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BREAKING: Iran accepting the ceasefire was reportedly driven by a "last-minute intervention by China"

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Who pays the tariffs, friend? You think I do.... my country? Or.... Mrs. Johnson in Oregon who wants to buy a French cheese - or Italian Wine? Or the US importer of the French cheese or Italian Wine to Oregon? Who pays the tariff....? So happy that Tariffs makes the US happy. We call it domestic tax. But it hurts the poorest people in the US. All the best!

Since the beginning of February, we have observed a strong bearish move accompanied by a rapid rebound in Network Growth. This spike in Network Growth serves as a signal for an imminent transition into a specific stage of the $BTC cycle—which by extension affects the entire crypto ecosystem: the (5) Bull Trap phase. While this stage is historically characterized by diminishing long-term structural strength, it often presents a window for market volatility to favor a final upward impulse before transitioning into the next phase: (6) Total Capitulation. To identify the shift from (4) Disenchantment to (5) Bull Trap, the data requires a sharp recovery in Network Growth, as recently witnessed. This must be followed by a significant reduction in the Risk Index toward "Minimum Risk" levels, which would establish the theoretical foundation required for a sustained upward movement. Currently, the Risk Index remains in the "Extreme Risk" zone (100); therefore, current market conditions do not yet reflect the technical alignment typically seen before a trend reversal.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 5. Extreme Fear Current price: $67,334

張忠謀的告別信 我已經九十四歲了，這些年，身體的訊號越來越清楚地告訴我--時間 不多了。五年內，我做了三次心臟手術。糖尿病讓我學會節制，也讓我明白：人能留下的，不是財富，而是選擇。 過去十年，我看著家裡的人在規劃未來，在他們的未來裡，我已經不在了， 但他們很富有。我不怪他們，只是明白--金錢，從來不能代替信念。 所以，當我離開這個世界時，我不會留下任何股份，一股也不留。 台積電將繼續上市運行，但我的股份將按照我設計的系統分配： 70% 給那些與我並肩二十年以上、用雙手打造這家公司的工程師與同仁。 剩下的 30%，將全數捐給慈善與教育基金， 支持台灣下一代的科技夢。 我的家人，不需要股份。他們各自有自己的天地--妻子投身慈善，女兒在金融界努力， 親人們各自在不同的路上前行。而他們真正得到的，是我一生的收藏：三千多本工程學與科技原典、我收藏的中國書法和繪畫--約150件著名大師的作品。以及一本書：我留給台灣的最後禮物： 我的自傳，不是關於成功的故事，而是關於「責任」與「選擇」的記錄。為這片土地再做一次貢獻。願每位仍在努力的台灣人，都能在這本書裡，看見屬於自己的信念。

Not seeing any real selling into the close on a Friday for the first time in a long time

Trump: thrilled to sign appropriations act to fund the government and reopen it

Are you ready for this conversation?

Tomorrow (Feb 4th) is the official starting point of spring and it also marks the starting point of year of fire.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.6 !!!!! Forecast: 48.5 Previous: 47.9

No complexity. No accident. 10/10 was caused by irresponsible marketing campaigns by certain companies. On October 10, tens of billions of dollars were liquidated. As CEO of OKX, we observed clearly that the crypto market’s microstructure fundamentally changed after that day. Many industry participants believe the damage was more severe than the FTX collapse. Since then, there has been extensive discussion about why it happened and how to prevent a recurrence. The root causes are not difficult to identify. ⸻ What actually happened 1.Binance launched a temporary user-acquisition campaign offering 12% APY on USDe, while allowing USDe to be used as collateral with the same treatment as USDT and USDC, and without effective limits. 2.USDe is a tokenized hedge fund product. Ethena raises capital via a so-called “stablecoin,” deploys it into index arbitrage and algorithmic trading strategies, and tokenizes the resulting fund. The token can then be deposited on exchanges to earn yield. 3.USDe is fundamentally different from products such as BlackRock BUIDL and Franklin Templeton BENJI, which are tokenized money market funds with low-risk profiles. USDe, by contrast, embeds hedge-fund-level risk. This difference is structural, not cosmetic. 4.Binance users were encouraged to convert USDT and USDC into USDe to earn attractive yields, without sufficient emphasis on the underlying risks. From a user’s perspective, trading with USDe appeared no different from trading with traditional stablecoins—while the actual risk profile was materially higher. 5.Risk escalated further as users: •converted USDT/USDC into USDe, •used USDe as collateral to borrow USDT, •converted the borrowed USDT back into USDe, •and repeated the cycle. This leverage loop produced artificial APYs of 24%, 36%, and even 70% , widely perceived as “low risk” simply because they were offered by a major platform. Systemic risk accumulated rapidly across the global crypto market. 6.At that point, even a small market shock was sufficient to trigger a collapse. When volatility hit, USDe depegged quickly. Cascading liquidations followed, and weaknesses in risk management around assets such as WETH and BNSOL further amplified the crash. Some tokens briefly traded near zero. The damage to global users and companies—including OKX customers—was severe, and recovery will take time. ⸻ Why this matters I am discussing the root cause, not assigning blame or launching an attack on Binance. Speaking openly about systemic risks is sometimes uncomfortable, but it is necessary if the industry is to mature responsibly. I expect there may be significant misinformation and coordinated FUD directed at OKX in the near future. Even so, speaking honestly about systemic risk is the right thing to do—and we will continue to do so. As the largest global platform, Binance has outsized influence—and corresponding responsibility—as an industry leader. Long-term trust in crypto cannot be built on short-term yield games, excessive leverage, or marketing practices that obscure risk. The industry needs leaders who prioritize market stability, transparency, and responsible innovation—not a winner-take-all mentality where criticism is treated as hostility. Crypto is still early. What we choose to normalize today will determine whether this industry earns lasting trust—or repeats the same mistakes again.

My conspiracy theory spidey sense says that Binance's move to prop up $BTC with their SAFU announcement was not because Binance is in trouble but rather because their friends and partners are in trouble and begging them to do something. Most of this industry was built on a completely unsubstantiated "BTC is digital gold" narrative, and a lot of big players who tied their reputations and fortunes to this narrative are now eating crow. I think the cabal will manually (manipulatively) start the "rotation into BTC" narrative themselves now that Gold and Silver are getting torched. Miners, exchanges, OTC desks, NYDIG, Blackrock, etc... all of them went all in on this "Digital gold" narrative and now they need to defend it. I rarely make price predictions (and certainly don't care enough about Bitcoin to predict it's price)... but I'd be shocked if BTC doesn't have a massive candle higher this weekend/week to jumpstart that rotation narrative on the heels of Silver and Gold's collapse.

TRUMP: ANNOUNCING FED CHAIR PICK TOMORROW MORNING

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Senate reaches spending deal to avoid US government shutdown.

This week signals the end of the consolidation phase that has gripped the market since Oct 10th. Starting next week, the Bulls will seize full control for a sustained six-month rally. Feb 4th—Lichun—marks the true awakening of the Year of Fire.