Bill Ackman was asked how he would underwrite SpaceX at $750 billion and his answer was the most honest thing anyone has said about the biggest IPO in history (Save this).
"You underwrite SpaceX the way you underwrite a venture capital investment."
His business school professor taught him a framework that has guided his entire career, it's people, opportunity, context, deal.
On all three of the first criteria, People, Opportunity, and Context Ackman's verdict was the same, SpaceX is one of one, and nothing else in the market comes close.
He even acknowledged feeling bad for Blue Origin before noting that their being so far behind is not harmful to SpaceX but rather a structural tailwind that leaves SpaceX with a near monopoly on low cost orbital access for years to come.
And at $1.75 trillion, the number SpaceX is actually targeting on June 12, the question is no longer whether this is the best business on earth, but what the present value math looks like when you extend it five years forward and stress test every assumption about Starlink, launch economics, and AI compute revenue.
He said that even Amazon is going to have to become a bigger SpaceX customer, because Blue Origin is so far behind that Amazon has no real alternative for low-cost orbital access.
He also said something that almost no one is giving enough weight heading into Thursday's listing: "Time has become increasingly valuable in the AI era. You lose a month, you lose a couple months today, and it means a lot."
The Colossus and Macro Hard facilities are compounding infrastructure assets where every month of operational delay means less contracted revenue, less negotiating leverage with customers like Google and Anthropic, and a progressively weaker moat against the hyperscalers who are now racing to build competing compute capacity.
Come join Milk Road Pro for our full SpaceX IPO breakdown, how we're stress-testing the Deal leg of Ackman's framework at $1.75 trillion, what our five-year revenue model actually looks like, and our full AI thesis.
Link below.
This is WILD!
One week before SpaceX's historic IPO, Google signed a deal to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to 110,000 Nvidia GPUs, CPUs, and related infrastructure (Save this).
That is $11 billion per year and up to $30 billion over the life of the contract.
This comes less than a month after Anthropic committed $1.25 billion per month for full access to the Colossus 1 data center in Memphis, 200,000 GPUs, 300 megawatts of power capacity, through 2029.
Two of the most consequential AI labs in the world combined committed value over $70 billion.
The question that haunted SpaceX's IPO roadshow was why did Elon keep spending billions constructing Colossus, Macro Hard and Macro Harder, three facilities totaling nearly 2 gigawatts of AI compute when xAI's revenue wasn't yet on the same trajectory as OpenAI or Anthropic?
Wall Street was pricing in a risk that Elon was building capacity ahead of revenue which would mean sustained cash burn without a clear payback timeline.
That concern was legitimate on its face, because xAI had been aggressive on model development but had not yet demonstrated the enterprise revenue numbers to justify the infrastructure cost.
The answer is that the compute itself was always the product.
Amazon has AWS, Microsoft has Azure, Google has Google Cloud, Elon just confirmed that he has been quietly building the fourth major hyperscale AI cloud and his first two paying customers are Google and Anthropic, the very companies most aggressively competing in the AI race.
xAI's Colossus facility in Memphis was built at a speed that no traditional data center developer could match, it went from groundbreaking to operational in roughly 122 days.
That is what happens when you have direct Nvidia relationships, a construction operation built around SpaceX-style execution, and a founder who treats infrastructure buildout the same way he treats rocket launches: compress every timeline and eliminate every bottleneck.
The result is that SpaceX now has three operational facilities, Colossus, Macro Hard, and Macro Harder with Macro Hard and Macro Harder in Blackwell architecture running 1.2 gigawatts combined.
Colossus 1, built on H100s and optimized for inference, is the facility that went to Anthropic first.
The Blackwell-era facilities are where the next-generation training workloads happen and Google's deal suggests they are renting into that capacity as it comes online through the second half of 2026.
Elon's compute leasing business would generate approximately $45 billion in incremental annual revenue on top of the mid-$20 billion range analysts had been modeling for SpaceX more than enough to fully subsidize the infrastructure investment and take the financial pressure off xAI delivering immediate AI product revenue.
That changes the entire valuation conversation of SpaceX completely!
Milk road remains bullish on Space and come join Milk Road Pro and get our full SpaceX IPO breakdown, how we're thinking about the $1.75 trillion valuation and our entire AI thesis. Link below!