His orders look to always involve fractional shares, so he is likely not doing manual orders and the stake is determined by something else (like kelly criterion or other). Lots of position sizes ranging from tiny to huge, meaning he could be covering all sides of the bets or he simply is betting according to edge.
I think he's cross "time" arbing the btc mkts which is very profitable if you know the option value of btc price at x date. Then you just pick off prices that are wrong. Looking at his activity, he's obviously automated this.
On Poly, there's lots of opps coz markets that are correlated - like "btc by dec 4th > 100k" & "btc by dec 5th > 100k" - become disrupted by the current retail betting base. As in, a bettor comes along and market orders "btc by dec 4th > 100k", crossing the spread so moving the price, but "dec 5th > 100k price" doesn't change because the retail bettor didn't cross the spread on that market, however they are obviously correlated mkts so at least 1 of the prices on either outcome has to be the wrong price. That would result in at least 1 ev bet.
This is like 1 out of 20 things i've thought of how to gain edge on polymarket, alas I have no coding skill so tradfi quants, you can have at it.
PS: I manually put on a cross market arb @ 8% return ending in a month just now. Lots of opps there.
This trader has been blocked from all exchanges
I have no other explanation for why he trades Bitcoin price predictions so successfully on Polymarket
> Joined a month ago
> 70.9% win rate
> 1329 historical positions
> $586k total profit
And the most interesting thing is that all of his trades are related to the price of Bitcoin. That's why I'm not afraid of traders who trade on all types of markets; I'm afraid of traders who trade on a single market
He still have some active positions and you can check them -
polymarket.com/@blubberbuste…