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An immense honor to have been a guest with Tom Bodrovics @PalisadesRadio. As a long-time subscriber and fan of your work, it was nothing short of a pleasure to be with you. Let's prepare for what's next with the macro backdrop on the heels of a massive move in #gold and #silver
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I like what I see. This is still how I'm playing it. I would avoid waiting for a market crash as any kind of reference for timing or reason to wait. Remember, while some things are definitely inevitable, inevitability is often a terrible trade/investment strategy. In the end it's all about timing. It can take decades for inevitability to arrive. I bring this up because this seems to be what everyone is afraid of, and quite frankly I see no reason not to be bullish on metals and miners right now. Even if the market were to crash in the near future, it doesn't even matter. We knowingly have a plan for that too. We know what the response would be. We know everything we need to know already. In terms of both price and timing, the weekly 50ema & 200ema on physical gold are still the "must buy" retracement markers which I've literally spent years talking about. Years. That's because I knew when the bull market finally came, we'd have to deal with these types of situations and 'uncertainties' and I wanted everyone mentally prepared well in advance. If gold were to ride along/under the W50ema rather than bounce from it, you're in an accumulation phase rather than a pivot low. That's the only other nuance you need to understand. The plan is unchanged. The strategy is unchanged. The precedent is unchanged. The macro is still in play. The drivers behind the bull market are strengthening, even if they're temporarily and naturally offset for a moment. The plan was never to check golds performance along the way against some sloping trendline. This is no longer the type of analysis that will get you anywhere. The plan has always been to buy major retracements using the weekly 50/200ema as the definitive guide with a clear understanding of what each of them meant in terms of expectations. Today, gold is slightly below the W50ema. So what? That doesn't mean it's headed towards the 200. It's not unusual in a bull run to see it skirt a little below like it is now. This is normal. I've talked about this a lot in the past too. We also predicted that many new precedent would be set during this bull run. We've been vindicated so far. Some of the new precedent you could argue is actually the lack of prior precedent being true this time around. Things are absolutely different this time. Make no mistake. I would like to compile all of the things I'm seeing the share in the near future. I'm still very interested in the gold/oil ratio and what it's been able to tell us historically vs what's happening now. I'll have to write a standalone update about all of that later. I feel like I'm zeroing in on something but it's too early to say. The miners are in the process of back testing their new precedent of breakout distance from moving averages just as gold dips a bit below the W50ema all of which is in confluence. Some are already there, some need a little further to go. It's not uncommon for me to post around this point in time of a cycle... The deja vu of explaining these conditions is strong. So once again we have confluence of miners backtesting critical support of their recent moving average breakout levels with gold skirting the weekly 50ema all while being oversold and scary to buy. Those of you who've followed me long enough know what this means already... That we're likely to see confluence across the mining sector retracing these backtests and all completing before the next mega rally. To clarify... This mostly applies to flagship names retesting their distance from moving average price supports. At least 90% or so of them need to complete this backtest before we can proceed again. All looks good to me. I saw an email from Don Durrett recently, suggesting that his followers not be traders in this bull market. For 95% of you, this is spot-on advice. It's best to continually invest on major dips with a multi-year investment strategy. That's where you're at today, if you're a bull. I personally see no reason to sell, but do see reasons to add new tranches. I can't speak to whether we get an immediate pivot bottom here or run boringly sideways for a few weeks. To get a pivot you'd need a little more fast and hard selling. But we're back into a buy zone regardless. #gold #silver
Looks like we are potentially headed to the weekly 50ema on gold. I've spent a few years talking about this retracement target to have us all mentally prepared for this moment when it eventually came. All this time later... we are probably here. During a bull run, gold never loses the weekly 50ema. If it does, that's the signal that momentum is done and the current uptrend is over. It may tick just below it (what I call a "peekaboo") but it never actually loses it. The lone exception was during the GFC when it hit the 200ema instead (and v bottomed). The GFC was of course a major crisis, but what it did was effectively truncate the existing bull run in gold, much like COVID did to a majority of the market in 2020 (get major selloff, V recover to starting line, resume any existing bull on same trajectory within prior trends like it never happened). Historically, this weekly 50ema is the most ideal retracement target in any gold bull market. Literally THE sweet spot. It's reliable, usually oversold when it happens, rebounds quickly as a springboard, and tends to only come every ~15 months or so (I don't remember exactly, been a while since I mined all of this). It's simply the ideal sweet spot for a retracement buy during a bull market. I will buy it with prejudice. Time silver the same way using gold as the guide. If we get another "GFC" and for any reason gold hits the weekly 200ema, that's the true YOLO spot. I once said a couple of years ago when analyzing gold bull market retracements (getting ready for now) that we'd go all in on the 50ema, then borrow money on leverage to buy the 200ema (if it happened). I think that's still the right way to look at it. The point I'm trying to make is borderline literal. There are no arbitrary "price" targets. We all-in buy the 50ema and we refinance our lives to buy the 200ema. Nothing in between. That's a dead zone between the two moving averages. By the time we hit the 50ema we should have an idea of whether or not we have a shot at another GFC and thus a shot at the 200ema.
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I was writing a post but won't have time to finish. I'll update later today/tonight. Spoiler: I like what I see
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I've been busy all morning, just checked the market for the first time all day. We got the touch! And I missed the bottom of it. I told you how strong that weekly 50ema was! Quick phone chart
Looks like we are potentially headed to the weekly 50ema on gold. I've spent a few years talking about this retracement target to have us all mentally prepared for this moment when it eventually came. All this time later... we are probably here. During a bull run, gold never loses the weekly 50ema. If it does, that's the signal that momentum is done and the current uptrend is over. It may tick just below it (what I call a "peekaboo") but it never actually loses it. The lone exception was during the GFC when it hit the 200ema instead (and v bottomed). The GFC was of course a major crisis, but what it did was effectively truncate the existing bull run in gold, much like COVID did to a majority of the market in 2020 (get major selloff, V recover to starting line, resume any existing bull on same trajectory within prior trends like it never happened). Historically, this weekly 50ema is the most ideal retracement target in any gold bull market. Literally THE sweet spot. It's reliable, usually oversold when it happens, rebounds quickly as a springboard, and tends to only come every ~15 months or so (I don't remember exactly, been a while since I mined all of this). It's simply the ideal sweet spot for a retracement buy during a bull market. I will buy it with prejudice. Time silver the same way using gold as the guide. If we get another "GFC" and for any reason gold hits the weekly 200ema, that's the true YOLO spot. I once said a couple of years ago when analyzing gold bull market retracements (getting ready for now) that we'd go all in on the 50ema, then borrow money on leverage to buy the 200ema (if it happened). I think that's still the right way to look at it. The point I'm trying to make is borderline literal. There are no arbitrary "price" targets. We all-in buy the 50ema and we refinance our lives to buy the 200ema. Nothing in between. That's a dead zone between the two moving averages. By the time we hit the 50ema we should have an idea of whether or not we have a shot at another GFC and thus a shot at the 200ema.
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Looks like we are potentially headed to the weekly 50ema on gold. I've spent a few years talking about this retracement target to have us all mentally prepared for this moment when it eventually came. All this time later... we are probably here. During a bull run, gold never loses the weekly 50ema. If it does, that's the signal that momentum is done and the current uptrend is over. It may tick just below it (what I call a "peekaboo") but it never actually loses it. The lone exception was during the GFC when it hit the 200ema instead (and v bottomed). The GFC was of course a major crisis, but what it did was effectively truncate the existing bull run in gold, much like COVID did to a majority of the market in 2020 (get major selloff, V recover to starting line, resume any existing bull on same trajectory within prior trends like it never happened). Historically, this weekly 50ema is the most ideal retracement target in any gold bull market. Literally THE sweet spot. It's reliable, usually oversold when it happens, rebounds quickly as a springboard, and tends to only come every ~15 months or so (I don't remember exactly, been a while since I mined all of this). It's simply the ideal sweet spot for a retracement buy during a bull market. I will buy it with prejudice. Time silver the same way using gold as the guide. If we get another "GFC" and for any reason gold hits the weekly 200ema, that's the true YOLO spot. I once said a couple of years ago when analyzing gold bull market retracements (getting ready for now) that we'd go all in on the 50ema, then borrow money on leverage to buy the 200ema (if it happened). I think that's still the right way to look at it. The point I'm trying to make is borderline literal. There are no arbitrary "price" targets. We all-in buy the 50ema and we refinance our lives to buy the 200ema. Nothing in between. That's a dead zone between the two moving averages. By the time we hit the 50ema we should have an idea of whether or not we have a shot at another GFC and thus a shot at the 200ema.
Looks like we're getting close to another buying opportunity here in gold, silver, and miners. I understand the scary psychology of the trade right now. That mostly has to do with the time we've spent being "indecisive" during a correction that's done a lot of whipsaw. The duration the big swings = mental fatigue. AKA shaking the tree. That's a good place to be, and the charts look good to me. Everything's oversold, and resting at or near inflection points. Sure -- a lot of variables could bring about a large market crash and pull everything down further. The problem with that logic and/or investment strategy is that you're always waiting for something that may never come. Let your own personal appetite for risk and opportunity guide you. Personally, I may add to some positions by tomorrow. I'm interested in seeing the price action at these support levels over the course of the day and end of week. Gold still looks particularly strong. I'm willing to bet it grabs a wick soon. If we get any type of downside catalyst and lose support, we're looking at about another ~12% downside maximum in order to catch the weekly 50EMA. That's the target, wherever it is when it happens. You buy that the moment you see it, and don't think twice about it. All in. As for oil, I've always said that war (or "some bomb going off somewhere") was the single and solitary variable that could interrupt the prior precedent we'd been tracking for a bottom. War is what we got. Now that it's playing out, we will have to see how the charts behave. Comparing this massive selloff in the gold/oil ratio to prior bottoms in oil's history, I am not yet convinced that this was "the one". Meanwhile oil stocks don't look good to me in the charts. If I were in on these ~30% moves in the stocks, I'd lock up some profit. I'm not buying any anytime soon.
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The wicks in gold and silver. Notice these are the same early trendlines I had in place when we called the bottom on the October 2025 retracement. So far so good. This is what I expected.
Looks like we're getting close to another buying opportunity here in gold, silver, and miners. I understand the scary psychology of the trade right now. That mostly has to do with the time we've spent being "indecisive" during a correction that's done a lot of whipsaw. The duration the big swings = mental fatigue. AKA shaking the tree. That's a good place to be, and the charts look good to me. Everything's oversold, and resting at or near inflection points. Sure -- a lot of variables could bring about a large market crash and pull everything down further. The problem with that logic and/or investment strategy is that you're always waiting for something that may never come. Let your own personal appetite for risk and opportunity guide you. Personally, I may add to some positions by tomorrow. I'm interested in seeing the price action at these support levels over the course of the day and end of week. Gold still looks particularly strong. I'm willing to bet it grabs a wick soon. If we get any type of downside catalyst and lose support, we're looking at about another ~12% downside maximum in order to catch the weekly 50EMA. That's the target, wherever it is when it happens. You buy that the moment you see it, and don't think twice about it. All in. As for oil, I've always said that war (or "some bomb going off somewhere") was the single and solitary variable that could interrupt the prior precedent we'd been tracking for a bottom. War is what we got. Now that it's playing out, we will have to see how the charts behave. Comparing this massive selloff in the gold/oil ratio to prior bottoms in oil's history, I am not yet convinced that this was "the one". Meanwhile oil stocks don't look good to me in the charts. If I were in on these ~30% moves in the stocks, I'd lock up some profit. I'm not buying any anytime soon.
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Looks like we're getting close to another buying opportunity here in gold, silver, and miners. I understand the scary psychology of the trade right now. That mostly has to do with the time we've spent being "indecisive" during a correction that's done a lot of whipsaw. The duration the big swings = mental fatigue. AKA shaking the tree. That's a good place to be, and the charts look good to me. Everything's oversold, and resting at or near inflection points. Sure -- a lot of variables could bring about a large market crash and pull everything down further. The problem with that logic and/or investment strategy is that you're always waiting for something that may never come. Let your own personal appetite for risk and opportunity guide you. Personally, I may add to some positions by tomorrow. I'm interested in seeing the price action at these support levels over the course of the day and end of week. Gold still looks particularly strong. I'm willing to bet it grabs a wick soon. If we get any type of downside catalyst and lose support, we're looking at about another ~12% downside maximum in order to catch the weekly 50EMA. That's the target, wherever it is when it happens. You buy that the moment you see it, and don't think twice about it. All in. As for oil, I've always said that war (or "some bomb going off somewhere") was the single and solitary variable that could interrupt the prior precedent we'd been tracking for a bottom. War is what we got. Now that it's playing out, we will have to see how the charts behave. Comparing this massive selloff in the gold/oil ratio to prior bottoms in oil's history, I am not yet convinced that this was "the one". Meanwhile oil stocks don't look good to me in the charts. If I were in on these ~30% moves in the stocks, I'd lock up some profit. I'm not buying any anytime soon.
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This is correct. It's a process. Be patient.
I keep telling you the most important chart for gold is the S&P 500. Today it was down 1%. Gold dropped 3%, Silver 10%, and the HUI (miners), 5%. Like clockwork. We are waiting for the decoupling. It's coming. 🧐
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Large confluence of bullish island reversal patterns developing across gold and silver miners.
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75K Bitcoin was an easy call. It is now on the verge of losing critical support. Along the way you'd have the 50k and 31k levels to watch. Would not surprise me to see a downside target of 20k. Tech at-large is still in trouble, and due for a market event.
Looks like we called another top with exact timing, proving everyone wrong again that timing is not possible in markets. We've done this dozens of times across several sectors and timelines. Bitcoin has a date with 75k and perhaps lower. Gold and silver still on track with my original forecast to potentially bottom this week (4 of 8, see prior posts). Uranium is in synergy with gold and silver as discussed previously. This is a big deal... a far bigger deal than I've been able to get people to appreciate. This sector has a strong likelihood of bottoming with precious metals and miners at the same time. Tech has a long way to catch down. Many gaps that will be filled. So hopefully no one is surprised and were mentally prepared for this. Only those who are prepared and ready are ever able to actually take advantage of the situation. I'll be posting rock hard "buy now" prices soon for all things we cover. Right now I'm on the road for business so need time to do all of this. For us gold and silver bulls... another major move up is on the way. Being intellectually honest there's still a chance this downside move in markets is a temporary move before one more final top, but even if that happens the timeline for the top is still right now. It's unfolding. I'll remind you markets don't have to crash. Max pain is a slow gradual bear market starting from the top with no crash at all.
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Gold is truly unstoppable. By consequence, so is silver... which is saying a lot because silver has its own mutually exclusive bull case. All you have to do, is turn off all of the noise and ride. That's it. Buy it, then buy more during a selloff, and ride. Just ride. Once in a lifetime opportunity means just that.
Same thing. We will be buying the dip in silver and gold miners. Be ready, I'll be on standby to make the call.
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Correct. As everyone narrowly focuses on the price action of gold and silver, I'd been warning that the next leg down in tech and Bitcoin was coming soon and that it would coincide with a downturn in metals. It's all happening together. Gold and silver aren't weak and have not lost momentum. In fact, they're already massively oversold. In terms of time this correction won't be much different than last November. This market move could also give us the long awaited bottom in oil. I've been waiting for this and tracking it for 18 months or so. This is the big one. It's finally here.
After silver dropped 30%, now Bitcoin getting crushed. Watch the stock market this week, potential is there for a major de-risking event, even potential crash.
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This has been another IQ test proving how gullible and retarded the masses are. Great promotion/exposure campaign though.
what the actual fuck
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50% of my cash was deployed here on longs. I'll save the other 50% for calls if we go lower.
Same thing. We will be buying the dip in silver and gold miners. Be ready, I'll be on standby to make the call.
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Same thing. We will be buying the dip in silver and gold miners. Be ready, I'll be on standby to make the call.
Silver is doing what silver always does, which is predictably volatile. And it couldn't look better doing it. Big fan of this dip. Charts look outstanding. Very healthy, and true to form. Not over yet.
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Everyone on X today is selling their silver and related miners, if not expressing concern over an obvious top. Not much different than what happened when silver "struggled" at $50
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Like I said... We are only just getting started in silver. $300 is a reasonable target by 2030. Just be patient and ride. The hard part is entirely over for us veterans. Newcomers will struggle with the volatility and big picture though.
I am a huge gold bug, but I am NOT a silver bug. If there were no sentimental value to it, i would try to cash in on family silver. It is getting ridiculous...
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My DM's are beginning to explode now that silver has passed $100. There's not much to say. This is no surprise. It is a once in a lifetime bull market for a reason, and for that reason we relax, enjoy the gains, and buy any dips along the way. Not even close to over.
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Rick is clearly articulating that he's now "risk free" in his entire gold and silver miners portfolio. Maybe it's just silver. Honestly irrelevant. He doesn't believe the run is over, has topped or is or "time to sell." He is simply emphasizing his now risk free position. He has protected his initial investment and now has cash to redploy. He's sharing because he believes the wisdom of his strategy is lost on most investors. The comments prove it. I'm actually a bit taken back by the comments.
35% of all my junior miners. And recouped 100% of my investment, plus all the capital gains tax. Sold 25% of the upside, eliminated 100% of the downside
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Silver between $94 to $100 will be critical. Ignore any selling. It'll be opportunistic, especially for new longs/call options. The biggest gains are ahead of us.
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