Joined October 2025
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Another interesting tidbit is that the online "Abundance" backlash to blue state governance may be seeping into real voters. For example, AG Rob Bonta, the worst performing Dem, got 78% of the vote in San Francisco, compared to 94% for Congressional Dems.
Pending some final ballots, it looks like Democrats will win the House primaries in California by 30%, roughly 65-35. This is a larger margin than any statewide race, and represents an 10% shift from the 2024 results. Notably, this is actually better than Dems performance in 2018 primaries, when Republicans failed to contest 6 seats (versus 1 this time).
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Will have some more on this later, but in general the CA results are consistent with a blue year where most Dem gains come from working class voters and groups that swung to Trump in 2024. But caveat that CA Republicans have often overperformed in suburbs (especially SoCal) in primaries before.
Pending some final ballots, it looks like Democrats will win the House primaries in California by 30%, roughly 65-35. This is a larger margin than any statewide race, and represents an 10% shift from the 2024 results. Notably, this is actually better than Dems performance in 2018 primaries, when Republicans failed to contest 6 seats (versus 1 this time).
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Pending some final ballots, it looks like Democrats will win the House primaries in California by 30%, roughly 65-35. This is a larger margin than any statewide race, and represents an 10% shift from the 2024 results. Notably, this is actually better than Dems performance in 2018 primaries, when Republicans failed to contest 6 seats (versus 1 this time).
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"If you simply don't count every time he overperformed, he actually isn't an overperformer"
Sherrod Brown has to be the most overrated electoral performer of all time
2006 literally doesn’t count for numerous reasons—not only was it pre-WWC realignment and in a D monsoon, it was 20 years ago
In 2012, the guy ran against Josh Mandel, a literal clown, and only outperformed Obama by 3 due to a right wing third party candidate taking votes away from Mandel
Then he ran against Jim Renacci (not sure if he’s even a real person) and underran the national environment in 2018, despite polls showing he’d win by 15-20. Ironic, as Mandel may have actually beat him had he stayed in the 2018 race.
Then in 2024, he lost by 4 to Bernie Moreno, who didn’t spend a dime until September. And while I like the guy and he is a great Senator, he arguably wasn’t the strongest candidate electorally and didn’t run the strongest campaign
So do people actually believe he’s the 60/40 favorite against well-funded incumbent Jon Husted? Lmao, good luck.
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This is true but not super important. A D 8 year would yield, yes, only an expected 31 "flips" (and many of those are thanks to redistricting), but also an expected 240 D House seats (more than they had after 2018). Less competitive seats, but that's mainly because Ds are starting from a higher floor.
In 2010, the Democrat lost 63 seats in the House of Representatives.
Today some estimates are that there are only 35 actual seats in the House that are genuinely competitive.
We had the 2022 normal redistricting following a the Census.
Now we've had a round of mid-decade redistricting that could take those districts and refine them down even more precisely with the help of new AI tools.
It does not matter nearly as much in 2026 that this year might be a 5 or 8 on the Congressional Preference polling.
There simply aren't the same number of districts subject to flipping in a mid-term was true in the pre-AI age of map-drawing.
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Jun 10
Putting aside that individual state primary composition usually does not have a ton of predictive value, this is actually extremely similar to the 2018 composition.
Jun 10
Not a great sign that Dems can’t outvote the GOP in Nevada primaries when they literally did so in Texas earlier this year.
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Okay but these aren't just "really bad lies aren't allowed." They're lies targeted to very specific people (fraud, defamation) or under oath. And all of them have robust First Amendment defenses. They're not really of the same category as criminalizing political lies because they're bad.
perjury, fraud, defamation, have rigorous civil and criminal penalties attached and yet we do not live in a dystopian Orwellian hellscape
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Welp, her performance in this last batch got even *more* lopsided. Ah well, nevertheless, just another thing this guy will never own up to being 100% wrong about.
Jun 7
How much do you want to bet that, once Raman overtakes Pratt in the official tally, the remaining ballots will stop being so lopsided in Raman support?
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Well, by definition, a Dem who wins in a red state has to get more R crossover votes than they lose as D crossover voters. Probably won't be as low as 83% voting for the R, but Turek winning ~95% of Ds while Hinson wins ~90% of Rs is basically what a D win would look like.
Jun 8
"Turek also leads with Independents and has more enthusiasm from his party, with 93% of Democrats saying they'll vote for him compared to 83% of Republicans for Hinson."
Tale as old as time: Rs lag Ds in supporting their nominee. That won't last.
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There's a kind of poll skepticism that is basically circular. "This poll showing an upset cannot be right because no way that candidate would do that well among [insert group]." Well yeah, that's the point of an upset, you have to have the candidate putting up surprising numbers with unusual groups!
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What is the evidence that Raman's margin is coming from homeless voters who had their ballots harvested? Is there even enough of a registered homeless population to account for her surge? PoliMath seems completely disinterested in actually trying to like, lay out this math.
Jun 8
I mostly agree with this with the following caveat:
It might not be legal fraud to grab 1,000 ballots, mark your favorite candidate, and have a homeless person sign it with a smiley face
But it is a moral fraud because you've just disenfranchised 1000 voters who actually care about their vote, care about the results, care about their city
If that is what is happening (which seems likely) then it calls into question the very nature of representative democracy. Why do we even have a vote if the vote result isn't determined by individuals but by NGOs who can harvest as many votes as they want using these strategies?
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What would be the mechanism for people to vote after election day, can you explain it step by step?
Jun 8
"the post-Election Day electorate"
There's the problem right there.
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Funnily enough this is the same dropoff between the Iowa Gubernatorial Primary and the Iowa Auditor Primary. Seems like Zach Lahn voters are up to no good.
Jun 7
If it's just young people voting late off of Knock-LA voter guide then explain the massive 12.5% voter drop off between the Mayoral election & the City Attorney races. Were they only following some recommendations en masse?
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The undervote for these same two positions in 2022 was 12.3%.
Jun 6
540,000 votes for city attorney of Los Angeles versus 617,000 for mayor so far.
77,000 Angelenos voted for mayor and then decided to leave their ballots blank for the citywide attorney position? That’s 12.5%.
12.5% of the ballots had a vote for mayor but not city attorney.
Ok. Totally not ballot stuffi
By rama
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Honestly, probably not. These large counties are important for Steyer, but he is *barely* hitting benchmarks and they make up about 67% of the vote. His needed numbers have almost doubled since election night.
Jun 6
This seems like a pretty massive overcorrection after Steyer hit good numbers in all other large counties
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This sounds like a lot, but this is an undervote percentage of only 4.5%. For reference, the undervote percentage between the GOP primary for governor and auditor in the Iowa primaries (held the same day) was 12%. Even between governor and Senate it was 2.5%. This is not large.
Jun 6
Massive number of undervotes for Attorney General versus Governor in California, even though the AG election is much more simple. Just pick the one prominent dude who matches your party.
So far, 300,000 people chose a Governor but not an Attorney General.
One wonders how many ballots were marked for Steyer and no one else.
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Fully Reporting retweeted
How is it possible to only count 6 votes when over 50 percent of the estimated votes are outstanding….?
Humboldt County 6/5 Drop
Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 3 (42.9%, 17.3%)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 2 (28.6%, 10.0%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 1 (14.3%, -13.0%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 0 (0.0%, -12.3%)
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Football stadiums are a difficult policy problem for urbanists. They host 8-9 games/year, so are clearly not a very good land use downtown compared to dense housing. But urbanists seem to like the vibes of them being downtown and right next to transit.
Jun 5
Indianapolis, the largest city in a state with a metro population of 2.2 million, gets just three trains per week, yet that same state is willing to spend $1 billion on a football stadium for 8 events a year.
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Another big question is how much have the redder suburbs and exurbs already run dry. A lot of his good numbers yesterday came from big drops in places like Redding and El Dorado. But those places might be nearly out of votes.
If the remaining California governor ballots look like yesterday’s returns, Hilton certainly holds off Steyer. If the Wed-to-Thurs shift continues linearly, Steyer likely passes him.
We expect something in between, which is why the race is tracking toward a very close finish.
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