American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
Joined February 2011
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27 Oct 2021
My new history of House elections since the 1960s, "The Long Red Thread," is now available. We published an excerpt today that hits on the key trends over the past half century in the House centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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Kyle Kondik retweeted
Jun 12
Trump Sets New World Record By Winning War With Iran 27 Times In One Year babylonbee.com/news/trump-se… via @TheBabylonBee
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Jun 12
Whatever comes out about him, the same principle applies - does a drop for Platner correspond with a rise for Collins? Seeing both would make me more confident on Collins’s chances
Jun 12
Isn’t it unwise to spend too much time on this before the real oppo on Platner drops?
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Jun 12
something to monitor as time goes by in Maine:
Platner's share may drop compared to previous polls, but does Collins also rise? If the former happens, but not the latter, maybe there is some sort of "shy Platner" effect
Diff kind of race, but VA-AG polling provides an example
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Kyle Kondik retweeted
Jun 11
Is Nevada's only Republican congressional district, never won by a Dem since it's 1981 creation, actually in play?
I have thoughts:
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Kyle Kondik retweeted
Jun 11
Craig pleaded guilty & kept it under wraps. Till someone called Roll Call during August recess & told them where to find court records.
To this day no one knows who called & provided @cspanJohn the amazing scoop.
Jun 11
On this day in 2007 --
U.S. Sen. Larry Craig was arrested for lewd conduct in a men's restroom at the Minneapolis–St. Paul International Airport
#WideStance #Jiminy!
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Jun 11
special elections were crucial in 2020, as @JMilesColeman reminded me yesterday (tho we didn't include the detail in today's piece) -- Ds flipped AZ & GA in 2020 specials following 2018 death of John McCain and 2019 resignation of Johnny Isakson for health reasons
Jun 11
Would be something if Rs lost the Senate b/c Trump's choice of Vance (who brought nothing to the ticket) created a special election that the Rs lose.
x.com/kkondik/status/2065021…
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Kyle Kondik retweeted
Jun 11
~52% of the 2025 mayoral Dem primary electorate in NY-12 was age 50 .
66-75% of the 2018/2020/2022 Dem primary electorates in NY-12 were age 50 .
If this poll is accurate, and the 2026 electorate is anywhere close to traditional midterm electorates, Lasher will be hard to beat.
AARP/Siena poll | 5/27-6/1 LV
US House 2026 | New York’s 12th congressional district Democratic primary (voters over 50 sampled)
🟦Micah Lasher 32%
🟦Alex Bores 21%
🟦George Conway 13%
🟦Jack Scholssberg 9%
Undecided 21%
Link to poll: aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/re…
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Kyle Kondik retweeted
Jun 11
Trump carried all three states three times. He won Ohio and Alaska by double digits in 2024; the tossup ratings have a lot to do with the deteriorating political environment for Republicans this year.
Jun 11
NEW Crystal Ball Senate Rating Changes
Alaska Leans R to Toss-up
NC Toss-up to Leans D
Ohio Leans R to Toss-up
GOP still favored because they only need one of the four Toss-ups, while Ds need all four
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Kyle Kondik retweeted
Jun 11
The narrow path for Ds to win the Senate will become more plausible if economic pessimism continues to grow.
Jun 11
NEW Crystal Ball Senate Rating Changes
Alaska Leans R to Toss-up
NC Toss-up to Leans D
Ohio Leans R to Toss-up
GOP still favored because they only need one of the four Toss-ups, while Ds need all four
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Kyle Kondik retweeted
NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball, and as reported first in @playbookdc this morning --
Three Senate Rating Changes:
Alaska Leans R to Toss-up
NC Toss-up to Leans D
Ohio Leans R to Toss-up
More from @kkondik & @JMilesColeman
centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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Kyle Kondik retweeted
New Larry Sabato Crystal Ball ratings for US Senate
Alaska: Leans Republican—> Toss up
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North Carolina: Toss-up—>Leans Democratic
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Ohio: Leans Republican—>Toss-up
Link to article: centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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Jun 11
NEW Crystal Ball Senate Rating Changes
Alaska Leans R to Toss-up
NC Toss-up to Leans D
Ohio Leans R to Toss-up
GOP still favored because they only need one of the four Toss-ups, while Ds need all four
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Jun 11
"The Race for the Majority is Not a Toss-up, But the Races That Will Decide It Are" -- today's piece in the Crystal Ball centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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Kyle Kondik retweeted
Jun 10
Do you feel like you don’t fit in as a ‘Democrat’ or a ‘Republican?’
Our new political typology shows this complexity, sorting the public into nine distinct groups based on their political and cultural values.
The result is a picture of American politics with far more than just red and blue.
ALT Chart of The 2026 Pew Research Center Political Typology.
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Kyle Kondik retweeted
Jun 10
“If Susan Collins were Ted Cruz, this would be a different conversation, but Susan Collins is the most moderate member of the Senate,” @BradOnMessage tells @llerer. “Susan Collins is the best cross-party-appeal candidate Republicans have fielded anywhere in the last 10 years.” nytimes.com/2026/06/10/us/po…
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Kyle Kondik retweeted
49% of voters believe that the voters do not choose representatives in Congress, but they are chosen by the people who design the Congressional district maps.
27% disagree.
Even D's and R's have similar opinions.
napolitannews.org/posts/49-p…
1,000 RV by @ScottWRasmussen
Jun 9
One of the ways to quantify how redistricting improved things for Rs in the House -- there are now 14 more districts where Trump got 55% or more, and just 1 more where he got 45% of less. That also hollowed out the middle Trump 46%-54% zone, reducing it from 85 to 70
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Kyle Kondik retweeted
Jun 10
WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrat Randy Villegas advances to the general election for U.S. House in California's 22nd Congressional District. #APRaceCall at 9:00 p.m. EDT. apnews.com/projects/election…
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