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7 Nov 2024
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This is my updated 2026 US Senate map forecast.
Republicans are on track to easily retain their majority, winning 52 seats.
2026 US Senate
🔴Republicans 52
🔵Democrats 48
While Democrats are projected to flip North Carolina, they're expected to fall short in Maine, Texas, Ohio, and Alaska.
My forecast is based on 100,000 simulations for all 35 races on the ballot in November.
Forecast via @Pollsmax.
50
99
665
29,463
Jun 12
🚨GOP FLIP INCOMING: Republicans have a 70% chance of flipping Kansas' governorship in 2026.
Kansas - 2026 Governor (Odds)
🟥Ty Masterson 70.0%
🟦Ethan Corson 30.0%
Projected Margin: 🟥R 4.8%
With Democratic incumbent Laura Kelly term-limited, it's unlikely anyone from her party could match her previous success in November.
Forecast via @Pollsmax.
18
278
1,940
32,804
Jun 11
🚨BREAKING: Republican Susan Collins is projected to RETAIN Maine's US Senate seat.
Michigan - 2026 US Senate
🟥Susan Collins* 50.5% ( 1.1)
🟦Graham Platner 49.4%
Platner has recently secured his party's nomination, but his history of misogyny, sexual violence, and his Nazi tattoo will lead to a disaster for Democrats.
If Susan Collins wins reelection, Republicans will be nearly guaranteed to maintain their Senate majority.
Forecast via @Pollsmax.
87
225
1,802
43,491
Jun 10
🚨FIRST CA GOV POLL: Xavier Becerra leads by 23% in the race to succeed Gavin Newsom as California governor.
California - 2026 Governor
🟦Xavier Becerra 58% ( 23)
🟥Steve Hilton 35%
CEPP | May 23-26, 2026 | 735 LV
202
107
740
77,166
Jun 10
🚨HUGE NEW POLL: Republican Joe Lombardo leads in the Nevada governor's race by 3%.
Nevada - 2026 Governor
🟥Joe Lombardo* 45% ( 3)
🟦Aaron Ford 42%
Strategy Management | May 5-11, 2026 | 1,300 LV
18
130
1,360
20,264
Jun 10
🚨BREAKING: 🟦Aaron Ford is the projected winner of the Democratic primary for governor in Nevada.
Ford has served as Nevada attorney general since 2019 and will face off against 🟥Joe Lombardo* in the general election.
4
2
39
2,978
Jun 10
🚨BREAKING: 🟥Joe Lombardo* is the projected winner of the Republican primary for governor in Nevada.
Lombardo is running for reelection to a second term and will face off against 🟦Aaron Ford in the general election.
1
23
301
4,350
Jun 10
🚨BREAKING: 🟦Graham Platner is the projected winner of the Democratic primary for US Senate in Maine.
Platner is a Marine Corps veteran and will face off against 🟥Susan Collins* in the general election.
In recent weeks, new allegations have emerged against Platner regarding his Nazi tattoo, racist and sexist comments, and sexual violence.
15
9
35
4,017
Jun 10
🚨BREAKING: 🟥Alan Wilson is projected to advance to a runoff in the Republican primary for governor in South Carolina.
Wilson has served as South Carolina attorney general since 2011 and will feature in a runoff against 🟥Pamela Evette on June 23, 2026.
The winner of the runoff will easily win the general election in November.
2
11
93
4,202
Jun 10
🚨BREAKING: 🟥Susan Collins* is the projected winner of the Republican primary for US Senate in Maine.
Collins is running for reelection to a sixth term and will face off against 🟦Graham Platner in the general election.
10
37
294
6,049
Jun 9
🚨BREAKING: 🟥Lindsey Graham* is the projected winner of the Republican primary for US Senate in South Carolina.
Graham is running for reelection to a fifth term and will easily win the general election in November.
25
26
245
11,607
Jun 9
🚨BREAKING: 🟥Pamela Evette is projected to advance to a runoff in the Republican primary for governor in South Carolina.
Evette has served as South Carolina lieutenant governor since 2019 and will feature in a runoff against the primary's second-place finisher on June 23, 2026.
The winner of the runoff will easily win the general election in November.
5
48
265
9,820
Jun 9
🚨DEMOCRAT PANIC: Susan Collins leads in the Maine's US Senate race for the first time since January.
Maine - 2026 US Senate
🟥Susan Collins* 43.7% ( 0.6)
🟦Graham Platner 43.1%
It's clear that Platner's scandals are sinking his campaign. Democrats are in panic mode, but with the primary tonight, it'll basically be impossible to prevent Platner from being on the ballot.
Public Sentiment Institute | June 8, 2026 | 1,642 LV
32
213
1,562
42,969
Jun 8
🚨DEMOCRAT COLLAPSE: In Maine, Graham Platner's campaign against Susan Collins is imploding as he's hit by a new wave of scandals.
In the past week, have you read anything about Graham Platner?
🟢Yes 89%
🟠No 11%
How did what you heard about Graham Platner make you feel about him?
🟠More Negative 57%
⚪️Neither 30%
🟢More Positive 13%
Graham Platner - Favorability
🟠Unfavorable 51% ( 9)
🟢Favorable 42%
At this rate, Collins might even perform better than she did in 2020.
Tavern Research | June 5-8, 2026 | 1,642 A
33
62
335
21,807