If your paycheck didn’t increase by 30%, you took a pay cut.

The CEO of Anthropic just warned that AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs within 5 years. Now he says AI companies may need to be taxed to fund UBI. We have two choices: 1. The Easy Way: Tax AI companies, fund UBI, and keep society running. 2. The Hard Way: Mass layoffs, hunger, and riots. So here's the real question. Universal basic income will come one of two ways. Will it be the easy way, or the hard way?

Purchasing power of $100 since leaving the gold standard: 1971: $100.00 1981: $45.00 1991: $30.00 2001: $23.00 2011: $18.00 2021: $15.00 2026: $13.00 The dollar has lost 87% of its value since we left the gold standard in 1971.

The Fed runs a real-time tracker of what people spend at stores and restaurants. Almost nobody watches it. This week, it flipped negative. Real spending: Feb 0.8% → April flat → May -1.3%. What a turn. Here’s why it matters. The consumer is 2/3 of the entire economy. When people pull back, it spreads. Bad timing too. Inflation’s at a 3-year high (4.2%). Gas up 40%. The share of workers stuck looking for work over 27 weeks just hit 27.5%, up from 20.4% a year ago. Prices up → you spend less → sales drop → hiring slows → repeat.

In 2006, $100k bought a home, two cars, and a vacation. Run that same salary today. Taxes take about $26k. You’re at $74k. Rent at $2,500 a month takes $30k. You’re at $44k. Groceries and eating out take $9k. You’re at $35k. Car payment, insurance, and gas take $11k. You’re at $24k. Health insurance, utilities, and phone take $7k. You’re at $17k. One vacation and a gym membership take $5k. You’re at $12k. That’s $1k a month to save, invest, and build a life. $100k is the new $50k.

JUST IN: The US is now the world’s LARGEST oil exporter. 10.5 million barrels a day. That’s how much oil America now ships out. More than Saudi Arabia. More than Russia. In ‘73, Arab oil producers cut America off and crushed our economy. Gas stations ran dry. Drivers waited in lines for hours. 53 years later, the tables have turned. America now dominates oil exports AND the world’s reserve currency. No country has held both at once.

2 million Americans haven't had a paycheck in over 6 months. That's up 524,000 in a year. The most since 2021. That’s now 27.5% of ALL unemployed Americans. A year ago it was only 20%. Here's why this matters: Unemployment benefits stop at week 26 in most states. So the moment you cross into this group, the safety net disappears. And companies aren't hiring. If you don't have a job, you're stuck in line behind everyone who lost theirs after you. Recent grads can't even get in the line. The longer you're out, the harder it gets. Hiring managers see a resume gap and move on. Which extends the gap. It's a doom loop. And 2 million people are stuck in it.

$260 million. That's how much traders spent yesterday betting that chip stocks will fall further. Yesterday, traders bought 5 puts for every call on SMH. (A "put" is a bet a stock drops. SMH is the biggest semiconductor fund, holding stocks like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD.) $260 million of the $350 million in SMH options premium were puts. QQQ traded $3.7 billion in options and $2.5 billion were puts. (QQQ tracks the 100 biggest Nasdaq stocks.) And one more stat that should get your attention: Put open interest hit 1.7 million contracts. The highest EVER recorded going back to 2011. (Open interest means bets still live and on the table, not closed out.) Everyone's watching chip prices and almost nobody's watching the options market. Price tells you what people hope. Options tell you what they fear. And right now, fear is outspending hope 5 to 1.

Are you concerned about the inflation number that came out this morning? President Trump: “I love the inflation.”

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Inflation ruined my ability to judge what things should cost now $100 gas to fill up your car? Whatever. $3,000 rent for a one-bedroom? Fine. $10,000 for Knicks Tickets? OK. But a rotisserie chicken from Costco? $5. This is the new economy

My grandparents bought their first home for the price of my groceries this year. That's the current economy.

Anndddd more inflation. US inflation just hit 4.2%, its highest in 3 years. That’s more than DOUBLE the Fed’s target. Your dollar now buys 23% less than it did in 2020. And most people have no idea what’s coming next.

You pay into Social Security your whole life and now the Government says it can only pay you back 78% of it. That's $500 less every month, on average. The new Social Security trustees' report just dropped and says the retirement trust fund runs dry at the end of 2032. Three months earlier than last year's projection. Once the trust fund empties, the program can only pay what it collects. And that only covers 78% of promised benefits. That's $500 less each month for the average retiree.

The S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high last week. But only 20 of 500 stocks hit one with it. The last time this happened was March 2000. The exact top of the dot-com bubble. And the Nasdaq lost 78%. Here's what the headlines don't show you: 1. 222 S&P 500 stocks are down over 20% below their highs 2. Another 109 are down over 40% 3. And barely half trade above their 200-day average This narrow breadth showed up in 1929. In Japan in 1989. In March 2000. And every time, it was the warning before the turn. The system is built to hide this from you. Index funds keep buying the same 20 winners because they're the biggest weights. That pushes them higher. Which makes them bigger weights. Which means more buying. The index will tell you everything's fine right up until it isn't. Market breadth is telling the truth.

RIP to college grads looking for jobs. Thousands of jobs are about to disappear.

Investors who know what’s coming next

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When you finally have some money saved up but inflation is red hot