luckily for math, doesn't matter much what you think
Fox is career 75% FT shooter. so ~1.5 pt EV on getting fouled
the rough prob on the layup decision is p(make)*2 p(fouled) * 0.75 ... if we give a 65% chance he makes the layup, and a 15% chance he's fouled, that's 1.41 pts
I think Fox would’ve missed at least one of the two free throws 🤷♂️