Private investor. I cover a lot of Industrials, construction, global services. Value oriented. kairosresearch.substack.com | Soli Deo Gloria

Joined July 2020
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$BFT.WA is interesting. growing rapidly, 46% yoy, and trading at ~20x FCF/earnings. it's the dominant operator of multi-gym employee benefit access cards in Poland, plus a growing owned fitness-club network. Basically, polish employers have benefit programs where employees are given gym and wellbeing access. Employees are only allowed access through the card program, so the employer relationship is the moat for Benefit Systems. The administrative cost of switching to a competitor card is a headache because of new payroll integration, employee re-enrollment, and communication. And more importantly, there is no competitor with a comparable facility network in Poland. The employer pays Benefit Systems a monthly per-card fee, and then Benefit Systems pays the partner facility (gym, pool, studio) a fee per employee visit, and keeps the spread between the two. The problem is that they experience margin pressure as gym activity increases because they pay per visit. The solution was to vertically integrate by rolling up fitness clubs, which allows them to capture far more value as usage increases. They have also entered other markets in Europe.
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$AMPG up 140% since I went long in January. I've already trimmed a few times. I don't have a lot conviction here and If im being honest, I don't really understand the industry very well (hence the mis-categorization as "industrial tech" below) I'm leaning towards cutting the position, but im all ears if anyone can make a reasonable case that this is going much higher.
Yesterday I sold the remainder of my $VST position as well as my $FND position, and put the cash into $AMPG at $3.74. AmpliTech Group is a small industrial tech company (radio frequency amplifiers) that recently faced some headwinds due to one-time upfront costs, which are now largely in the rear view mirror. The companies financials appear to be at an inflection point. -Revenue 115% YoY (Q3 FY25: $6.09M vs. $2.83M) -Gross margin jumped from 7.8% to 48.6% QoQ -Net loss reduced 84% YoY -9-month revenue hit a record $20.7M -Zero long-term debt and ~$14M working capital The company also just cleared a key milestone O-RAN Alliance certification for its 64T64R Massive MIMO radio. Why this matters: • Certification = permission to compete in real Open RAN deployments • Product targets dense urban enterprise 5G (Band n78) • Removes a major blocker for LOI's converting to purchase orders Average analyst target is 100% from here (~$9 ) Guardian Research get's the credit for putting this back on my radar. I haven't read the full article because it's paywalled, but if anyone is interested, here it is. open.substack.com/pub/guardi…
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I don't follow $TVK.TO very closely, but looking at it now after the drop. my question to those who follow it more closely is: Is Charles Pellerin the thing which makes TVK what it is? is he so essential that his absence substantially changes the thesis?
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$LOGC He’s also director and a major owner of ContextLogic.
Abrams Capital is one of the most underrated and successful single managers. David Abrams has compounded at ~15% a year from 1999 to 2014 and manages over $10B today, running what's close to a one-man shop. Let's dive in!
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Investors tend to allocate capital to the investment process that provides similar or better results at lower cost. AI-driven investment strategies can provide similar or better results than many hedge funds at a substantially lower cost. Guess what logically follows?
JUST IN: A growing number of people reportedly say they trust AI to manage money & make investment decisions, threatening the wealth management industry.
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There are only two companies in North America that are capable of producing pharmaceutical grade evaporated salt that is used in life saving therapies such as Dialysis fluid and IV saline. I own one of them (U.S. Salt) via my stake in $LOGC , who acquired them earlier this year. I'm eager to see what else they acquire, and how well they monetize their massive pile of NOL's now that they have an asset that produces meaningful taxable income. Long at $7.64
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am I the only person who is scared to connect IBKR to claude?
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Kairos Investment Research ♟️ retweeted
Added 69 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 1): @farrer36am (overviews) - $NORBT.OL, $GDS, $MNTS, $AVIO.MI, $1523.HK, $GLBE, $BKD, $0823.HK, $DKNG, $QXO @BlokeOak57182 - $HGT.L @PhilippHaas_ir - $NU @StockcoachPB - $FVRR @LDiscernment - $TIC (update) @siyul - $FISV (update)
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An excerpt from my $KWY article recently, detailing some intriguing capital allocation. “Management preserved cash at a weak moment through an interest deferral agreement embedded the Trust Preferred securities (TruP’s). Then they sold a search portfolio asset at a 10x return, and immediately used some of the proceeds to buy options to retire the TRuP’s at a significant discount before the deferral window ended, all while accruing interests that counted against the repurchase price during the option period. The real genius here is turning a position of weakness into a negotiating opportunity. “
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Who are today’s Rales Brothers?
Early take (1988) on the Rales Brothers. $DHR
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If you think $TIC will hit their 2029 performance targets ($3b sales, 18% EBITDA margin, 2.5x net leverage), it implies a share price of ~$26 or roughly 210% upside from here. This assumes an EBITDA multiple of 12-14x, which is in line with consulting/TIC peers.
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Bingo.
100%. I'm really excited about the coming years. Passive momentum is distorting prices in my view (and for stock pickers like us, I believe that's a good thing, not a bad thing)
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The archetype of the “market wizard" provides a perfect cultural mask for an overinflated ego.
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Taking this run as an opportunity to cut some $AMPG its low conviction/speculative for me, market providing ample liquidity.
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$TIC ‘s 2029 plan is ambitious considering its recent performance. -11% revenue CAGR ~320 bps margin expansion ~400 bps expansion in FCF conversion Should yield ~$540m adj EBITDA ~$450m Unlevered FCF
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$AMPG continues to rip on big volume day after day.
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Kairos Investment Research ♟️ retweeted
$ACP.WA Asseco Poland reports strong preliminary Q1 2026 results: • Revenue 8.8% to PLN 4.40bn • EBITDA 21.9% to PLN 695m • Operating profit 32.9% to PLN 513m • Net profit attributable to shareholders 67.6% to PLN 228m
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$TIC finally introduces long term targets.
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I was probably a bit early on this one, but it appears $AMPG may be turning a corner as margins and cash conversion remain stable. They doubled their days payable outstanding (DPO), implying better supplier payment terms as they scale. If this trajectory continues they will probably be cash flow positive over the next few quarters.
Yesterday I sold the remainder of my $VST position as well as my $FND position, and put the cash into $AMPG at $3.74. AmpliTech Group is a small industrial tech company (radio frequency amplifiers) that recently faced some headwinds due to one-time upfront costs, which are now largely in the rear view mirror. The companies financials appear to be at an inflection point. -Revenue 115% YoY (Q3 FY25: $6.09M vs. $2.83M) -Gross margin jumped from 7.8% to 48.6% QoQ -Net loss reduced 84% YoY -9-month revenue hit a record $20.7M -Zero long-term debt and ~$14M working capital The company also just cleared a key milestone O-RAN Alliance certification for its 64T64R Massive MIMO radio. Why this matters: • Certification = permission to compete in real Open RAN deployments • Product targets dense urban enterprise 5G (Band n78) • Removes a major blocker for LOI's converting to purchase orders Average analyst target is 100% from here (~$9 ) Guardian Research get's the credit for putting this back on my radar. I haven't read the full article because it's paywalled, but if anyone is interested, here it is. open.substack.com/pub/guardi…
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Kairos Investment Research ♟️ retweeted
Added 80 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 3): @UpslopeCapital (fund letter) - $SJ.TO, $LIFCO-B.ST, $KESKOB.HE, $JKHY @eventuallyright - $OUST @ragingbullcap - $PLBY @BanyanLaneCap - $MRAAY @__MattLindsay (watchlist) - $CSGP, $QBR-B.TO @LDiscernment - $KFS (overview)
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