Dear Nairobi voters, take your time, but please vote wisely.
This is purely my personal observation and interpretation of Nairobi politics over the years.
I have said before that my biggest fear is that come 2027, we may once again find ourselves making the same mistake while believing we are making a different choice.
If you study Nairobi since the inception of devolution, one thing becomes apparent, the capital has almost always found a way of being shared between different centres of power. Whether people like hearing it or not, there has often been a delicate balance between those in government and those in opposition. The names change, the slogans change, the colours change, but the underlying arrangements rarely seem to change as much as people imagine.
When I watch Denzel’s body language, I get the impression of someone who understands exactly where things are headed. It almost feels as though his role has largely been fulfilled and that attention is already shifting towards the next chapter. If everything goes according to plan, I would not be surprised to see him elevated elsewhere while a familiar and predictable succession unfolds.
What I find particularly interesting is that there does not seem to be the kind of ruthless battle one would expect between Denzel and the man who appears to be his biggest opponent and, in my view, the most likely successor. For a city and economy of Nairobi’s magnitude, everything seems unusually calm, almost as if the outcome is already broadly understood by those who matter most.
Nairobi is not just another county. Its economy rivals that of some neighbouring countries. Ask yourself why the battle for the city’s top seat often appears less intense than one would expect for such an important prize. Perhaps there is more happening behind the scenes than the public is allowed to see.
My suspicion is that today’s fiercest political rivals may very well be tomorrow’s partners. In fact, I would not be surprised if the current governor and his presumed successor already have a far better working relationship than many people imagine. Time may reveal that what appeared to be competition was simply part of a much larger political arrangement.
Another observation is that it increasingly feels as though the boss himself has quietly accepted where Nairobi is headed and may even be indirectly helping to elevate the new kid on the block. Most people will probably disagree today, but I suspect many will be surprised by how smoothly the transition unfolds if events continue on their current trajectory.
The cycle keeps moving. One player exits centre stage, another takes over, and the outgoing player is often reassigned to a new role elsewhere should the political stars align. The faces change, the offices change, but the script often feels remarkably familiar.
People need to understand the politics of the capital. Nairobi has a way of producing combinations that look different on paper but feel remarkably familiar in practice. You may think you are getting something entirely new, only to realise you have received a blend of what came before, wrapped in new packaging and accompanied by plenty of paperwork.
Mark this post. It is only my personal view, and I could be completely wrong. Time, as always, will be the final judge.
It is what it is.
#ReclaimNairobi