I have been doing some research on
$OPEN.
The new CEO (
@nejatian) seems promising. Was COO at Shopify for 6 years. During that 6yr period Shopify stock increased by ~880%. I am not a huge equities investor but I am a real estate guy, and from what I have seen, I like it, here's why:
- I tested their process to sell a property we have, it was by far the simplest way I've seen. The rough offer I got was within 2 minutes, and was what I would consider to be fair. Though it does still leave enough room for OpenDoor to make money (as it should). As we know, less friction results in more conversions (ahem...elon). I was also a fan of the some now some later offer, I won't get into the math here but it can drive a much higher CoC depending on how their financing is structured.
- They cut ~250 jobs in India to focus more on AI and hiring locally (the future)
- He seems to move fast. Reading through his posts he doesn't dwell on one thing. As we know, speed wins.
- After reading some of Kaz's posts, I like him as a person. Seems very driven, with a true desire to help more people buy homes. (good)
- This is a small one, but a good indicator nonetheless. After visiting their Meta Ads Library and seeing some ads online, ALL of the comments are positive (as I would imagine with a process so simple). To further add, I am having a hard time finding negative things about them online.
- The CEO (Kaz) has quite the resume, and his tweets are very high conviction (this might be little to most, but means more than you think)
- He is also personally buying
$OPEN with cash. Either he is a nutjob or knows something, maybe both.
- They have approx. 1,000 employees. Seems like it runs relatively lean at this current time. I assume it will continue to shrink (headcount) due to AI. Both the CEO (
@nejatian) and CIO (
@yang_guo) have made comments that could be interpreted to say 'we are using AI and using it well'
they now send American flags to all homeowners (absolutely badass)
Anyways, here is what I would love to see from them:
- More of a direct to agent/MLS offer approach. Maybe it's an entirely new department. Lots of agents currently have listings with really high (relative) DOM (days on market). In return, you get pissed off sellers because a lot of them haven't even gotten an offer. OpenDoor can change this. I feel like most agents don't know this is an option.
- I would introduce a sell and stay option. Sellers get cash now, move when they want. Now it would be a much smaller (~5% of home value) amount. Lots of Americans are struggling right now and $10-$20k could help them. This would work via buying an option (just like in the stock market) on their home. Set price, set expiration, etc. If they never want to move, it becomes exercisable upon death. You could bundle these and sell to funds, FO's, etc. Or exercise in house, and provide more housing to Americans. This might also give you a pricing edge over the rest of the market. Price (the exit side) using tried and true-d black scholes model. Your option consideration could be calculated using a discount (75-80% of the BS calculation) This could be a HUGE profit driver. It also gives you the ability to find winning markets without deploying $100's of thousands of dollars per property. (Much higher leverage and this could be done with VERY little overhead, like a 5 person team)
- Maybe introduce a marketplace that allows homeowners to buy and take over others assumable mortgages. I know there are some current companies that are trying to do this (
withroam.com) etc.
Overall I think it is a 10/10 and will be buying shares consistently.
If
@nejatian or
@yang_guo read this and like any of the ideas, I have a serious offer:
I will relocate wherever I need I to, I don't want a paycheck, I want to help. Throw me some shares and I am more than willing to build out any of the above.
If by (small) chance you would take me up on this, DM me.