Here is what I think is going on in Iran across three different broad categories:
- Things supporting regime change in Iran
- Things opposing regime change in Iran
- Similarities between Canada and Iran
Things Going for Regime Change in Iran
1) The regime is not a democratically elected, legitimate government. It is a brutal regime, so this will not be seen as a "color revolution" as was the case with the Maidan Coup in 2014
2) There is 40% inflation in Iran, so the population is frustrated and willing to topple the government
3) Iran lobbing missiles indiscriminately has cost it sympathy in the international community
4) Mass migration has turned the Canadian people against Islam, and, ironically, more sympathetic to the Iranian people who also oppose the regime
Things going against regime change in Iran
1) The MAGA/populist base doesn't want another Middle East "Forever war"
2) After the Ukraine war and the drone strike on Russian strategic bombers, the American people see this as an attempt to get Trump to go back to supporting the US empire (NATO)
3) Israel is, in many respects, an extension of the US military, and the US taxpayer will have to fund this conflict that Israel will fight on behalf of the US
4) Americans do not primarily care about Iranians, they are worried more presently about their upcoming midterm elections
5) Russia, China, Pakistan and Turkey may well rally behind Iran, and the conflict could escalate
6) Israel attacking Iran, then running to the US for assistance made it lose face in the international community
7) If Israel takes out the refineries in Iran, an, in response, if Iran takes out refineries of their neighbors, the price of oil will go up, and this will undermine Trump's promise of reducing inflation
Canada and Iran are going through the same pains, theirs are just more severe
1) Inflation: We have ~10% inflation and we cannot afford beef. They have ~40% inflation and they cannot afford food
2) Speculation: Our government is printing money so people are using housing as an inflation resistant form of money. Their government is printing a massive amount of money so people are even using cars as an inflation resistant form of money.
3) Crime: We have financial misery here so we have an increase in break ins and auto theft. They have a financial catastrophe so people are holding others at knifepoint in broad day light to rob them
4) The enemy within: We are fighting leftists/collectivists harassing us, telling us that we are racist, sexist, colonialist, transphobes. They are fighting Muslim fanatics harassing them, telling them that they are immoral sinners and sexual perverts.