Real-time UK local & by-election tracking 🗳️ | Weekly roundups, charts & analysis on YouTube (@ElectionWatchUK - 15.8K subs) | Data-driven coverage
Joined November 2024
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Jun 3
🚨Reform BACK UP to 30% in the Poll of Polls!
The post local election re-rating of Reform's vote share has continued across pollsters over the last fortnight, as has the Greens' slide as they're now back level with the Lib Dems.
What do you make of these numbers?
Also, see the replies for the vote share change and a note on this week's numbers...
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Election Watch retweeted
Jun 14
People MUST go and Vote !
I watch the weekly reports by the brilliant @Elect_WatchUK
& woefully low turnouts happen all the time 😢
52% didn't bother to vote in Gordon & Denton
59.5% of Londoners didn't vote in the last Mayoral Election
... and look who got voted in 🤦
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Jun 12
Morning all!
Two results in overnight but still waiting for Slough.
It’ll be another Saturday video this week, as I’m at work all day from 0930!
See you then
Jun 12
Apsley & Corner Hall (Dacorum) Council By-Election Result:
🔶 LDM: 32.9% (-15.6)
➡️ RFM: 24.5% (New)
🌳 CON: 17.9% (-14.9)
🙋 Ind: 9.5% (New)
🌍 GRN: 8.0% (New)
🌹 LAB: 7.1% (-11.5)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.
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Jun 11
🗳️ BY-ELECTIONS TODAY
Polling under way in:
🌳 Christleton & Huntington ward, Cheshire West and Chester Council
🔶 Apsley and Corner Hall Ward, Dacorum Council
🌳 Cippenham Green, Slough Council
Previews below! 👇
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Jun 11
X has totally glitched and deleted all of the preview thread. 🤦♂️
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Jun 10
A lot of people want this community noted because it isn’t a real poll.
The post is very clear that it is this account’s prediction, it doesn’t claim to be a poll or be based on one.
Everyone is free to post their own predictions!
Jun 8
🚨BREAKING: GB Politics has released its second Makerfield by-election prediction
🌹 LAB: 38% (-2)
➡️ REF: 35% ( 2)
🦁 RES: 19% ( 2)
🔶 LDM: 3% (-1)
🌍 GRN: 2% (-1)
🌳 CON: 1% (-1)
☑️ OTH: 2% ( 1)
Changes w/ 26 May
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Jun 7
Still waiting for that Katie Lam defection btw…
🤔
EXCLUSIVE: Reform UK is vetting candidates for the Greater Manchester mayoral position.
Andy Burnham, the current Mayor of Greater Manchester, is Labour’s candidate for the Makerfield by-election. In the event that he wins the by-election, he will have to resign from his position as Mayor of Greater Manchester.
Sources at Reform HQ have told me that the party believes Andy Burnham will win with a "massive majority." One source added: "Restore Britain has lost us this election. We have to learn and understand why people are choosing them over us."
The party wants to select a local candidate for the mayoral race potentially someone like Dan Barker, who stood for the position in 2024 and is a member of the party’s board.
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Jun 5
⏬ Another big drop for the Tories this week, losing the seat in Westmoreland and Furness to Reform.
The good result in Fylde two weeks ago looks more like the exception than the rule.
⚠️ No video this evening as I am away from home with work. Will try and have something up for tomorrow morning.
Hawcoat & Newbarns (Westmorland & Furness) Council By-Election Result:
➡️ RFM: 48.4% (New)
🌹 LAB: 24.5% (-9.8)
🌳 CON: 19.0% (-21.5)
🌍 GRN: 5.1% (New)
🔶 LDM: 2.9% (-2.7)
No Ind (-19.6) as previous.
Reform GAIN from Conservative.
Changes w/ 2022.
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Jun 4
🗳️ BY-ELECTION TODAY (Thursday 4 June) in Hawcoat & Newbarns ward, Westmorland & Furness Council.
Caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Niyall Phillips (moving to Australia for work).
5 candidates standing in this Barrow-in-Furness ward.
Reform UK have a high-profile local candidate.
This is a real test on a Liberal Democrat-run council.
Full preview thread with candidates, history, council control & prediction 👇
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Jun 4
Council Control (Westmorland & Furness)
The council has been under Liberal Democrat majority control since its creation in 2023 (following Cumbria’s local government reorganisation).
Lib Dems have held a stable majority from the start. Next full elections are all-out in May 2027.
This by-election is in a Conservative-held seat in the more urban/industrial Barrow-in-Furness part of the authority.
The broader council covers a mix of rural, market-town and industrial areas, where LD strength is generally stronger outside the core Barrow wards.
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Jun 3
🚨Reform BACK UP to 30% in the Poll of Polls!
The post local election re-rating of Reform's vote share has continued across pollsters over the last fortnight, as has the Greens' slide as they're now back level with the Lib Dems.
What do you make of these numbers?
Also, see the replies for the vote share change and a note on this week's numbers...
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Jun 3
Note on this week's poll of polls:
When compiling the latest polling, I realised I hadn't added Ipsos to the list of pollsters after the local elections!
Why weren't they on there before? According to the Wikipedia page (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio…) there was no Ipsos poll at all between GE2024 and LE2025.
I weight pollsters based off of the accuracy of their last poll before the local elections. Therefore, I was unable to weight for Ipsos until LE2026.
I forgot to do this last time so here is what the 20th May edition should have said:
REF: 30%
LAB: 20%
CON: 20%
GRN: 15%
LIB: 14%
OTH: 4%
And therefore this week's changes are:
REF (-)
LAB ( 1)
CON (-)
GRN (-1)
LIB (-)
OTH (-)
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Election Watch retweeted
New council groups formed at the annual meeting disrupted two Essex councils this week - helping @Brentwood_BC but thwarting @yourcolchester in forming an administration. Included with details of all new council leaderships in this week's update: localcouncils.co.uk/2026/05/…
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Election Watch retweeted
May 28
🚨Reform takes control of Norfolk CC!
Cllr David Bick will lead the authority thanks to “an unspoken arrangement with GY First Cllrs”
“The 2 parties share a similar outlook on how the council should be run. GYF are both collaborative and very sensible”
edp24.co.uk/news/26147591.re…
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May 28
Blimey that’s some hit for the Tories!
May 28
Fairwood (Swansea) Council By-Election Result:
🔶 LDM: 29.3% ( 19.9)
🌹 LAB: 22.6% (-9.3)
➡️ RFM: 17.0% (New)
🙋 Ind: 11.5% (New)
🌳 CON: 10.3% (-30.3)
No PLC (-18.1) as previous.
Lib Dem GAIN from Conservative.
Changes w/ 2022.
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Who do Britons think is the main party of the right in the UK today
43% say Reform (rising to 74% of 2024 Reform voters)
17% say the Tories (40% of 2024 Tories)
6% say Restore (rising to 12% of 2024 Reform voters)
5% say the Liberal Democrats (rising to 19% of Lib Dem voters)
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May 28
🗳️ Fairwood ward by-election in Swansea is TODAY — the only council poll in Wales.
Swansea Council is Labour-controlled (43 seats out of 75).
But this seat is a Conservative defence that’s been vacant since the death of long-serving Cllr Paxton Hood-Williams (aged 82, recent Lord Mayor of Swansea) in March.
A rare chance for a flip in a rock-solid Tory ward.
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May 28
Six candidates on the ballot:
🌳 David William Helliwell – Conservative (defending)
🌹 Nigel Evans – Labour
🔶 Beth Rowe – Liberal Democrats
➡️ Stephen Taylor – Reform UK
🙋♂️ Paul Dennis – Independent (ex-Con/Reform)
🙋♂️ Matthew Alan Ward – Independent (was Plaid Cymru in 2022)
Reform entering the fray for the first time here adds extra spice.
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May 28
As we saw just three weeks ago, the Labour and Tory votes in Wales have crumbled...but can the Conservatives hold this long-time blue ward?
How low will the Labour vote go?
Could Reform win this?
Results expected late tonight/early tomorrow. Analysis on YouTube at 6pm PLUS a chat about #Makerfield.
#UKElections #Swansea #ByElection #Fairwood
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Election Watch retweeted
May 28
Makerfield By-Election Betting Odds with 3 Weeks To Go | Implied Chance:
LAB: 7/20 | 71% ( 11)
RFM: 10/3 | 22% (-8)
RES: 14/1 | 6% (-4)
GRN: 550/1 | 0% (-)
Via @oddschecker, 28 May.
Changes w/ 19 May.
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