Find myself wanting to get back into "Do" mode... Have spent some time lately working mental models, likely neither right nor wrong
But I do continue to wonder why everyone has had certain opinions about XYZ while reality is the only basis for proper decision making
When you look at "3bew" gaming so to speak everyone has something different to say
- Gamers want to own their asset (Implied Truth)
Reality: Gamers don't care. CSGO allows for marketplace trading. Runescape, EveOnline, World of Warcraft there has always been a market even though black-market it has worked for decades. Even more is one your game fails what assets do players actually own? Zero. You are here to fulfill a role/job in a market for a set time. Maybe you are able to build something game changer and give devs/gamers a place to operate for 10 years or 100 years, much depends on timing, place, team and lots of luck
- Gamers care about Innovation (Implied Truth)
Reality: Most don't. Look at the highest grossing games ever, many of them are simple games done really well. Or even look at Windrose and Assassins Creed (People like pirate games done well) and even demo pushing 100K players. The math is in, re-inventing the wheel can be cool but if it comes at the user experience it is no longer a tool but friction that kills you. We live in an era where velocity^motion=results. This is true for good and bad
- If you build it... They will come (Implied Truth)
Reality: Nobody is coming... I don't think people really played the #'s game on what it looks like for a platform to become self-sustained. Let alone for developers to build and become profitable. Or switch from current markets where they can earn into new markets that have 0 proven records. This one could be talked about for days. If implied future rewards don't outweigh current market then you 0 future market. Mathematics at play here much more than you think, run some models
- Dev teams served a need (Implied Truth)
- Reality: Most teams actually served 0% necessity in the market. They came around during a time that allowed for "Implied Truth" to create an ego driven bias on what the market wanted. To only be proven year after year that the market wasn't there... Most people call this "Insanity" doing the same thing over and over expecting the same results
- Raising more $$$ will solve our problem (Implied Truth)
Reality: You could have $100 Million and you will still fail. You aren't solving a need or creating something of merit. Roblox started with 1,500 paid users at a conversion of $1 per user. I wouldn't be surprised if even today you could get similar or much cheaper if we are talking (Click my link > enter game > check it out > User decides if juice is worth the squeeze). More $$$ is almost always the blinding light. You think you have time which you don't. You think you can continue to iterate and you can't. You think eventually you'll solve the problem which you won't. Having more money blinds you from seeing the forest from the trees. What is your goal, how do you get there. Do it fast, do it cheap, you know quickly if your product is something viable or not (Balance Sheet./Cash Flow) never lies, you just simply choose to look away
- Cough Cough "3bew" is a market (Implied Truth)
- Reality: Your subset is based almost entirely on humans who are over the age of 25 . So where is your market? Who are you building for? All of this knowing that most of these will return to old games because Nostalgia is where they live, not in the new remakes of old games. Make Runescape 2.0 (You'll just play the original). Make XYZ 2.0 and likely you just return to the old version. It's the same reality with that toxic couple you hate... Why do you keep going back to so and so knowing they are bad for you, well something familiar is nice... Until it's not. Reality is you never created a product for real consumers. Middle-aged people working jobs are a hard market to sell to. Life happens, Rent is due, Insurance needs paid, 40 hours and 10 hours of travel and millions of other stressors arise. Thinking a tiny cult of JPEG lovers will be your market isn't laughable it's a lie to whoever you pitched it to... Insanity once again
- Fun Tokens will = Success (Implied Truth)
- Reality: All your so called fun tokens which should have paved the future are worthless. How could they be used in current landscapes and what value do they bring. What wrapper created value when you have no actual users or revenue or demand. Smoke n Mirrors is the most vial way to run a business yet it became the norm. I could talk about this for days (I'll continue to say they are a tool until they aren't). People continue to complicate where they fit and why they fit. Greed and Hubris from humans does the most damage here.
- Legally it will work (Implied Truth)
- Reality: Too much happened to make it work. The juice was never worth the squeeze trying to manage different countries, different people and much more. It becomes even a larger problem when you don't know the rules to the game. How can you win? That's like playing basketball and once you dribble you get called for a hand ball because you are really playing Soccer. And all of this is happening while you are still building, spending $$$, trying to find fit and 100 other things. Blind leading the blind. Hard way to build the Roman Empire
- My stuff don't stink (Implied Truth)
Reality: You are the first user and the 1 millionth user. Your ability to have a base of gamers/fans is the only thing that will keep you in this game. Being blind to the friction, walls, hatred, lack of excitement, humans, mental burn, current incumbents and many more is a recipe. And you know where it ends. No different in any space of business
I have so many thoughts. I likely won't share them all until/if I decide to run it back with one last attempt. I think the model in itself is just broken > Years ago the idea was pitched and money poured in but as always (Nothing was based in Reality, it was based in Ego)...
Where the space goes I don't know. I think for sake of talk I'd like one more stab. Maybe it happens or maybe it doesn't. Many lessons learned amongst the ashes/rubble but reality is I didn't have say which I know better
I do think it can be done. I've got a couple pre-mapped destinies I'm working on if the stars align. Things would look different though to the predecessors which is perfect in my eyes.