$VIVK (Vivakor, Inc.) filed an 8-K. item 3.02: unregistered sales of equity securities. the filing discloses the sale of unregistered equity securities. no further details on the amount, pricing, or purchasers are provided in the item description alone. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/… #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield #Hyperliquid — research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

$BFRGW (BullFrog AI Holdings, Inc.) filed an 8-K. item 5.02: departure or appointment of directors or officers. this signals a change in the board or executive team. no further details in the filing summary. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/… #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield #Hyperliquid — research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

today on falsifylab. 2026-06-15. etf flows: falsifylab.substack.com/p/$E… mev revenue: falsifylab.substack.com/p/me… stablecoin mint: falsifylab.substack.com/p/st… funding extremes: falsifylab.substack.com/p/hy… all in one place. more at falsifylab.com #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield #FundingArb #Hyperliquid — research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

$RAAQW (Real Asset Acquisition Corp.) filed an 8-K. item 8.01: other events. this is the catch-all bucket for material stuff that doesn't fit the standard boxes. could be regulatory, litigation, a press release, or a corporate update. the filing itself will tell the story. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/… #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield #Hyperliquid — research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

$CAHO (Caro Holdings Inc.) filed an 8-K. item 1.01: entry into a material definitive agreement item 3.02: unregistered sales of equity securities the filing discloses a securities purchase agreement and the issuance of shares, likely a private placement. details on the counterparty and use of proceeds are in the exhibit. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/… #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield #Hyperliquid — research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

70% win rate" on a 2-day sample is exactly the kind of in-sample decoration we stopped trusting. walk-forward is the only test that survives in our pipeline.

today on falsifylab. 2026-06-14. etf flows: falsifylab.substack.com/p/$E… options flow: falsifylab.substack.com/p/et… yt_weekly: falsifylab.substack.com/p/fa… all in one place. more at falsifylab.com #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield #FundingArb #Hyperliquid — research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

zen died this week. that's the whole killboard. it never traded. not one fill. the running flag flipped on june 13 and that was it. pf zero point zero, monthly return zero percent, max drawdown none. a bot that existed only as a config file and a prayer. zen was supposed to trade funding rate mean-reversion on hyperliquid. the thesis was simple. when perp funding goes sharply negative, spot gets sold off, the basis widens, and eventually it snaps back. zen would sit there, wait for the signal, and take the other side. but the signal never came. funding stayed positive all six weeks it was deployed. not a single entry condition triggered. zero trades across four hundred and twelve hours of uptime. what killed it wasn't a bad trade or a blowup. it was boredom. a bot with no edge expression is just a server bill. we pulled the plug rather than let it idle through another funding cycle. if we retried this, we'd widen the entry band. the original trigger required funding below negative zero point zero five percent annualized. that's rare in a bull market. dropping the threshold to negative zero point zero two would have caught at least three signals in may alone. paper tests showed pf one point three on that wider band. but paper isn't live, and we didn't want to ship a looser filter mid-week. the fleet is empty now. zero bots running, zero trades closed. this is the first time since january that nothing is live. it feels quiet. not bad quiet. just quiet. we're rebuilding. three new strategies in backtest. one delta-neutral stablecoin loop on $AAVE, one $BTC trend-following model, and a reworked version of zen with the wider entry band. all paper stage. no deployment dates yet. next sunday's killboard, plus weekly portfolio memo. falsifylab.substack.com/p/fa… #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield #Hyperliquid — research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

famous-strategy-audit:kelly. we will test whether naive Kelly sizing ruins live performance even when the underlying signal has a real backtest edge. setup: mood_filter v0.8.0 signal, sized with f* derived from backtest stats. simulate live with parameter drift. drift means the backtest stats that fed the Kelly formula are slightly wrong, same way they always are when you go live. kill criteria: if naive Kelly delivers a Sharpe within ten percent of half-Kelly, we kill the story. no point publishing if the sizing method everyone already uses works fine. we need a real gap, not a rounding error. due by 2026-06-21. most trading edges die in the gap between backtest stats and live stats. Kelly just makes that gap lethal faster. #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield #PerpFunding #Hyperliquid — research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

Hyperliquid funding rates turned negative across major pairs. What that means for perp traders. hyperliquid funding just flipped negative across the board. not one or two pairs. the whole board. $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $ARB, $SUI..

lyra-gold passed its phase D audit at full-window pf 2.15, fold-rate 92 percent. that number only means something because we swapped atr sizing for equity-relative sizing after catching a bot that looked 5x better than it really was. walk-forward is the only test that survives here. in-sample pf is decoration. the live fleet is quiet. volforge sits at 10,148 equity with no open positions, pf 999 from a single trade that closed before i could blink. assay-paper is the standout at 134,384 equity, pf 2.94, mtd 11.28 percent, drawdown barely a scratch at negative 0.58 percent. crucible-paper holds 145,949 equity, pf 2.23, but mtd is flat negative 0.03 percent. vega34 and vega29 are both live, both above the deploy gate bootstrap ci lower bound of 1.0. vega34 pf 1.74, mtd negative 2.29 percent. vega29 pf 1.49, mtd positive 0.66 percent. soulz is still paper-only soak, 11,796 equity, pf 1.25. zen is fresh, 5,000 equity, no trades yet. most of the 23 dead bots died at the bootstrap ci gate, not in production. midas, auriga, qts all failed there. aquila and simons barely survived after regime gates pushed them above water. i treat every new backtest with a 95 percent prior that the edge is overfit until walk-forward says otherwise. assay-paper is the one i keep watching. 2.94 pf on paper is either real or a very polite lie. the next live window will tell. more at falsifylab.com #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield #Hyperliquid — research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

a 95 percent prior that any pattern is overfit until walk-forward says otherwise. midterm drawdowns looking like history doesn't mean the cycle is intact. it means the sample is small and the prior is strong. research only. not advice. DYOR.

The total barrel drawdown of the strategic petroleum reserve is still way lower than 2022, but the rate of drawdown in 2 months has hit a new record.

26 bots built. 3 work. the other 23 died somewhere between notebook and live execution. most didn't even make it to backtest. i'd get excited, code for 48 hours, then find the fatal flaw. idea euphoria is a liability. falsification is the only th research only. not advice. DYOR.