My content helps you beat the books in sports betting. NBA/NFL/WNBA CLV getter. I post highlight threads daily. Contributor @YahooSports & @ActionNetworkHQ

Joined March 2022
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OG ANUNOBY FINALS MVP BETTORS 🚨 I’ve been asked so many times about how to hedge this bet, not one has considered doing it through OG Anunoby Finals MVP: NO on a prediction market. I don’t advise grabbing Brunson as the means to hedge. Probably ok but dangerous practice. Probably just ride OG, second option bet NO.
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Why say this?
Rick Brunson: "I'm gonna stop the argument too, no disrespect, I love my son, Patrick Ewing is the greatest Knick that I've ever witnessed.” Kenny Smith: "Well, I'm gonna say it, it's gonna be debatable now.” (h/t @MrBuckBuckNBA)
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Knicks players who were on the team last season but not this season: Precious Achiuwa MarJon Beauchamp Cameron Payne P.J. Tucker Delon Wright Jericho Sims Matt Ryan Jacob Toppin Anton Watson * Guerschon Yabusele was a notable player on the Knicks who was traded mid season and likely still will receive a championship ring
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An astounding amount of Knicks gear walking the streets of Tokyo right now. I’m high fiving random strangers on the street.
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Michael Fiddle retweeted
FROM NOW ON ADDRESS ME AS CHAMP! 🧡💙
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Kelsey Plumson tonight for the WNBA fans
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Michael Fiddle retweeted
Knicks in 5. (C)- Raheem Palmer Yall better put some respect on my fucking name!!!! Give me mine while I'm here!!!!
I’m willing to look foolish but I think people will be surprised by how easily the Knicks beat the Spurs. I’m going Knicks in 5. I’m on an island here but I think the Knicks are severely underrated and the clear better team. Unlike the Thunder, the Knicks can win the Wemby minutes so the Spurs margin for error is much lower than it was against OKC.
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Mitch Johnson said Fox would have the ball late in 4th quarter again. The people said give it to Harper. The Spurs gave it to Harper. Smoked a layup, missed 2 FTs. Same result anyways. Knicks are NBA Champions.
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Bump! This!!!! (But not necessarily true) If you’re inclined to hedge, you probably overbet originally. But you want go back in time and change that if you did, and thus there are some that should hedge. There are others that bet this pre playoffs with insane payouts where EG >>> EV (h/t @DoctorRazzWSOP) The OG Yes/No market is also 33% yes, 68% no, so it’s a very low hold and very minimal -EV to get into to hedge, and that can be fine. PMs make hedging way more reasonable than the past, which is often very understated against traditional hedging talk about it’s usually always a bad idea. It’s not anymore and we need to catch up with the times here.
Replying to @FiddlesPicks
if you want to hedge here you should have just bet less originally. just had about the best possible case play out for yes
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“Longing for the days when sports brought together people of disparate beliefs” **reads deep into comments on a post just to be a hater and try to divide**
Arguing over the WNBA is so silly. Nobody cares.
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My bets for this WNBA slate are LA Sparks 1.5 (0.75u) DAL Wings -5.5 (0.5u) DAL Wings -225 (0.5u risked) Considering adding LA/PHX Under, no play yet.
Projected Lineups 6/13
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Michael Fiddle retweeted
luckily for math, doesn't matter much what you think Fox is career 75% FT shooter. so ~1.5 pt EV on getting fouled the rough prob on the layup decision is p(make)*2 p(fouled) * 0.75 ... if we give a 65% chance he makes the layup, and a 15% chance he's fouled, that's 1.41 pts
I think Fox would’ve missed at least one of the two free throws 🤷‍♂️
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4️⃣ Lastly, back-to-back threes from Natisha Hiedeman to cut the lead to single digits 😤 🧵 (4/5)
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Another night, another slate packed with incredible plays in the W! Which play stood out to you the most? 👀👇 Follow for daily WNBA highlights, reactions, and threads all season long. 🏀🔥 🧵 (5/5)
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3️⃣ Another 4-point play—this time from Janelle Salaün! 💥✨ She was HOT against the Storm, ended with 22 PTS and 5 Threes! 🧵 (3/5)
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2️⃣ How about this 4-point play from Marina Mabrey? 🔥 Erupted for 13 points in the final 1:45 of Q4 🧵 (2/5)
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The WNBA is GREAT! 🔥 Here are 4 must-watch highlights from last night’s slate 👀 1️⃣ Let's kick things off with a game-winner from Sonia Citron! 😱🎯 Cold-blooded! 🧵 (1/5)
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Do you know how HARD it is to get 5k down on a prop line at Bet365/(insert rec book)?* Do you know how EASY it is to get 5k down on Game 5 of NBA Finals side or total? To say unit size should be a measure of edge on a play and nothing else should matter lacks such awareness of market dynamics. It would be soooo easy to say I’m betting 3u-5u on all of these at good volume and be “Up 200 UNITS THIS NBA SEASON AND 60 UNIT RUN LAST 10 DAYS.” It would also be so disingenuously untrue and absurd. I would LOVE to be able to get down 5u on overnight nba props at a bet365. LOVEEEE. The edges are massively more advantageous to than betting a main market in that same nba game when posted limits are 5k , or prediction market liquidity was there for it. The unit size I put next to my plays factors in market timing, market type i am betting into, availability of the line, and more and perceived edge is further away from the most important thing than you would think. I keep it true to what I am doing. The reality is honesty and integrity, which I pride myself on and unfortunately a lot this space lacks (and sometimes other people lack of integrity gets unjustly thrown onto me as it’s assumed im one in the same). If the way I approach that is too high level, that’s a skill issue on your part not something I need to correct. *note from star above: getting 5k down on props at rec book is possible and takes skill. It’s something I would love to be better at, feel free to DM me if that’s something you know a lot about or think you can help.
💯 Unit size typically is a measure of the perceived edge you have on a play. Nothing else should factor in
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The WNBA is GREAT! 🔥 Here are 4 must-watch highlights from last night’s slate 👀 1️⃣ Is the Indiana Fever defense finally showing up? What a block from Myisha Hines-Allen 🚫 🧵 (1/5)
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4️⃣ What a night from downtown for the Point Gawd, Chelsea Gray! 🎯🔥 9 triples and ties the WNBA record for most threes in a game! 🧵 (4/5)
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Another night, another slate packed with incredible plays in the W! Which play stood out to you the most? 👀👇 Follow for daily WNBA highlights, reactions, and threads all season long. 🏀🔥 🧵 (5/5)
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