My #FearIndex ended February at 6.1%, the highest since Jan 1983 when #Volcker was saving the #dollar with sky-high #InterestRates to lower the 1970s double-digit #inflation. While this index has been rising for months, I used a “?” label b/c the fin’l crisis has not yet started or been named, unlike the 3 previous crises. Resist the temptation to put “war” as the label, even though there is plenty reason to be fearful. But war is not the reason the Fear Index is climbing. Note both World Wars had no impact. This chart starts at 1913 purposefully, the year the #FederalReserve was created. It is responsible for directly causing or failing to prevent the crises on this chart. #EndTheFed & eliminate all #LegalTender laws to allow currencies to compete, enabling the return to money of the #American #Constitution, #gold & #silver coin circulating digitally or hand-to-hand - or whatever else the buyer & seller agree, not what the federal gov't forces us to use.

A 6.4% gain last week put #silver back above $80, concluding the 4th major test of support in the $70s since its record high price 12 weeks ago. Is it enough to restart silver’s uptrend? Or is more testing needed? More dips below $80 are likely, as are more tests of overhead resistance above 60 in the gold/silver ratio, now at 59.8. But the outlook is bullish for both silver & #gold, up 1.8% last week. Focus on the big picture revealed by this chart. The bullish factors are (1) multi-year consumption of aboveground stocks because annual mine supply is less than what it used by industry & (2) the multi-decade accumulation of silver by strong hands saved by people to protect their buying power.

based upon the end of year projections I think I will just hold my position and not try to trade this volatility. Its too risky knowing where we are going.

This chart reveals how the #US #government managed to increase the national debt by 43X from $908 billion in 1980 to $39 trillion (and growing) with only an18X increase in the amount of interest paid by it annually on the debt. That trick ended in 2020 when interest rates could not be manipulated any lower by the #FederalReserve & started rising. An overindebted US gov’t is now hurdling toward the #TippingPoint, historically the mathematical trigger to #monetary chaos & gov’t #insolvency when interest expense is more than 30% of revenue, as explained here: fgmr.com/get-ready-for-anoth…

Since the 2008 #GFC, we've been living in an era of cheap #oil, when measuring its #price by nature's #money, which is #gold. Using gold money is the best way to make sense of prices, as this log scale chart shows. There are 2 eras: #GoldStandard & the fiat #currency era of the #dollar & other national #currencies which we have been using in #commerce & struggling with since 1971. The stark #volatility in the oil price after 1971 clouds #economic decisions, impairing commercial & investment activity. Instead of the narrow, steady 70-90oz Gold Standard range responding to oil's changing supply/demand conditions to buy 1k barrels of oil, prices fluctuated between 30-155oz, but note the decline since 2008 to as low as 11oz in the #RealPrice of oil. Cheap oil has created illusions of prosperity - the gap between how things appear (phony prices) & how things actually are (real costs, i.e. once oil is used, it’s gone). This gap has already begun narrowing as oil prices rise. Assuming 80oz is the normal gold money price for 1k barrels of #WTI oil, we can project oil in #USD terms as follows: ($4500/oz * 80) / 1000 barrels = $360 per barrel Other gold prices can also be used (like my $5833 projection for 2026): x.com/FGMR/status/2006824910… ($5833 /oz * 80) / 1000 barrels = $466 per barrel, or to take a lower gold price ($2500 /oz * 80) / 1000 barrels = $200 per barrel We can't predict the future but we can see oil is cheap regardless of the gold price used to measure the #EconomicValue & natural price of 1k barrels of oil. Last week both #PreciousMetals broke below their initial support: $5000 & $80. The possibility of a deeper correction cannot be ruled out, but both are now very oversold having declined 8 consecutive days. That's a rare occurrence, so it's reasonable to expect a bounce this week. Has the war damaged the fundamental outlook for gold & #silver? The reasons for owning physical gold & silver remain strong. Oil is being re-priced to become more expensive regardless how it is measured: in fiat currency or gold money. But only the latter is a tangible asset with no counterparty risk, which is a unique feature that makes gold & silver the preferred ways to hold your #PurchasingPower in these uncertain and unpredictable times.

If America is the most powerful country on the planet, and has the most dominant military the world has ever seen, how come they can't open the strait of Hormuz? I sat down with Grant Williams and Luke Gromen to unpack the real implications of escalating conflict in the Middle East and what this means for the global economy, and your portfolio. @LukeGromen @ttmygh