I remain skeptical about the prospects for a comprehensive US-Iran agreement, but the signing of the peace deal is a very bullish signal for the future of the Middle East and the prospects for a new flourishing in the aftermath of war.
Given the unprecedented nature of the war in the Gulf, the diplomacy that was necessary to get a peace deal signed, and the mechanics of its implementation, we should consider this the first *regional* peace deal in the history of the Middle East. Every major power in the region had a hand in the deal's formulation and the consensus building necessary for its adoption.
There is a long road ahead, but the logic and framework of this peace deal could underpin a new regional security architecture for the region. If Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Oman, and Egypt continue their engagements on the issues raised by the outbreak of the war, the understandings reached since February (on redlines, vulnerabilities, capabilities, and interdependencies etc.) could become the basis of new norms and institutions. Among the regional powers, the UAE may continue to hedge, but I think they can be convinced about the merits of this approach and the reported steps taken to help shore this deal indicate momentum in that direction.
How this deal came about should completely shift the received wisdom about the sophistication of regional powers when it comes to managing escalation and pursuing diplomacy. Too many policymakers in Washington and European capitals have held their counterparts in the Middle East in low esteem, refusing to listen to them, to recognize their agency, to appreciate their wisdom. It was Arab, Pakistani, Turkish, and Iranian diplomats who got the world out of a crisis, one created by Washington and abetted by European governments all too eager to see their bases, aircraft, and munitions used to wage war in the Middle East, especially in the "defense" of Israel.
For its part, Israel, which has twice instigated war against Iran to avoid a reckoning over the genocide it committed, should be isolated until it abandons its zero-sum approach to security. There is another way. In the past year, every single country in the region has shown itself to be more moderate and responsible than Israel.
The remarkable thing about this war and its conclusion is not that regional powers responded to the threat posed by Iran, but rather that these powers, including Iran itself, were able to manage the chaos created by Trump at the behest of Israel, and that they did so by reaching a consensus position on what an acceptable peace looks like. This is a significant and positive development for the region and it deserves to be celebrated and consolidated.