Recently, we purchased one of each Anthropic/OpenAI subscription plan and randomly ran long horizon coding tasks until we exhausted the weekly limit. It's widely believed that a $200/month plan maxes out at ~$2000/month worth of tokens (assuming API pricing). However, we found that the subscriptions are actually far more generous. (2/4)

I love how bears think companies are completely incapable of verifying token efficiency. In their mind CFOs have absolutely no idea how much to order. $1m or $100m a quarter. No idea In the real world, obviously, the job of the CTO is to supervise token usage. Spy on the exact queries if they must. Create novel efficiency metrics. Fire employees who divert tokens for personal projects. Distribute tokens according to proficiency. It’s not this impossible task the bears imagine it is.

swear to god all of the models are mistrained on something I call "reddit physics"

Anthropic has confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Pending completion of SEC review, this gives us the option to pursue an initial public offering. Read more: anthropic.com/news/confident…

I’ve been struck by this phenomenon in much of the discussion around Hormuz. Who exactly should one listen to for systems as complex and reflexive as energy? (Evidently not IEA.) Is it even possible to make meaningful predictions for out-of-distribution shocks like strait closure given all of the second-order effects that one has to model? Are all forecasts fatally conceited?

Couple of wild anecdotes from Nat Friedman about his OpenClaw

OKC knows they can just fall and the refs will blow the whistle 😭

Founder and author @ericries says public companies that report quarterly tend to be 5% less valuable than those that report semiannually, based on data from other countries. "It's not because the effort to do a quarterly report is expensive (although it is expensive and annoying). Rather, they start to run the company for the quarterly report." "So companies no longer make products. They start to view the quarterly report as the product. Which means they're basically meme factories — 'What do I have to do to generate the report that will get me what I want?'" "If you look at other countries as natural experiments, where certain countries have switched from semiannual to quarterly reporting, or vice versa, and they happen to do it in such a way that not every company changed at the same time, and it was random who did which. We actually know the valuation consequences of quarterly reporting. It's roughly a 5% loss of total equity value." "Companies are 5% less valuable when they report quarterly, vs. semiannual." "The academic research on this is pretty good. And the magnitude of the cost — we're talking about so many billions of dollars of lost value."

just incase any of you are setting up a new OpenClaw agent. i'll be back writing more useful article soon!