Semiconductors would like a word. Never get too cute. Ego investment is a death kneel in markets. Pivot fluidly and with grace. It’s ok to be wrong. 1) semis new ATH 2) SPY weekly back above 680 (pending today’s close) 3) SPY weekly above the 61.8% of the ATH to interim low (pending today’s close) These 3 put a massive dent in the bearish thesis.

$MRVL Volume blowout into the highs. Extended and rich valuation. Caution warranted. Gap fill and/or $200 level undercut seem likely at some point.

$AMD Over for now imo - vulnerable to a 30% decline

Semis are cooked until q4 imo. 4-6 months of sideways from here. Volume blowout into negative divergence with 3 drives up - textbook topping action. $SOXX $SMH $MU $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $INTC $MRVL

Run this through your LLM if you want to see what likely happens next in markets. -VIX intraday spike at least 35% -VIX closes up at least 25% -SMH at least 20M volume -SMH down at least 7% -today is Friday -SPY 3rd lower low (intraday not closing basis) Run studies with all of these parameters in varying combinations to determine best study for giving positive forward returns and determine likely max drawdown and day of final low within a 2 month window. Cite number of occurrences for each study produced, give a forward returns table with % positive at each interval, show max drawdown and day of final low. Use at least 2 parameters per study. Produce 12 studies. Minimum sample size is 4. $spy

$CORZ and $BTDR will finalize deals and announce during the June/July timeframe. $IREN will announce their deal in August. Thank me later.

$AVGO 400 BTD thank me later

$AVGO 20d MA bear market coming in hot for $SPY thurs/fri

Market probably runs to SPX 8000 level through July. Then the choppy midterm year correction Aug-Oct. They’ll say it has topped for good and the bubble has burst and the AI CAPEX trade is dead. Then we continue in the 15 month presidential election cycle sweet spot from Oct until q4 2027 or so for a 30 % index level gain. SPX 10k. MARK IT. $SPY $SPX

Moral of the story you’re probably best buying 1st half of June weakness as the month probably closes

When BTC 57-58k?

If $NVDA and $AVGO make a move I think $SPY can head towards 808 through July before a seasonal correction Aug-Oct. $MSFT and $AMZN also showing weekly coils. More bear tears imminent.

$NVDA to 300 still in the cards #paytience

Signal

Pitch perfect technical confluence and the reaction did not disappoint.

I told you to get PCB exposure before the herd

Still funny and still true. It seems like NVDA/AVGO are poised to make moves into the June and July months.

$IREN Working on the “final boss” level of 63. So far zero weekly/monthly closes above this level. Confirm on Friday and the stock is headed to 100 . Also monthly bar volume is highest ever. Call flow very supportive all month with big players scooping up size. Textbook setup for strong continuation. Long.

Once you exceed 620k in yearly income in CA your combined FED/state tax rate jumps to 53% (if from short term capital gains) FIFTY THREE FUCKING PERCENT Some days I love this state and other days not so much…