I also have another theory about duplicates: some projects and platforms abusing nonsense slop submissions.
You disclose an e2e-proven exploit, but it gets marked as a duplicate because of the "root cause".
The slop report contains the vulnerable lines but no actual proof or has invalid claims.
With enough slop, you cover all the lines where a reasonable bug could exist. Then the project reopens the invalid slop submission, pays it as Low, and avoids paying the actual Critical.
That’s my worst nightmare. That shouldn’t happen ever.
I’d say that getting too many duplicates in old bug bounty programs is a sign that your hunting strategy needs improvement. Duplicates should be rare.