Israeli post-7/10 liberal. Demography enjoyer.

Joined November 2020
566 Photos and videos
There has been a lot of talk in recent years about emigration from Israel, as well as Jewish immigration *to* Israel. But the discourse often bears only tenuous links to reality. I wrote an opinionated article to discuss the trends, and drew attention to a few issues that are rarely talked about. Link and discussion below. /1
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Rafi DeMogge רפי דמוג retweeted
It's been a week since the IDF reported any casualties despite the fact even Hezbollah admits the IDF is advancing through Lebanon. At the same time, Hezbollah started attacking Israel with "stupid" missiles again, instead of FPV drones. What do you think this means?
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Yeah, totally happening too. Definitely, Trump is going to agree to that. Araghchi said so! Orange man has no choice! Be afraid, be very afraid!
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: Fees will be charged for services in the Strait of Hormuz, and these services will no longer be free. This important matter has been confirmed: payment of fees is required.
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Yeah this is definitely happening. It’s so happening.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that ending the war under the memorandum of understanding also means the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Southern Lebanon. “We have stated this clearly,” Araghchi said.
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Yup.
My very cold take: it’s going to go on like this for a while. No deal, no war. Lots of talks (or talk of talks), occasional strikes (and lots of bluster about bigger strikes). Repeat as needed.
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בשורות טובות אם המשטרה תקבל הוראות לפזר אותם עם גז מדמיע, גם להם לא תהיה בחירה.
משה קראדי, לשעבר מפכ"ל המשטרה: "למפגינים בקפלן שחוסמים כבישים יש בחירה חופשית, לחרדים שחוסמים אין - זו הוראה של הרבנים שלהם" #בוקר_טוב_ישראל | @Sykocan
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Rafi DeMogge רפי דמוג retweeted
Replying to @medbazongas
Trump is very unhappy with Iran again
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People shouldn’t waste their time trying to analyze these leaks. The leaks always come out in the morning (Israel time), when America sleeps. Then Trump wakes up and angrily rebuffs them. How many times do we need to repeat this dumb game? I guess that eventually, there will be some kind of a deal, but it’s pointless to jump on these leaks the 739th time. For my part, I basically stopped following the news about Iran. My default assumption is that we’ll have more of the same for many more weeks, perhaps months. If there’s really a deal, I’ll know it. If the war renews, I’ll know that too. Go grab a drink. Bake a cake. Play with your kids. Or watch the World Cup if it’s your thing. Don’t obsess about these leaks, it’s mostly jockeying, narrative creation, click baits and market manipulation.
Trump is furious with Iran, stating: “The details of the agreement that Iran leaked are fake news and have no connection to the terms agreed upon in writing. Incredible! In addition, their drone attack last night against Indian ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz is completely unacceptable. They’d better get their act together, and fast!”
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אחרי ליברמן הימני וליברמן החילוניסטי, תתכוננו כי כבר בדרך ההתגלמות השלישית שלו: ליברמן הממלכתואיד.
חיה ותן לחיות! אשתי אלה ואני נשואים כבר מעל ארבעה עשורים❤ היא דתייה ואני חילוני. היא שומרת שבת, ואני שומר על מסורת טניס עם חברים בשבת. בערבי שישי אנו נוהגים לעשות קידוש ולקרוא את פרשת השבוע. אנחנו חיים ביישוב נוקדים, המאכלס חרדים, דתיים וחילונים, שמתקיימים זה לצד זה בהרמוניה וכבוד הדדי. זה החזון שלי למדינת ישראל כולה: מדינה שבה איש ואישה באמונתם יחיו. לא על בסיס כפייה ופוליטיקה צרה, אלא מתוך סובלנות, ערבות הדדית, ושותפות גורל🇮🇱 שבת שלום🙏
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גם בישראל וגם באיטליה, העורף סובל מהפנאטיות האיסלמית.
🚨#BREAKING: A 44-year-old woman has been decapıtated by an African migrant 📍Scandicci, Italy
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Rafi DeMogge רפי דמוג retweeted
Generation Z has the lowest levels of interpersonal trust of any generation we've ever polled. And although the data is time limited, the velocity of their decline in trust already far exceeds any previous generation.
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What did we learn about party mergers? I know, I know, you don't need to tell me: nothing at all.
The graph that tells the whole story: Before the union, Bennett had 20 seats and Lapid had 8. Now Yesh Atid has been almost completely erased. Together they have 20, and Eisenkot is gaining at their expense—about one seat a week, like clockwork.
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השמאל שכח מה זה להיות שמאלן ב8/10.
המגמה ברורה. העדר שצופה בערוץ 12 נוהה אחרי משיח השמאל החדש. לאיזנקוט. חשבתי הם עברו לבנט כי התפקחו אחרי ה7/10. מסתבר שזו הייתה חנייה זמנית. zman.co.il/694078/
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This is a great example of the sort of thing that might cause a significant Aliyah wave from a Western country; not the superficially impressive 100% spike from the UK that just means 800 olim/year instead of 400, but the kind of thing that could easily cause several thousands to move every year. There’s a qualitative difference between everyday antisemitism and outlawing organized Jewish life. Needless to say, this kind of legislation is extremely unlikely to pass, not least because it would also affect Muslims.
EXCL: The Green party is considering a new policy to ban circumcision, The Spectator can reveal. The party’s Health Policy Working Group (HPWG) has launched a consultation seeking views on whether parents should only be allowed to consent ‘to an irreversible surgical procedure on a child if that procedure is medically necessary’. Circumcision is an integral part of Judaism, with Jewish boys traditionally undergoing a ‘brit milah’ on the eighth day after birth. Interestingly, the consultation on outlawing the practice was publicised specifically in a ‘Greens for Palestine’ WhatsApp group.
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The funny thing is that if the US strategy is to put pressure on Iran by ramping up attacks, but still aims to prevent a return to all-out war, then in retrospect Israel helped by retaliating against the Iranian missile launch a few days ago (going against Trump). That retaliation makes it less likely that Iran will include Israel in these daily exchanges of fire, which in turn will decrease the probability of a return to all-out war.
A day after his Secretary of War said "we're not in the business of revealing what we're gonna do or not gonna do," Trump declares that the US will attack Iran again tonight and will soon take Kharg Island.
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Rafi DeMogge רפי דמוג retweeted
האיראנים השאירו אותנו מחוץ לתמונה הלילה ובכך קבעו משוואה חדשה, נוראית עבורנו, אבדה ההרתעה לחלוטין. במקום להתעורר לצלילי הנחיות פיקוד העורף אני נאלצים להשכים לעוד יום עבודה שוחק ומתיש שבו התחושות "אתם לא מענינים" ו"תמותו בשגרה שלכם" לא מרפות.
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מדריך קצר לכל מפלגה חדשה בכל מערכת בחירות, תמיד.
Replying to @VerminusM
But we know the answer to these questions too. On social issues, he leans liberal but isn't gung-go about the most recent progressive trends. On labor relations, he's solidly left-wing; he will do absolutely nothing about the tycoons, monopolies, the histadrut etc. He's left-wing on the economy. Green bullshit: almost nobody cares about this in Israel, and Eisenkot isn't one of the exceptions. Look, most newcomers to Israeli politics don't need to say anything for their views to be obvious, because most of them don't have any independent opinion about anything, and their tribal belonging settles where they stand on everything. Anyone who is vague and doesn't explicitly and unambiguously mark himself as right-wing, is center-left. Right-wing with adjectives ("statemanslike", "center-", "moderate", "not Bibist but", "economic", "sober" right): center-left with more than the usual amount of patriotic mumbo-jumbo. If it's an ex-general, then it's center-left with socialist views, chummy with oligarchs, perfectly happy with Haredi parties, unwilling to rock the boat about anything. If it's not an ex-general but some media personality, academic, or an embittered Likud prince, then it's center-left with free market capitalist views, usually with a more militantly secular agenda. If all Israelis knew these rules (I didn't make them!), there would be far fewer disappointments after every election cycle.
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If you want a picture of the future, imagine billions of mediocre but extremely driven masters students, simultaneously trying to impress their advisors. Forever.
You have noticed it. ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer. The internet itself feels like it is shrinking. Every article reads the same. Every email sounds the same. Every answer sounds like it was written by the same voice. You thought it was you. It is not you. Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge published a paper in Nature proving what is happening. They call it Model Collapse. Here is the mechanism in one sentence. AI trained on AI-generated data gets dumber every generation until it forgets what real human data looked like. The internet is filling with AI-generated content. Blog posts. Articles. Reviews. Comments. Social media. AI companies scrape the internet to train the next generation of models. Which means the next generation of AI is being trained on the output of the current generation. Each cycle loses information. Not randomly. It loses the rarest, most unusual, most creative parts first. The researchers call these the "tails of the distribution." The weird ideas. The unexpected perspectives. The things that made the internet feel human. Those disappear first. What remains is the average. The safe. The expected. The bland. Then the next generation trains on that. And loses more. And the next generation trains on that. And loses more. The researchers proved this is not a slow decline. Major degradation happens within just a few iterations. Even when some of the original human data is preserved. They tested it on large language models. On image generators. On statistical models. The pattern was the same every time. The output converges toward a narrow, flattened version of reality that looks nothing like the original data. The lead researcher put it plainly. "Large language models are like fire. A useful tool. But one that pollutes the environment." The pollution is invisible. You cannot see which sentence on the internet was written by a human and which was written by AI. Neither can the AI that is about to train on it. And once the tails are gone, they do not come back. The damage is irreversible. This is not a prediction anymore. It is a diagnosis. The internet you grew up on was built by humans writing things no algorithm would have written. Strange, personal, imperfect, alive. That internet is being diluted. One generation of AI at a time. And the models trained on what remains are learning a smaller and smaller version of the world. Model Collapse is not a technical problem. It is a cultural one. The thing that made the internet worth reading is the thing that disappears first.
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Rafi DeMogge רפי דמוג retweeted
You have noticed it. ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer. The internet itself feels like it is shrinking. Every article reads the same. Every email sounds the same. Every answer sounds like it was written by the same voice. You thought it was you. It is not you. Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge published a paper in Nature proving what is happening. They call it Model Collapse. Here is the mechanism in one sentence. AI trained on AI-generated data gets dumber every generation until it forgets what real human data looked like. The internet is filling with AI-generated content. Blog posts. Articles. Reviews. Comments. Social media. AI companies scrape the internet to train the next generation of models. Which means the next generation of AI is being trained on the output of the current generation. Each cycle loses information. Not randomly. It loses the rarest, most unusual, most creative parts first. The researchers call these the "tails of the distribution." The weird ideas. The unexpected perspectives. The things that made the internet feel human. Those disappear first. What remains is the average. The safe. The expected. The bland. Then the next generation trains on that. And loses more. And the next generation trains on that. And loses more. The researchers proved this is not a slow decline. Major degradation happens within just a few iterations. Even when some of the original human data is preserved. They tested it on large language models. On image generators. On statistical models. The pattern was the same every time. The output converges toward a narrow, flattened version of reality that looks nothing like the original data. The lead researcher put it plainly. "Large language models are like fire. A useful tool. But one that pollutes the environment." The pollution is invisible. You cannot see which sentence on the internet was written by a human and which was written by AI. Neither can the AI that is about to train on it. And once the tails are gone, they do not come back. The damage is irreversible. This is not a prediction anymore. It is a diagnosis. The internet you grew up on was built by humans writing things no algorithm would have written. Strange, personal, imperfect, alive. That internet is being diluted. One generation of AI at a time. And the models trained on what remains are learning a smaller and smaller version of the world. Model Collapse is not a technical problem. It is a cultural one. The thing that made the internet worth reading is the thing that disappears first.
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UPDATE: not correct but still funny so I left it. I’m probably the last one to have thought of this, but it just occurred to me that Iran’s Shaheed drone got its name because it’s a *suicide* drone. A shaheed (martyr, like a suicide bomber), got it? It’s kind of funny that everyone just shrugs off the name, imagine Israel developing a new tank or whatever and calling it “kivshan” (incinerator) or simply “horeg” (killer).
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