Joined January 2024
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SemiAnalysis retweeted
My transformers Canadian My silicon Taiwanese Dario’s De’Aaron Fox OpenAI in (GPT) 6
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SITUATION DETECTED: The city of Rio de Janerio has post-trained a model. Based on Qwen 7/2, Rio 3.5 Open 397B adds SwiReasoning on top of the base Qwen model — a framework that dynamically switches between standard chain-of-thought and latent-space reasoning, guided by entropy-based confidence signals, so the model only "thinks out loud" when it needs to and otherwise reasons silently in hidden space for better token efficiency.
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I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
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DAY 0 ALERT: @MiniMax_AI M3 is now available on HuggingFace & has been added to InferenceX. The M3 architecture has ~428B parameters and ~23B activated parameters. Due to the 10x engineers from @inferact, M3 is already delivering pretty well-optimized performance on @NVIDIAAI B300 Blackwell Ultra on Day 0 @vllm_project! Furthermore, Inferact released their EAGLE3 heads, which enable even greater performance. Looking forward to Day 1, 2, and 3 performance & the team is grinding on benchmarking Day 0 MI355X performance on InferenceX too.
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we heard fable got banned
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The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Congrats to @vllm_project & @lmsysorg for releasing MiniMax M3 428B on both the CUDA & ROCm stack on day 0! MiniMax M3 includes: 🟠 Block sparse attention which is 9x faster prefill over M2.7 🟠 Day 0 open MXFP8 weights 🟠 and Furthermore @Inferact released Day-0 EAGLE3 open weight draft model support Excited to try out the performance on MiniMax M3!
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Morgan Stanley ECM on $SPCX: "engaging stabilizers..." 🚀
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The concept of “80,000 hours” career consulting doesn’t even make sense. If someone wants to have a high-impact life, they would be working more than 80,000 hours, i.e. more than 40 hours a week. They should rename themselves to 160,000 Hours. If you want to have a high-impact career and are a motivated AI engineer, email us: letsgo@SemiAnalysis.com
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Alongside the launch of our H100 1-Click Rental Index, we wrote up what the GPU rental market actually looks like in early 2026, and the headline is that the spot market for compute has gone from "finally cooling off" in October to a hard squeeze again, in roughly five months. (1/4) 🧵
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What we walk through in the article is why this isnt a repeat of the 2023 squeeze. The demand side is no longer training-led, its agentic, and our internal SemiAnalysis usage is one of many examples where token spend has moved from a curiosity to a real line item. When productivity gains run 5-10x token cost, demand becomes structurally inelastic and the rental market reflects it. (3/4)
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Interestingly, the public market is positioned in the opposite direction, with neocloud names trading like the cycle is about to roll over. Our read, which we lay out in the piece, is that the scarcity is real, the long-dated rental floor is much higher than the equity setup implies, and existing H100 fleets have meaningfully more economic life left than the consensus model assumes. Link to the Newsletter: (4/4) newsletter.semianalysis.com/…
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Pretraining fundamentally does not make sense anymore for anyone other than frontier labs. Although there are a lot of people at enterprises & startups who have "Pretrainitis" to show “impact” and get promotions, fundamentally, it doesn’t make sense. There is probably higher ROI in partnering with a frontier lab to do prompt engineering, although it isn’t as “sexy” as pretraining.
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GPU Racks hitting 400kW? Legacy data centers wont be able to handle it and the grid WILL get throttled. Radiant's 12 month, dirt to AI production, was made possible by bypassing the grid. Head of Infrastructure, Patrick Wohlschlegel tells @JordanNanos youtu.be/SQtavfviwrs
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Intel Should Raise Capital Intel's woes are behind them. The heavy spending is ahead of them. Why an equity issuance in a hot equity market could make Intel so much better sooner. newsletter.semianalysis.com/…
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SLOP ALERT: Claude Code UI is complete slop. In the in-app file tree, when u click on a .png, it opens it as a base64-encoded file instead of rendering the image. We’d rather Anthropic not release the desktop app than release an L desktop App. Tons of bugs.
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What's the better business model for an AI lab, subscription or API? (1/4)🧵
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The margin on a subscription plan is a function of the average utilization. If we assume both companies have 75% API gross margins, this results in the following subscription margins. (3/4)
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Obviously this is way worse than API overall. However, explicitly nerfing subscriptions leads to huge public backlash, and the rapidly falling cost of intelligence means you'll be able to profitably serve Opus 4.8 level models for $20/month in the near future. We therefore think it's far more likely the labs will withhold new features/models from subscription plans. It will be interesting to see if Mythos ends up being API only. (4/4)
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