$OIH $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL I think we're getting closer & closer to the offshore drilling event horizon. That's 16 rigs removed from global marketable fleet in last year (see post below). If I were an operator I'd be feeling a lot more uneasy about securing required drilling rigs in next few years if the increased demand scenario comes to pass... (P.S. No idea how $RIG stock will react short term.)

There is a spectrum that runs from pure carnivore to pure herbivore, and the only honest question is where humans land on it. At one end sits the obligate carnivore. The domestic cat. It cannot make certain nutrients itself and will go blind and die without meat. No flexibility, no debate, no salad days. Next, the facultative carnivore. The dog, descended from the wolf. Built to run on meat, equipped to scrape by on scraps when meat is short. It thrives on animal food and merely survives on the rest. Then the true omnivore. The bear, the pig, the raccoon. Equipped for both, with the gut and the chemistry to swing between a forest of berries and a stream of fish and do well on either. Then the herbivore. The cow, the horse, the gorilla. A vast fermenting system for turning leaves into life, and little interest in anything else. Now place the human. Stomach acid like a scavenger. A gut too short to ferment bulk plants. A hard requirement for vitamin B12, which only animals supply. A brain that demands animal fat to build itself. We tolerate plants. We are optimised for animals. Place us on that line and we land beside the dog. Built for meat, getting by on the rest, looking faintly embarrassed about the company.

It would have been unthinkable a year ago that everyone in the region would wind up secretly paying Iran tribute like it's a neo-Achaemenid empire armed with MRBMs

Retail proxy for front month WTI with roll. Chest thump warranted on a -17% drawdown after a near double? Oh one more thing -- the short interest on this $1 bn ETF is 145% of units outstanding. 145%. So retail is absurdly net short through an ETF that was meant to give retail long exposure to the front month future. Glad retail could join institutions on that side of the boat. I don't like "contentious" trades (I prefer "invisible", like nickel in November), but I do like to know that a lot of people are going to be wrong in a consensus position that the market is not really confirming. The chest thump makes me wanna add a Cheer Hedge on top (cheer hedge = @donnelly_brent creation).

Every single accredited or institutional investor I’ve talked to this week looks like I’m a wing nut when I mention that the globe is (literally and physically) running out of oil supplies People don’t give a shit unless it impacts them directly, that got further reinforced post 2020 in this ‘hyper-selfish’ era

Tank bottoms. I am the bag holder with you then. I am adding here. Let me say this again we are still drawing 5-6mb/d and the market is still missing 10mb/d of oil.

The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care. Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable. VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion. Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change

Trump jawboning, updated for today's episode

This was the 39th time since March 23 that @POTUS announced a peace deal with Iran had been reached or was imminent. And the 39th time Iran refuted Trump's claims as false within hours. Don't believe me? The data are below. No deal has been reached. Iran made than clear. Again.

This is genuinely such a disaster. I just don't get how this is what we're doing: manipulating oil futures to create an illusion of calm until oil stocks literally run out and we get the global economic version of losing consciousness from blood loss.

The label reading evolution: Week 1: "I'll cut sunflower oil from the cupboard. Done." Week 2: "Why is rapeseed oil in the bread." Week 3: "Why is sunflower oil in the hummus." Week 4: "Why is canola oil in the pesto." Week 6: "The shop is now taking ninety minutes." Week 8: "There's seed oil in the tinned tomatoes." Week 10: "The 'olive oil mayonnaise' is 96% rapeseed." Week 14: "Asking waiters what they fry the chips in. Nobody knows." Week 18: "Bringing a small bottle of tallow to dinner parties." Week 22: "Rendering my own dripping on a Sunday." Week 26: "Pricing up half a cow and a chest freezer." Week 30: "Considering whether the garden could support a heifer." Week 36: "Naming the heifer." The descent into paranoia is just pattern recognition arriving in real time.

good thing prices don't serve any useful purpose or this whole perpetual Trump oil jawbone thing might be problematic

1.) Axios: Iran has potentially in theory contemplated the idea of considering the concept of engaging with the plan on agreeing to the framework for engaging in negotiations(maybe). 2.) Iran: No we haven't. 3.) Oil down -5%

‼️ My interpretation: Iran delivered multiple severely damaging strikes last night against US bases in the region. Trump's initial impulse was to escalate even further ... but the Pentagon refused because they are afraid. And therefore Trump had to concoct a new TACO lie.

What is there to even say at this point

Further to this, during the Epping protest, the protesters attempted to block the migrant hotel using the court system. They had some initial success, but this was quickly overturned by a judge whose explicit reasoning was essentially "Damn what the law says, the government has a positive interest in housing migrants, which overrides whatever concerns locals may have." Voting didn't work, petitions didn't work, protests didn't work, and the courts didn't work. These peaceful avenues were patiently pursued for decades, and despite being very successful - elections won, legal challenges won, petitions and rallies with massive turnouts - the regime stymied them at every turn. So now they get war.

‼️ My interpretation of this morning's unhinged-POTUS meltdown post is that the Iranians must have done some serious damage to US assets in last night's missile strikes. This is a scenario where blundering hubris can easily escalate to major disaster.

I know I have seen this movie before. *Massive equity and debt raising. *Parabolic capex growth. *Falling price of a commodity. *Governments painting it as a national security issue. *Corporate governance issues with founder/CEOs going public with a growth at all cost mindset and incentive packages with little regard for shareholders' interest. Hmmmm

Please don't lie on Twitter. Your scheme forces adults to provide ID to get on social media to prove they're not children. You're using kids as an excuse to track adults. And we remember you supported seizing bank accounts during the trucker convoy: theglobeandmail.com/opinion/…

The only other time I saw this close to this level was 2015 when gold bottomed at $1,050 per ounce down from $1,700 in 2011. Gold stocks are up 600% from that time frame. If you think you missed the gold and silver stock move last year you are getting a do over.