Joined March 2020
- Tweets 3,297
- Following 2,684
- Followers 3,389
- Likes 7,106
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Feb 5
Giannis hysteria, brought to you by Shams. @kalshi bettors might have a case for commodities fraud from his relentless pumping.
Throughout this process, I valued Giannis at about ~25% to be traded by the deadline. Because the market was dominated by fanboys market buying their team to >20c, the winning option hit as low as 33c from negative risk dynamics.
Why didn't this trade happen? Let's go through this, thread below.
Feb 5
The Milwaukee Bucks have indicated to teams that they are keeping Giannis Antetokounmpo through the trade deadline and will start making other trades, sources tell ESPN.
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Jun 9
Well we have enough information between the LA, SC, FL and now this to conclude this is a clickbait pollster and not a serious project. No reason that aggregators should include these or promote them.
TPSI Maine Poll
Senate Ballot:
🔴Susan Collins: 43.7% ( 0.6)
🔵Graham Platner: 43.1%
⚪️Undecided: 13.2%
“Over the last week, rumors have surfaced that Graham Platner sexually assaulted multiple women in the past. Platner even sent one text to a former girlfriend reading 'I would rape them to show them that I'm dominant.' However, Planter's wife has defended him against these accusations. Knowing this, who would you vote for in the 2026 senate race?"
🔵Graham Platner: 48.2% ( 8.2)
🔴Susan Collins: 40.1%
⚪️Undecided: 11.7%
Governor
🔵Nirav Shah: 46.7%
🔴Robert Charles: 32.2%
⚪️Undecided: 22.1%
Generic Ballot:
🔵Democrats: 50.9%
🔴Republicans: 40.1%
⚪️Undecided: 9.0%
n=497 | ±4.9 MOE | LV 6/8
SUBSTACK: open.substack.com/pub/tpsiof…
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Jun 7
Not quite sure he understands how much he is going to lose by when they're done
Jun 7
Remember everyone…we are still in the lead, and we’ve got allllllll the way til July 6th to keep counting. They’re not the only ones who know where to find votes 😉
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Jun 7
Don't think we would have had this wild Spencer Pratt volume and liquidity on @kalshi if Elon had never bought Twitter.
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Jun 5
Do not tail this, it is still pretty unlikely. She needs a lot to break her way, including upward # of outstanding ballots. Likely has a ceiling in what % of the drops she can actually win.
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Jun 5
I've voted in the LA Mayor's race about 20 times now. My 5 votes for Raman show as received by LA County. My 15 votes for Pratt still haven't "arrived". Mailed them at the same time with my address being a port-a-potty in Venice Beach. This is how Dems are stealing the race.
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Jun 4
Computer, enhance
Jun 4
I think the people with money against Spencer Pratt on @kalshi are low IQ. He's at 37% chance. I don't even think they teach math in LA anymore, but let's do some anyway.
Pratt is up by ~40k votes with ~300k votes left.
A bulk of those, say 100k, will go to Karen Bass.
So that means Nithya Raman out of the remaining 200k, would need to get about 120k to Pratt's 80k to pass him. That's about 40%, when right now she's at rate of 22%.
It's LA and all votes are not created equal, but I would put my money against Nithya getting 40% of the remaining votes.
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Jun 4
Lots of these tweets going around lately, just implore ppl to have more imagination. Like there being more ballots than this or Raman just outright winning drops ahead of Bass. What do they think dropboxes in her CD are going to look like?
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Jun 3
Berkeley IGS poll | 5/19-5/24
Los Angeles mayor jungle primary 2026
(Top two vote getters advance to November)
🟦Karen Bass 26% (incumbent)
🟦Nithya Raman 25%
🟥Spencer Pratt 22%
🟦Rae Chen Huang 9%
🟦Adam Miller 5%
Undecided/did not vote for mayor 10%
latimes.com/california/story… latimes.com/california/story…
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Jun 3
Thinking about the guy who spent $1M on Spencer Pratt to win LA Mayor
May 20
Same day a loony tune acquires 3.88M shares of Spencer Pratt on @kalshi, ripping through the book whilst eating slippage and paying ginormous fees, Cygnal drops a poll of LA Mayor showing:
-Bass 47-33 over Pratt in a H2H
- 25/22/18 for Bass/Pratt/Raman
- Favorables of -50 / -20 / -12 for Trump / Bass /Pratt.
So lots of room in the fall for a concentrated Dem campaign to tie Trump to Pratt and sink him lower than Bass.
Not to mention he could miss the runoff entirely to Raman if she overperforms the primary electorate. So people are paying through the nose for Pratt when he may not even be there in the Fall.
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Jun 1
Going to fill out my ballot in Glendora today to vote for Spencer Pratt for LA Mayor!
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May 25
Good to know who your counterparties are
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May 23
Anyone else almost lose hundreds of thousands on the best heavyweight boxer in the world to beat a kickboxer? Nightmare fuel. Was ready to look up food kitchens.
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
May 21
In the most impressive feat of predicting ever, the traders on @Kalshi successfully predicted with a high degree of certainty who would win survivor before a single episode aired!!
They also flawlessly predicted who would get voted out each week (except for 2 weeks where they were wrong at first, but right eventually before the episode aired) and were able to forecast what Jeff would say in each episode!
Give it up for your Kalshi traders!!!
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May 20
Same day a loony tune acquires 3.88M shares of Spencer Pratt on @kalshi, ripping through the book whilst eating slippage and paying ginormous fees, Cygnal drops a poll of LA Mayor showing:
-Bass 47-33 over Pratt in a H2H
- 25/22/18 for Bass/Pratt/Raman
- Favorables of -50 / -20 / -12 for Trump / Bass /Pratt.
So lots of room in the fall for a concentrated Dem campaign to tie Trump to Pratt and sink him lower than Bass.
Not to mention he could miss the runoff entirely to Raman if she overperforms the primary electorate. So people are paying through the nose for Pratt when he may not even be there in the Fall.
BREAKING: "Bass is flat, capped out, and carrying the weight of a city voters believe is headed in the wrong direction."
— @brentbuc on new LA Mayor poll, which shows @spencerpratt pulling even with Bass at 25% among likely primary voters.
Full breakdown on our website👇
cygn.al/news/la-mayor-poll-p…
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May 20
Should go without saying this poll, while not clearly disclosing sponsorship, reeks of some kind of pro-Pratt funding with the language and "informed ballot" questions favoring Pratt.
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May 20
The OI on the Spencer Pratt strike for LA Mayor on @kalshi just increased by about 1.4M in the last hour after some giant market buy.
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May 19
A long and arduous road...
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