Chief Economist @EYnews, @EY_US, @EY_Parthenon. Previously Chief Economist @OxfordEconomics, @IHSMarkit. Father of 3. Husband of 1. 🇺🇸 & 🇧🇪. Views are mine
Joined September 2011
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Jun 11
🦅 More hawkish communication from the #Fed doesn't mean it will hike this year... nor do I believe it should...
📺 Great conversation about the underlying fundamentals of the economy with the @KellyCNBC & @JoeSquawk on @SquawkCNBC
cnbc.com/video/2026/06/11/no…
via @EY_Parthenon
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Jun 11
🇪🇺ECB raises key rates by 25bps
1️⃣ Middle East war generating inflation pressures
2️⃣ « Decision… is robust across a range of scenarios »
3️⃣ Inflation outlook revised up to 3% in ‘26
4️⃣ Core inflation at 2.5% on some pass through
5️⃣ Growth revised lower (0.8%) on income squeeze
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Jun 11
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Jun 11
THE GREATEST COMEBACK IN NBA PLAYOFF HISTORY.
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Gregory Daco retweeted
Jun 10
The Fed chairman will have the 2:30 pm press conference after next week's FOMC meeting.
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Jun 10
🇺🇸 #Inflation tops 4% on #oil shock
📈#CPI 0.6% m/m in May
✅Core 0.2%
🍲Food 0.2%
⛽️Energy 3.9%
✅Core gds -0.1%
🚗New -0.3%
🚘Used 0.1%
👕Apparel 0.3%
🟠Core svc 0.3%
🏘️Shelter 0.3%
🏡Rent 0.4%
🏠OER 0.3%
🏨Hotel 3.5%
🏥Med 0.5%
🛫Air 2.7%
📜Car insur -1.7%
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Jun 10
🇺🇸 #Inflation dynamics point to strong energy price pressure but contained passthrough (for now)
📊Headline CPI
🔺12-mo: 4.2%
🔺6-mo: 5.6%
🔺3-mo: 8.2%
📊Core CPI
🔺12-mo: 2.9%
🔺6-mo: 3.1%
🔺3mo: 3.2%
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Jun 9
⛔️Small businesses under pressure
🔻Job openings and hiring plans fell to the lowest levels in 6 years
🔻Plans to make capital outlays fell to lowest since 2009
⏩Tariffs, Middle East conflict & immigration
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Gregory Daco retweeted
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Jun 8
🇺🇸 @NewYorkFed inflation expectations fell slightly in May
➡️3.5%: 1-year-ahead (-0.1pt)
➡️3.1%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Encouraging anchoring of inflation expectations in medium-term
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Jun 8
⚠️ More and more households foresee a deterioration in the financial situation over the next year.
Household expecting to be "somewhat" to "much worse" off in a year:
🔺May 2026: 36%
🔺Jan 2026: 29.4%
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Jun 5
🌞Is it hiking season yet?
"Bond traders fully priced in a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by the end of this year after US job growth topped all forecasts in May"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Jun 5
🇺🇸May '26 #Jobsreport: Stabilizing
✅Payrolls 172k
✅Private 120k
✅Gds 28k
✅Services 92k
✅Gov 52k
✅Diffusion: 54%
✅Revisions Dec/Jan: 93k
✅#Unemployment 4.3% (flat)
🔶Part rate 61.8% (flat)
📉Wages
✅ 0.3% m/m
✅3.7% y/y ( 0.1pt)
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Jun 5
🔻Wage growth -0.2pt to 3.4% y/y
👀Wage growth falling further into the low 3% is not a positive development for households. Remember the labor market is NOT inflationary w/ unit labor costs up only 0.5% y/y.
🔻The real concern: the income squeeze
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Jun 5
The unemployment rate remains low at 4.3% in May.
This is certainly very encouraging, but we shouldn't forget that absent the notable decline in labor force participation of the past year (more than 0.6pt), the unemployment rate would be closer to 5%.
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