🇺🇦 As predicted, Ukrainian media and Western outlets are blaming Russia for the fire at the Pechersk Lavra. Here's what the evidence actually shows. Aerial photographs published by Ukrainian media show no debris field around the cathedral — a telltale sign of a direct explosive impact. The roof burned. The walls and golden domes remain standing. That is not what a precision strike looks like. The Russian MoD has now confirmed what the footage already suggested: a US-made Patriot air defence missile struck the Lavra. The ministry also noted that Western countries have been supplying Kiev with missiles past their expiration dates — a possible factor in the malfunction. Expect the comment section to be flooded with angry Ukraine supporters. But we'll address them in the next post.

Trump indicates no rush to remove nuclear material from Iran, noting it could happen later - WSJ

The GOP is running a larger federal deficit than the pandemic year when we printed $7 trillion It’s no surprise that stocks are up The currency is fake

Oh, to be a fly on the wall at next week's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting: • A new Chair running his first meeting. • The previous Chair sitting right alongside him at the table (very, very unusual). • A divided committee going into the meeting. • A complex macro landscape. And all this in a central bank in deep need of reform and modernization. #economy #federalreserve #markets

For Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea, the alliance with the United States cannot be replaced: There is no Plan B. foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/11…

I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.

War Update: The Peace Talks, and How the U.S. is Driving Wedges Between China, Russia, & Iran Rod D. Martin and Kevin Hogan go in-depth on the state of the talks, the public "leaks", how Trump's Kharg Island threat moved the needle, and the wedges being driven between the BRICS nations.

Iran’s military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), denied that Iran would sign an agreement with the United States on Sunday and criticized President Donald Trump’s “unusual insistence” on signing the agreement that day. The IRGC described the timeline as a “test for Iran’s negotiating team” and that Trump’s announcement comes “despite Iranian negotiators explicitly stating that the memorandum has not yet been finalized and that signing on Sunday is definitely not happening.” cnn.com/2026/06/13/world/liv…

Some thought: 1) The Anthropic fiascos is a self-inflicted wound and likely a payback. 2) I spent the night helping many clients off of Anthropic and moving to local open source models and many very large clients will NEVER go back. This has absolutely advantaged open source model from China. 3) This situation NO MATTER WHAT permanently damaged the Anthropic IPO. 4) At 3AM last night I helped a client team move a massive account off of all Anthropic products. This was worth millions of dollars per month and this was the last straw. 5) The fall of Anthropic should not be applauded by anyone. The fall of the company should be viewed as an injury to All US AI COMPANIES. 6) The Anthropic fiasco is not a technical issue, it is a LEADERSHIP issue. If it is not fixed the company is cooked. 7) By the time we end this summer no matter how good Anthropic is, they lose customers, they lose key employees and they ultimately will lose the race. It was a sad day on top of a massively great day with the SpaceX IPO and one reason I did not post last night. Dario asked to be regulated, begged to be regulated and yelled to be regulated… NOW HE IS REGULATED. You like it now Dario?

Even if the twin sieges are lifted with the MOU, they may slap back on. Bc it is so difficult to reach a decision in the war of the sieges, we may see the MOU bc a longterm framework for Hormuz with or without a nuclear deal. It is also looking like the separate peace I have been suspecting. In this scenario, Israel reserves the right to attack Beirut, Iran reserves the right to retaliate on Israel without eliciting a direct US response and with Hormuz open. Some mechanism must be found to get around Israel’s veto: all it needs to do to scuttle the deal is attack Beirut. The separate peace gets around this by removing it as a causa belli for both parties. In this way you get an MOU and armistice despite the Israeli veto. In fact, it is really hard to see the US controlling Israel enough to get an MOU and Hormuz open any other way.

CEO of Anthropic Dario Amodei awkwardly smiles through his answer to a question about why Claude AI directly contributed to the US Military bombing of the elementary school in Minab.

🇦🇪🇮🇷 UAE is unlocking $10 billion for Iran, with the first $3 billion already delivered and potentially up to $20 billion total. In exchange: Iran halts attacks and ramps up economic intelligence cooperation. The Gulf Arabs are straight-up paying Iran to calm down. This is classic Middle East “peace”: suitcases of cash to buy quiet. Whether Iran actually stays bought is the real question. Source: Reuters via @clashreport / Writer: Oliver

Well, here's some math. Starlink is a profitable business with about $11 billion of sales and $3 billion of free cash flow. It might be worth $75 billion at a frisky multiple of 25X free cash flow. The balance----the space launch business and the AI/data centers in space fantasy----has $7 billion of sales and NEGATIVE -$17 billion of free cash flow. So why is it worth anything, unless you are pricing a dream peddled by sell-side hucksters?! In short, after trading up to $2 trillion based on $75 billion of tangible Starlink value, where's the remaining $1.925 trillion of it? This isn't just the classical mania of the crowds. This is sui generis--- mass insanity in a casino that has been giving a lobotomy by three decades of money-printing madness at the Fed and its fellow-traveling central banks around the planet.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's @MehrnewsCom out with details of "the 14-point draft" of the MOU, as per "a source close to the Iranian negotiating team:" ▪️Permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon. ▪️America's commitment to non-interference in Iran's internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. ▪️Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days ▪️America's commitment to withdrawing its forces from around Iran ▪️Reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days with Iranian arrangements ▪️Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products and derivatives and full access for Iran to its financial resources. ▪️The need for the United States and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion. ▪️60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of primary, secondary, US sanctions and resolutions of the UN Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency ▪️Reiterating Iran's commitment in the NPT not to produce nuclear weapons ▪️During the negotiations, the United States has committed not to increase its forces in the region and will not impose new sanctions. ▪️Release $24 billion in blocked Iranian funds during the 60-day period of final negotiations. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before the negotiations begin. ▪️Establishing a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement. ▪️The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council resolution. ▪️The final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran's frozen funds, the suspension of Iran's oil sanctions, and the lifting of the naval blockade. The final agreement will be made solely on the fate of enriched materials and enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and the Iranian economic reconstruction program. Discussions about Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda. "As the Foreign Ministry spokesperson announced, this text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran."

CNN montage of all the times Trump announced deals with Iran. Anderson Cooper: Today marks 39 times that he has said something like that.