Joined November 2019
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14 Apr 2022
0/14 An Application of Stochastic Programming to FPL: robust planning under fixture uncertainty using Linear Optimisation with Recourse โคต๏ธ
ALT https://www.hindawi.com/journals/mpe/2015/741329/
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36 players are on the #WCFantasy scouting bonus wire right now - between 4โ6% ownership
The tracker is updating live, and plenty are moving both ways ahead of the deadline ๐๐
๐ wcfscouting.solioanalytics.cโฆ
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Some other cool stuff:
I was just 5 similar-EV captaincy choices away, or 4 similar-EV transfers away, from a top 10k finish
(I finished at 82k)
An additional 4 different similar-EV transfers could have lifted me to top 1k.
This week at @SolioAnalytics we shared Season Reports with Tier 4 subscribers!
It contained lots of cool & novel stuff. My favourite part: we simulated 2000 full seasons of outcomes for 3.5m active FPL managers.
I won 3 of these!
Also, 25% of my sim'd top 1ks were top 100s.
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Out of all ~3.5m active managers, 2 of my 3 most similar managers were 2 of my fellow Solio teammates! Seems we play the Solio way (or someone is copying)
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Also, my mins predictions were *awful* compared to those of @FPL_Spaceman & @robtFPL
I will stick to the defaults more often next season ๐
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This week at @SolioAnalytics we shared Season Reports with Tier 4 subscribers!
It contained lots of cool & novel stuff. My favourite part: we simulated 2000 full seasons of outcomes for 3.5m active FPL managers.
I won 3 of these!
Also, 25% of my sim'd top 1ks were top 100s.
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This is a nice indicator that despite a relatively very poor season for accumulating projected points, my high-risk play style optimised well for extreme positive outcomes.
It should only take a thousand years or so for this strategy to pay off, on average.
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The โscouting bonusโ in #WCFantasy seems fun
We made a small, free tool to track:
โ
newly eligible players
๐ players drifting <5%
๐ players drifting >5%
โญ your team/watchlist
Updates dynamically - could be total chaos near tomorrowโs deadline ๐
๐ wcfscouting.solioanalytics.cโฆ
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Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Jun 4
Model was great:
โข player level: 23,810 player-gameweeks, average error โ0.02 pts. It's well calibrated.
โข manager level: projected vs actual season points, basically on the diagonal.
Unbiased overall selected shortfall at the optimized top.
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Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
May 15
You are kicking back after a long day at work, when you spot there is a Friday deadline. Top 10k is within reach. You turn to your FPL solver which generates a nice varied range of paths for you to choose from based on your own inputs and beliefs.
How do you open?
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Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
๐จ LIVE STREAM ๐จ
@Pras_fpl and @FPL_Spaceman will be going live this evening with @FF_Trout and @sertalpbilal to discuss the final two gameweeks and reflect on the FPL season.
Starting around 9pm
๐ youtube.com/live/KVw3T67eGDc
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Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Apr 23
Hedging is back in!
It can be a fairly valid strategy if looking to reduce outcome variability - especially with defcons dampening the negative correlation between opposing defenders and attackers!
This was a draft from @FF_Trout solving for reduced relative risk, for example:
Apr 23
Seeing a few Free Hit teams with both an Everton attacker and a West Ham defender... #FPL
Feel you have to pick an outcome here, either you think Everton score or they don't...
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Individual fixtures are noisy - but across seasons and leagues, market projections reliably outperform a โlast 6 gamesโ average
For #FPL, they're generally a much better starting point than recent form
Apr 21
Arsenal 2.14 projected goals but havenโt scored more than 2 goals in their last 6 games ๐คฃ
Market projections clearly donโt have eyes
People who blindly follow these stats and ignore their eyes are the ones with high fpl ranks and they donโt understand why
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Early๐งตto highlight some of the more reliable #FPL picks from key BGW34 teams
Playing time & output over the last 12GWs ๐
1) LIV (CRY-H)
- Virgil goal threat & DEFCON
- Salah hard to ignore; Szobo mins set pieces; Wirtz & Gakpo viable options
- Isak still building fitness?
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Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Apr 17
Thanks so much to @FF_Trout from @SolioAnalytics for coming on for 2 hours the time just flew past! Great conversations about risk, fixtures, our teams and everything football related with great back and forth bants to top it all off, what a first live guest for the late mail!
Apr 16
Very excited about this! But tomorrow we have our first live guest on the late mail! I am being joined by @SolioAnalytics own @FF_Trout! This man is on WC and I am on FH! I can't wait to have some good FPL banter with this legend! Approx 6pm UK start!
youtube.com/live/wk3-R0tM1YI
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Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Apr 16
Very excited about this! But tomorrow we have our first live guest on the late mail! I am being joined by @SolioAnalytics own @FF_Trout! This man is on WC and I am on FH! I can't wait to have some good FPL banter with this legend! Approx 6pm UK start!
youtube.com/live/wk3-R0tM1YI
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Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Apr 1
Another interactive visualization from the Solio team for FPL.
This time we have generated all possible scenarios for you to check! (There are 2262 of them)
Surprisingly just focusing on 11 scenarios, you can cover more than 51% of all possible combinations.
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Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Apr 1
What will the FA cups games this weekend mean for #FPL?
Instead of a graphic this time, we've made an interative tool for visualising the blank and double gameweek permutations ๐๏ธ
Have a play and let me know what you think!
๐ interactive.solioanalytics.cโฆ
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Solio projected #FPL points and picks | GW31
Minutes updated after press conferences - these are the current top projected players & an example FH team ahead of today's deadline ๐
Projections will auto-update until deadline
๐ fpl.solioanalytics.com
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Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Mar 20
Had a couple requests for help with people's teams this week, so thought I'd walk through a demo using @lateriser12's team to talk about how I've been using @SolioAnalytics stochastic optimizer to stay flexible for non-WC32 lines. Hope it's useful!
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Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Mar 20
whoops a few small errors here is corrected version (csv was correct, just graphic was wrong)
Mar 20
Since Crystal Palace beat AEK Larnaca tonight, then MCI-CRY fitting back into GW31 (or into GW32 to form a double) is now off the table.
These are my top projected permutations of rearranged fixtures from simulations of the relevant cup competitions โฌ๏ธ
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