The Evacuation Mystery: If Not Agni-6, Then What?
Reports have now emerged that nearly 11,000 people in Odisha's Balasore district have been evacuated ahead of a test expected in the coming days.
Such large-scale evacuations generally happen when a completely new missile system is being tested and DRDO does not yet possess sufficient real-world data related to its flight path, propulsion, fuel, navigation systems, and overall performance. In such cases, authorities prefer not to take risks and evacuate civilians from the estimated danger zone.
The last time similar reports surfaced was before the first Divyastra test in March 2024. However, when Divyastra was tested again recently in May, no such displacement took place. By then, DRDO had already gathered enough flight data and was confident about the system's performance.
This raises an interesting question: Is India preparing to test an entirely new missile system?
And is it Agni-6, as several media reports are claiming?
At the moment, that seems unlikely.
The biggest reason is the NOTAM. Agni-6 is widely believed to have a range of around 10,000 km or more. Yet the NOTAM issued for June 15–16 reportedly covers only around 260 km, although its vertical limit extends to Unlimited. That kind of warning area appears more consistent with an air-to-air, surface-to-air, or high-altitude interceptor-type system rather than a long-range ballistic missile.
Based on the available warning area, the upcoming test does not appear to point towards a major ballistic missile launch. Of course, that assessment could change if a new NOTAM is issued in the coming days.
For now, the bigger mystery may not be Agni-6.
It may be something else entirely.