We provide commercial risk management services & advanced quantitative analytics for commodity hedgers inside of a leading investment bank (Hilltop Securities).
Joined April 2022
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Jun 10
Estimated spot gross packer margins remain deeply in the red. Seasonally margins rise after Father's Day and peak into July 4. The loin, chuck and round pirmals = 71% of the cutout value & are underperforming. Positive packing margins probably wont occur during 2026. #cattle
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Jun 10
November' 26 #soybean futures posted a seventh consecutive day of declines on June 8, the longest losing streak since June 2024. What a mess. The fundamentals and the technicals are bearish. The volatility structure which dominates the price action is just owned by the systems.
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Jun 10
Winter #wheat condition scores from the 6/8 crop progress report. Pretty obvious distinction between HRW and SRW. We see HRW production at 505 mbu and SRW at 320 mbu (Bloomberg users can see our price forecasts at CPFC<GO>) in NASS's Crop Production report Thursday.
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The choice cutout is struggling headed into Father's Day, the last of the big demand period of summer. The loin primal is below 2025. The chuck and round are moving sideways in a counter seasonal trend. These primals = 71% of the cutout value. Bearish packing margins #cattle
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US urea prices returned to pre-war levels. A major positive input for US #corn producers. Landed urea prices in Brazil, ARGY, AUS are key. Risks remain but lower prices are a positive for global row crop production and suppress some of the global food shock narrative
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US #soybeans rated VP/P......Week #2 and the broad US crop is relatively in good health and stable. Indiana and SD are the current yield drags. Ample moisture is forecast this week will be beneficial.
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US #corn rated VP/P......Week #2 and the broad US crop is relatively in good health and stable. Widespread replanting in Indiana and a lack of moisture in SD are yield drags. Ample moisture is forecast for the "I" states, Kansas and Minnesota this week will be beneficial.
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France is experiencing a heat wave. It's summer time, and it's supposed to be hot!!! The #wheat is fine. A little bit of late season heat never hurts wheat...above trend temps can create a yield drag but not a major supply shock.
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