened is the Fed pivoted to hiking, the hottest CPI in three years landed, December hike odds sit near 70%, and nobody serious, not Nomura, not Morgan Stanley, not JPMorgan, is pricing cuts for 2026. A hiking cycle does not change bitcoin's bear structure. The 200-week bottom and the roughly twelve-month bear clock still apply. What the regime changes is the depth. Hawkish macro means the drawdown can go deeper than a clean cycle would suggest before it finds the floor. So here are the two lanes I'm watching. The bull lane: bitcoin holds $61K, reclaims $69K which was prior-cycle resistance, then $76K as the measured move, then $87K which is the 200-day average. The bear lane: it loses $61K on a weekly close, and the next real floor is $53,600, which is the realized price, the on-chain average cost basis for the entire network. Below that, mid-$40s, which would be roughly 30% under the 200-week line, the same kind of overshoot 2022 produced. I'm not trying to call the exact bottom, because precision is a trap. But there is a convergence I trust as a signal, and it has marked the last four bottoms: price at the realized cost basis around $53,600, the MVRV-Z score collapsing toward zero, and bitcoin trading about 16% below the 200-week line. When those three line up, that is the zone, historically. On-chain, supply in loss just passed supply in profit for the first time this cycle, with around 8 million coins underwater. That is pain, and pain is what the setup is made of. None of those triggers are sentiment. They're levels. That's the whole point. In a bear market the edge isn't having a smarter opinion about where price goes. It's deciding your levels in advance and being willing to do nothing until price comes to them.

Apparently the bear case for bitcoin is that someone bought too much of it.

"Everyone always assumes the alligator jaws close by Bitcoin going down. No. They close because Bitcoin's forgotten, then suddenly it's the only thing in the room that's moving." @_Checkmatey_ says when the AI bubble peaks, Bitcoin will be the most underowned asset.

This is the 12-year #Bitcoin chart that has people rage-quitting and crying like whiny little bitches. 😂

Bitcoin, Perfect Scarcity, Imperfect Critics Bitcoin’s fiercest critics keep missing the target. The new bear case is not about bugs in the code, but about one public company accumulating a perfectly scarce asset in a world of perfectly elastic money. Strategy, the artist formerly known as MicroStrategy, has turned its balance sheet into a bitcoin vault. This, we are told, proves structural fragility: a single, promotional buyer supposedly props up the price, concentrates supply, and creates a future liquidation overhang. If that balance sheet ever de‑risks, the story goes, bitcoin and Strategy’s equity go over the cliff together. Never mind that the company controls less than 5% of outstanding bitcoin, a meaningful hoard, but hardly a corner. Many of the loudest market voices are happy to repeat the script, treating bitcoin as little more than a speculative circus act. Yet in gold, the same behaviour is treated as statesmanlike. Central banks quietly warehouse bullion with opaque disclosures and openly political motives. How soon we forget the Brown Bottom. When they blunder, as with Gordon Brown’s infamous decision to dump UK gold near the secular low, it is remembered as bad timing, not as evidence that gold is unfit to be money. Bullion trusts exist for the sole purpose of locking metal in a vault. Streaming companies such as Wheaton Precious Metals sign long‑dated claims on future production, giving shareholders geared exposure to the same finite resource. No one concludes that this pattern of hoarding renders gold “uninvestable.” It is simply how a reserve asset lives. The double standard is not accidental. Implicit in the consensus is that central‑bank hoarding is respectable, while bitcoin hoarding is suspect. Markets yawn when official institutions add a few more tonnes of gold. They scoff when the Sec of the Treasury Scott Bessent in recent testimony, suggest that the United States methodically moving toward a strategic bitcoin reserve. Gold reserves are “prudence.” A bitcoin reserve is “crankery.” Hoarding is fine, apparently, so long as it never threatens to introduce perfect scarcity into a fiat system that depends on its opposite. Bitcoin perfect scarcity in a fiat world run wild is now ignored, even by high profile pundits. Seen clearly, Strategy’s accumulation is not a fatal bug in bitcoin, but a tell about its critics. When gold is cornered by states and vehicles, it is applauded. When less than 5% of bitcoin is accumulated by a listed American company, it is denounced. That asymmetry says less about bitcoin’s weakness than about the political system’s fear of anything it cannot print. And yes the bias of many who should know better. $MSTR #Bitcoin @theallinpod

We are experiencing the first bear market in network hashrate in Bitcoin's history. This is the longest stretch without a new network hashrate ATH in the ASIC era. ~258 days since the last ATH and still ~25% below the peak. I wrote about this last month: x.com/alphazeta/status/20539…

The AI Bubble has lost wallstreetbets