NEW: The US has conducted at least 25 intelligence-gathering flights off the coast of Cuba since early February, per data from @FlightRadar24 Check out my analysis: cnn.com/2026/05/10/americas/…

A bit of personal news. Has anyone else lost their family property b/c of @StateFarm negligence & refusal to pay? Because we just did. 4 generations of Setmayers. Our 100yr family legacy lost, b/c of STATE Farm. Good neighbor is a LIE! Can anyone help us right this wrong?

Iran is the head of the snake for global terrorism, and through President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, we are winning this critical fight at an even faster pace than anticipated. In response to Iran’s terrorist attacks against global energy infrastructure, the Trump Administration will continue to deploy America’s economic and military might to maximize the flow of energy to the world, strengthen global supply, and seek to ensure market stability. Today, the Department of the Treasury is issuing a narrowly tailored, short-term authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil currently stranded at sea. At present, sanctioned Iranian oil is being hoarded by China on the cheap. By temporarily unlocking this existing supply for the world, the United States will quickly bring approximately 140 million barrels of oil to global markets, expanding the amount of worldwide energy and helping to relieve the temporary pressures on supply caused by Iran. In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down as we continue Operation Epic Fury. This temporary, short-term authorization is strictly limited to oil that is already in transit and does not allow new purchases or production. Further, Iran will have difficulty accessing any revenue generated and the United States will continue to maintain maximum pressure on Iran and its ability to access the international financial system. So far, the Trump Administration has been working to bring around 440 million additional barrels of oil to the global market, undercutting Iran’s ability to leverage its disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump’s pro-energy agenda has driven U.S. oil and gas production to record levels, strengthening energy security and lowering fuel costs. Any short-term disruption now will ultimately translate into longer-term economic gains for Americans – because there is no prosperity without security.

Your paracetamol is made from oil. The phenol comes from a cumene process that starts with naphtha. The naphtha comes from a refinery. The refinery’s feedstock transits the Strait of Hormuz. Ninety-nine percent of pharmaceutical feedstocks, solvents, reagents, and packaging are petrochemical-derived. The American Gas Association confirmed it. The medicine cabinet is the sixth layer of the Hormuz crisis and nobody is talking about it. The war started with uranium. It moved to oil. Then fertiliser. Then water. Then plastic. Now medicine. Paracetamol is 100 percent petrochemical. Phenol from cumene, converted to para-aminophenol, then acetylated. Ibuprofen is 100 percent petrochemical. Isobutylbenzene plus propionic acid derivatives. Metformin, the most prescribed diabetes drug on Earth, is 80 to 90 percent petrochemical. Dicyandiamide from natural gas derivatives. Antibiotics like amoxicillin and ciprofloxacin require methanol, acetone, and dichloromethane as solvents for extraction and crystallisation. Oncology drugs need cold-chain energy and plastic packaging. Every blister pack, every pill bottle, every syringe is PE, PP, or PET from Gulf naphtha. India makes 40 to 47 percent of American generic medicines by volume. It imports $4.35 billion in active pharmaceutical ingredients annually, 74 percent from China. But the critical precursors, the methanol and ethylene glycol that feed Indian API synthesis, are 87.7 percent and roughly 100 percent Hormuz-dependent respectively. The Indian government has prioritised household LPG over industrial petrochemical feedstock, starving the downstream pharmaceutical chain. API costs have surged 30 percent in the last two weeks. The typical buffer is two to three months of inventory. The war is nineteen days old. The clock started before the buffer was designed for this scenario. A diabetic in Ohio takes metformin every morning. The dicyandiamide that becomes the active ingredient traces back through a Chinese intermediate to a natural gas derivative that originated in the Gulf. The methanol used to crystallise the compound in a Hyderabad factory was shipped from a terminal that now sits behind the same strait controlled by provincial commanders with sealed orders. The blister pack was moulded from polyethylene derived from naphtha that loaded at a facility the IRGC published satellite targeting images of yesterday. One pill. Four petrochemical dependencies. One chokepoint. The farmer in Iowa cannot plant corn because nitrogen costs $610. The diabetic in Ohio may not be able to fill a prescription because methanol costs whatever the strait permits. Both crises trace to the same 21 miles of water. Both are governed by the same sealed packets. Both operate on biological clocks that do not negotiate with doctrine. Nitrogen decides whether the food grows. Methanol decides whether the medicine is synthesised. Polyethylene decides whether it reaches the shelf in a blister pack. Energy decides whether the cold chain holds for oncology and biologics. Every molecule in the pharmaceutical supply chain is now compromised by the same chokepoint that trapped the fertiliser, the gas, the plastic, and the water. Europe said Iran is not their war. Their existing drug shortages, 400 to 1,500 medicines depending on the country, will deepen regardless. Bangladesh, Egypt, and sub-Saharan Africa depend on Indian generics for infectious disease and maternal health. The API depletion clock runs for everyone. The strait does not distinguish between a urea molecule and a methanol molecule. Both are gated. Both are biological. And both determine whether human beings survive the next quarter. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanak…

CNN’s Alayna Treene has been promoted to Correspondent. Alayna will continue covering the White House for the network. Congratulations, @AlaynaTreene!

I talked with @EliseLabott of Cosmopolitics about Greenland and NATO earlier today. Watch and let us know what you think! newsletter.ivodaalder.com/p/…