Get Detroit a socialist mayor ASAP

South Carolina and Georgia are two states that haven’t been afraid to buck Trump endorsements in the past. It looks like South Carolina may do it again, despite Trump backing the establishment candidate this time.

The Commie Corridor celebrating the first day of Early Voting

Looks like Democrats may bow out of the Montana Senate race and clear the field for Bodnar, who is running as an independent. He has a real shot here. Osborn came within six points of winning Nebraska as an independent, and Montana is a slightly bluer state.

A really valuable piece of political science research here: Incumbents drawn into new seats tend to enjoy *nearly identical* incumbency boosts in new and old turf alike. Has big implications for certain races in 2026, like Shomari Figures in AL-02. decalibrate.substack.com/p/n…

Whenever I visit family in Michigan, I always make sure to eat here. It’s peak 🙂‍↔️ My relatives have asked me: “Is In-N-Out better?” Heck no. Not even comparable.

Missing from photo: a single precinct in Santa Clara County won by Matt Mahan, mayor of San Jose, after his very expensive campaign for Governor.

No one told me Steyerville (San Francisco) named a street after me 🥹

Change since March: 🟦 Platner -3% 🟥 Collins 3% It’s a Republican-leaning pollster, but it still shows movement toward Collins, consistent with other recent surveys.

NEW — Republicans made the House map redder, but Democrats remain clearly favored in VoteHub’s 2026 House forecast. @ZacharyDonnini breaks down how redistricting shifted the battlefield and what Democrats need to retake the majority. votehub.com/2026/06/12/repub…

NOW OUT: Our biggest project ever, Tabula America Genus and Suffragium are now out! Two maps that combined, can tell you practically everything about the US through demographics and election results. Genus: electioncord.com/genus/ Suffragium: electioncord.com/suffragium/ More 👇

Of the seven (now eight) ASR polls conducted, Sullivan led in just one, back in July–August of last year. Meanwhile, Peltola has been at or around 50% for nearly a year. It’s hard to see how she isn’t the favorite here.

🚨Nerd Alert 🚨 Especially for the LA Political Nerds. politicaldata.vote/ *Please use laptop/desktop, not optimized for phone This site takes LA County 2026 Primary Election Results, and the @Political_Data records of who voted... and breaks out analysis for EVERY election in LA (except judges) gives you the ability to: - Visualize precinct maps / winners in a district (and the LA portions of legislative/congressional seats) - Select sub-geographies (Mayor by council district, Senate by City, City council seat by neighborhood, etc) - See regression analysis of results by Age, Race, Party and ethnicity, showing correlations or lack thereof. - Take in the Ecological Inference analysis (viewer beware) which gives a statistical analysis of subgroup voting trends. Read the prompt before digging in, EI can seem strange! - Run correlations of candidates against each other - like you can see based on precinct-level data just how much was @nithyavraman tied to @TomSteyer or @kennethmejiaLA While there is a lot of stuff on LA Mayor, this has everything -so you could literally compare governor race to Glendale School board or Long Beach city council, or whatever. This is all experimental. Hope to build out to other counties as we can get access to the data. This was a lot of work... hope you enjoy!! Send feedback as I will continue to play around with this.

Had the entire country counted votes at Lake County’s 2024 pace, the 2024 election wouldn’t have been finished until 2910.

Tester carried Montana's 1st Congressional District by about a point in 2024. Highlighting his support could be an effective strategy for Forstag. No Democrat has received his backing here since Montana gained an additional congressional district.

Flippo is an extremely weak Republican nominee, which is why Amodei and Lombardo endorsed Settelmeyer in an effort to stop him. Now that he's won, this district should be on Democrats' radar heading into November. It's still a reach, but Flippo at least puts a flip in play.

Is he trying to boost McMorrow or something? Schumer should've figured out by now that publicly inserting himself into a primary rarely ends well for the candidate he endorses.

Shout out to this random majority-Hispanic precinct in Santa Ana that voted for Trump in 2024 and flipped to *Steyer* in the primary.

It’s very telling how Steyer will finish with a closer margin to Hilton but no one will discuss his campaign like this, it will be presented as voters “soundly rejecting” even when he gets close to 1/4 of the final vote total