Joint Cyclone Center predicted tropical cyclone track forecasting based on a tropical weather outlook for hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons & windstorms.

Joined January 2015
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The Japan Meteorological Agency warns of an increased risk of a magnitude 8.0 earthquake within the next week and is urging people to evacuate now. #tsunami
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A #tsunami warning has been issued for Iwate and Hokkaido downgrade following a powerful earthquake off the northeastern coast of Japan, triggered off the east coast of Honshu.
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Super #Typhoon #Sinlaku slams Saipan with destructive winds and blinding rain. Conditions are rapidly deteriorating as this powerful storm batters the Northern Mariana Islands.
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#Typhoon #Sinlaku is beginning to lose some of its punch, weakening to a Category 4 storm as it moves past the Northern Mariana Islands. Satellite imagery shows a fading eye and warming cloud tops—but it remains a large and dangerous typhoon.

ALT Typhoon Sinlaku (04W) has rapidly weakened into a Category 4 equivalent system, with maximum sustained winds around 130 mph (210 km/h), as it passed just north-northwest of the Northern Mariana Islands. Infrared satellite imagery shows that while Sinlaku remains a powerful and well-organized typhoon, its structure has begun to degrade. The once well-defined eye has become less distinct and partially cloud-filled, and cloud tops near the core have shown slight warming, indicating a reduction in convective intensity. Despite this weakening trend, deep convection continues to wrap around the center, and the system still maintains a large, symmetric circulation with strong bands extending outward. The observed changes suggest that Sinlaku may be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle or encountering less favorable environmental conditions, such as increasing wind shear or cooler sea surface temperatures.

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#Typhoon #Sinlaku is tracking generally west-northwest toward the Northern Mariana Islands at landfall, where significant impacts are expected, including destructive winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, and dangerous seas with 145mph and a central pressure of 930 mb.

ALT Sinlaku is tracking generally west-northwest toward the Northern Mariana Islands at landfall, where significant impacts are expected, including destructive winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, and dangerous seas . The storm’s structure and intensity highlight an environment of near “ideal” conditions for tropical cyclone development, with a well-defined eye and strong outflow aloft. The infrared presentation shows a compact but powerful eyewall, with cloud-top temperatures reaching extremely low values, a sign of vigorous updrafts. Spiral rainbands extend outward, feeding the core and covering a broad area, while typhoon-force winds extend tens of miles from the center. Overall, Sinlaku is a textbook example of a high-end super typhoon, exhibiting exceptional organization, explosive intensification, and a classic satellite appearance associated with the most intense tropical cyclones on Earth.

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#TyphoonSinlaku is currently located east-southeast of Guam and is moving generally northwest toward the Mariana Islands. It has reached super typhoon strength, featuring a well-defined eye surrounded by intense deep convection and a tightly organized CDO structure.

ALT The latest satellite analysis, the system has reached super typhoon strength, featuring a well-defined eye surrounded by intense deep convection and a tightly organized central dense overcast structure. The cyclone is currently located east-southeast of Guam and is moving generally northwest toward the Mariana Islands. Environmental conditions remain highly favorable for a strong system, including very warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and efficient upper-level outflow, which have supported rapid intensification. The storm poses a significant threat to the Northern Mariana Islands, including Saipan and Tinian, with hazards including destructive winds, torrential rainfall, storm surge, coastal flooding, and dangerous sea conditions. Forecast guidance suggests gradual weakening after peak intensity as the system tracks northwest and encounters less favorable atmospheric conditions.

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#SuperTyphoonSinlaku rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 5-equivalent system, with sustained winds of around of 150 knots (175mph) and a central pressure of approximately 902mb.

ALT Super Typhoon Sinlaku (04W) formed in the warm waters of the western Pacific Ocean near Micronesia. It developed under favourable conditions, including high sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and a moist atmosphere, which allowed the storm to strengthen very quickly. Sinlaku rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 5-equivalent system, with sustained winds of around 150 knots and a central pressure of approximately 902mb. This rapid strengthening is an explosive of rapid intensification, where a tropical cyclone’s wind speeds increase dramatically over a short period of time. On satellite imagery, Sinlaku shows a highly organised structure with a clear, well-defined eye at its centre. Surrounding the eye is the eyewall, where the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall occur. Spiral rainbands extend outward, bringing intense rain and gusty winds to surrounding areas.

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Joint Cyclone Center retweeted
🌬 China acaba de registrar la ráfaga de viento más fuerte del año. Una supercélula arrasó el condado de Daishan, en la provincia de Zhejiang. Los vientos máximos alcanzaron la asombrosa cifra de 54,8 m/s (122 mph). 📹 @yangyubin1998
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Joint Cyclone Center retweeted
The Caribbean is slightly warmer than normal, while the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are slightly cooler than normal. This pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperatures provides mixed signals regarding the potential for an above- or below-normal Atlantic #hurricane season
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#CycloneMaila is a compact but very intense Category 4 tropical cyclone located over the Solomon Sea, showing a highly organized structure.

ALT Infrared satellite imagery displays a large central dense overcast with extremely cold cloud tops, which indicates very strong thunderstorms surrounding the center. Despite its strength, Maila is being affected by moderate easterly wind shear. This is causing the storm to tilt slightly and prevents the eye from becoming perfectly symmetrical. As a result, the cyclone appears somewhat uneven on satellite imagery. The environment around the storm is otherwise favorable, with warm ocean waters and good outflow, helping to maintain its intensity. However, because the system is moving slowly, it may begin to churn up cooler water beneath it (a process called upwelling), which could gradually weaken the storm if it continues. Maila’s movement is slow and somewhat erratic due to weak steering winds. This increases the risk of prolonged impacts, including damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and dangerous sea conditions for nearby islands.

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Joint Cyclone Center retweeted
New maps causing meteorologists to lose their minds in disbelief at massive heat build-up in the Equatorial Pacific The oceans will not literally be boiling red 🔴 in the early autumn, but the Super El Niño will drive unprecedented global extreme weather events.
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Post-#StormDave Final Advisory 9 Winds: 60mph EWSIS: ex-WS MSLP: 981mb #Dave is currently located near or over the coast of Rexvågen, affecting southern Sweden, and has become a post-windstorm tonight. This is the last advisory. More details on image description...
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#StormDave Advisory 8 Winds: 80mph EWSIS: C1 MSLP: 980mb #Dave is currently moving towards Dalarna County, Sweden, with strong winds affecting central and southern regions. More details on image description...
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#StormDave Advisory 7 Winds: 80mph EWSIS: C1 MSLP: 979mb Dave is currently affecting the region, with the storm system expected to gradually weaken as it moves northeastward across Rudssætra, Norway...
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#StormDave Advisory 6 Winds: 85mph EWSIS: C1 MSLP: 979mb #Dave is currently classified as a Category 1 cyclone, is making its way across Europe and is headed towards Buskerud and Innlandet in Norway...
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#StormDave Advisory 5 Winds: 90mph EWSIS: C2 MSLP: 978mb #Dave is currently moving toward Norway, bringing damaging gusts, heavy rain, snow, and coastal flooding to areas in southern Norway and northern Denmark today, with the storm expected to gradually weaken later...
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#StormDave Advisory 4 Winds: 100mph EWSIS: C2 MSLP: 972mb #Dave is currently tracking toward the northeastern coast of Europe. The storm is moving toward the North Sea and is likely to affect the coastal regions of northern Germany, Denmark, and possibly the Netherlands...
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#StormDave Advisory 3 Winds: 90mph EWSIS: C2 MSLP: 974mb #Dave is expected to track across North Sea, strengthening as it moves toward Scandinavia. Increasing winds & coastal impacts are likely from late Sunday into Monday, particularly across southern Norway, Denmark, and Sweden
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#StormDave Advisory 2 Winds: 85mph EWSIS: C1 MSLP: 978mb #Dave is expected to move northeast across Northern Scotland tonight, bringing moderate to strong winds, especially across the UK and parts of northern mainland Europe from Easter Sunday into Monday...
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#StormDave is impacting parts of northern and western Europe, bringing widespread strong winds and hazardous conditions from Saturday night into Easter Sunday.
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Overall, this windstorm represents a moderate to high-impact event, with conditions gradually improving as the system tracks further into northeastern Europe.
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